Had Rampage at 3.75 was good value. Agree that King Mo is not the most entertaining fighter.
See that DC is getting backed going to jump on him at 1.91 as that's the best price I can get. I see this fight going the same way as the first.

Bader should destroy Mo imo, really can't see Mo winning!

Loving this -105 on Cormier currently at 5D

Just put a small bet to win 0.5u at this price.

Lots of fights tonight in the smaller organizations, anyone betting?

Also probably last chance to get on JJ at -160 or better.

She should steam to -200 in the coming weeks.

gtfo

Weidman line moved back slightly, don't think it's going to get much better so adding another 9 units on Weidman. This is now my biggest MMA bet in at least a couple years, I think I have something like 17u on Weidman at +110. I'm convinced he's a moderate favourite in the fight and can't see anything changing my mind unless he looks awful at weigh ins or gets injured or something.

Also got 5.1u on Joanna -150 and 10.8u on Maia. There are some spots I just love on upcoming cards

I plan to play Whittaker too but expect his price to improve as I think Jacare is super hyped right now but matches up poorly with Whittaker. I plan to take Waterson too, not sure on line movement yet but I think that fights a flip so happy with the +120 but haven't locked it in yet. Hoping Usman opens at a bettable price still, those lines should be out soon.

Also expect to be small on JDS if it stays around current price, Rumble r1 TKO if the price is decent when the specific props out and maybe Cormier sub r2/3/4. Swanson's pretty close to a lock but close to unbettable, I like the Edgar, Cejudo and Gustafsson prices too I think, might pass on Edgar since Rodriguez is legit but he's probably not there yet. I think the Aldo and Werdum prices are good at current lines too, Werdum as a dog to Reem at 213 seems pretty tempting but no plans to tie money up for months there for the time being. Werdum as a dog to Reem seems crazy to me given he did ok on the feet when Reem was on steroids and his striking has improved since and Reem still has a bad chin even though he hasn't been knocked out in a few fights. Still a close fight but Werdum as a dog has to be value.

there was spam and now its gone haha

i really want rumble to win

I agree, I'm not a fan of Cormier or Rumble really, but Rumble's fights are very exciting and i'd love to see Jones vs Rumble as it's a fresh fight for Jones and I can't see Jones/Cormier 2 going any differently as long as Jones doesn't have too much ring rust etc.

Hoping Gustafsson can beat Glover and maybe one more contender if there's time so we can get Jones or Rumble vs Gustafsson 2 as well as both are fights i'd love to see.

Looks like 213 shaping up nicely so far, Cerrone/Lawler added plus Overeem/Werdum

I'm assuming we get Woodley/Maia added a lot if Maia beats Masvidal without taking too much damage (or Woodley/Masvidal if the reverse happens) and it looks like Conor is probably off the table since he's busy trying to fight Floyd. Maybe Garbrandt vs Dillashaw, but if the card is strong enough without it (LHW title and WW title) they might want that to headline the TUF finale that same weekend. It really should go on PPV though as it's the biggest fight they can make at BW right now (and Cruz vs the winner is then the second biggest). I wonder whether they'll give Cruz the auto rematch or have him fight Rivera or someone first. Hopefully Jones vs DC/Rumble winner headlining anyway, 2 title fights + Cerrone vs Lawler and Reem vs Werdum rubber match and one more contender fight somewhere could be enough for a 1m ppv card even without Conor and thats assuming GSP/Bisping isn't on til later in the year.

Usman and Charles Rosa lines came out and immediately got bet.

Usman already at -350 (from opening at -215)

Cormier at +105 , dont know what to think. Anyone heard anything about his camp?

A bit annoyed I mised the Usman opener was already -3xx by the time I saw it so just going to leave it now. Good news for whoever liked Strickland I guess (forget who it was). Jury unbettable too now. Everything else either seems about right, or i'm not familiar enough with the fighters to know.

No idea re: Cormier's camp, i'm still thinking Rumble by r1 KO hedged with Cormier by submission in the middle rounds but going to wait for all the props to be released

Wow, Weidman +120 now on b365

Cashed out my +110 bet there and rebet it for the same amount at +120 to lose 0.3u or so but improve my average price by a pile for a slight overall gain. Still think it's pretty crazy they let you do that, whoever sets their cashout prices is pretty lol

I just don't get how Weidman isn't at least at pickem odds and i'm pretty confident he's a favourite. Maybe if he looks terrible at weigh in or something but he looked fine on the countdown show, granted Mousasi looked good too.

Bit surprised that Rumble is -123 to Cormier's +109 now. Cormier's pretty tempting if he's had a good camp but I can't help but feel like Rumble knocks him out in r1 a lot, not sure which side will be my main play but if I do take Cormier i'm def hedging with Rumble r1 ko, or the other way i'll hedge with some Cormier sub props.

https://www.instagram.com/p/BSHJV0LBgty/

I guess my concerns about the shape Weidman is in were unwarranted. Only issue left is whether he is mentally at 100%, if so i'm confident this is one of the best EV bets ive ever made on MMA (but of course no way to know until the fight)

Pretty tempting to get on Waterson at +126 vs Rose, I think that fight's a coinflip but the price has been rising so far so i'll wait.

i like Weidman alot at that price as well. im not underestimating Mousasi as i think he's an excellent fighter who's well rounded. its a matter of Weidman matching up well w him. i just think Weidman has a clear grappling advantage and will be able to impose his will there

weidman must use his wrestling more often. mousasi is no joke and im pretty sure he has a slight advantage on the feet.

i think its going to be close as hell, no idea who will win. if i had to pick id say weidman if he employs a good game plan.

3u Waterson +126

Decided I don't think i'll get a better price and expect it to close closer to even so put the bet on now. I think the fight is a coinflip and would happily take either of them at +110 or better. Depends a lot on whether Rose has made any improvements since the Karolina fight. Waterson put on a great performance vs PVZ too, but that was a pretty good stylistic matchup for her.

Still only on Weidman for this week's card, but it's a big bet at a good price and i'm happy with it.

Pretty stoked about the 2 main fights on 210

I remember from first fight DC getting AJ down because AJ got out of balance and was rushing his shots and even slipped once or twice trying to finish the fight. If he just keeps his composure and picks his shot, I think he is way more able to defend the takedown even against DC. He has great TDD and is strong as a bear. But on other hand its insane to be able to get DC at dog money, he is top 5 p4p IMO, how can't that be +ev? But then again just like others got that feeling AJ will get this win.
First fight I did bet DC at even money against a buddy, might just propose same bet, and let him pick side this time, and just enjoy the fight .

Same with the CO ME, not sure about any bet. Mousasi has the edge on the feet and the experience and momentum. He also got pretty decent wrestling himself these days with a good sprawl, curious to see if he can defend the TDD and also make Weidman pay for his attempts with some uppercuts, knees and just have him not wanting to shoot. Weidman is really though and got a great chin combined with his good pressure and cuting of the cage, he might be able to put the pressure on and get in clinch and/or score some TD. Both fights seem super close and therefore really looking forward to them.

Might bet AJ and Mousasi within decision, or decision no bet type of bets, since I think both of them are more likely to win by KO and most likely loose if it goes to decision. I think AJ will be prepared and will pace himself a bit more, think it's less likely he will get finished again. Or I could go the other way and bet Weidman and/or DC by decision.

4 of the best fighters in the world period, regardless of weight, since I think they all would do really well at higher weights and already have proven that. Such awesome exciting fights! What a time to be alive!

Interesting line mouvement on Mousasi, now at -105 on 2 books.

I think Waterson is going to get overpowered in this fight. Rose has the height, reach, strength advantage. Only advantage for Waterson is maybe her speed/explosiveness but im not even sure about that as Rose is a very good athlete herself. I give Waterson points for being tough & scrappy but dont think it will be enough. I wouldnt put too much stock in the PVZ fight either as she has been exposed as very green. I expect a fairly dominant performance from Rose here.

Yeah I think it will come down to whether Rose can bully her. Rose has shown in the Esparza and Carolina fights that she wilts under pressure when she can't bully her opponent. Waterson is more technical both standing and on the ground but Rose is bigger and the more natural athlete.

If i'm Waterson here i'm working mainly on physical strength and conditioning for this fight. I think it could go either way as I said happy to take either of them as the dog

Glad to see steam's moved back in my direction slightly on Weidman, I have something like 14u on him at an average of about +115 now, although I lost 0.3u due to cashing out a bet so i'm starting the card slightly in the red

Cummins moving in a bit and I was leaning that way anyway and can still get a decent price at an aus book so put a bit on

Guess it'll probably come down to can he take Blachowicz down

4u Cummins +100

Weidman's still my only big play for the card, I think Usman and Jury both win a huge % but not really bettable at current lines either

Apparently DC's missed weight at 206.2 pounds and ran out of time to cut the extra

Had just fired 2u Cormier r3 +1200, 2u Cormier r4 +1600 and 2.5u Rumble by r1 TKO +275

Thinking about switching it all to Rumble wins by r1 TKO/Rumble wins by TKO now, need to figure it out. Not actually watching the weign ins just reading twitter

Alves has been steaming in a bit vs Cote, he's still a dog but not by much anymore. Missed the steam, not sure what to think of that matchup so probably leaving it alone.

If DC missed weight I wonder whether he rises to the occasion and wins anyway to get a title shot against Jones for a vacant belt (I assume he's auto stripped for missing weight and only Rumble can win the belt) or whether he crumples mentally when Rumble first hits him after already losing the belt. It has to have been an awful cut for him to have missed DC doesn't strike me as the type to miss due to being lazy

Also, Gastelum vs Anderson Silva is off, Gastelum popped for weed which is super lol he's so talented but first weight then weed, I mean it shouldn't be a PED but why are you smoking when you've got a fight announced, sigh. They're looking for a replacement to fight Anderson for the card.

DC made 205 pounds minutes later on the second try naked with the towel to great applause on the early weigh-ins.

Oh wow so he misses, with a towel and no clothes at 206.2 with 3 mins left, then returns 2 mins later and makes 205... but the video clearly shows him holding the towel and pressing down on it to reduce his weight but he officially makes it I think?

Crazy. He missed there is no way him pressing down on the towel being held up by 2 other people doesn't make the difference you can't lose 1.2 lbs in 2 minutes

https://www.facebook.com/mmafighting...5275847754479/

Rumble weighs in wearing pants at 203.8 looking slightly leaner than usual

Watch the vid in the link below. There's no way someone didn't tell him to press down on the towel being held up to try and get it to 205, you can't lose 1.2 lbs in 2 minutes when you're already naked the first time you weigh in

I'm a bit saddened by it but DC joins Romero, Jones, Brock and the rest on the cheaters list

Never been a Rumble fan but I hope he knocks DC out now even though DC is a super nice guy and all there's no way he actually made weight there

Obviously the UFC has a vested interest in keeping this a title fight wouldn't be shocked if they told him to do it

Yeah, I thought that was a little sketchy the way DC made weight. So far I'm small on Rumble as a slight underdog, and some Rumble round 1 and round 1/2 props, plus Weidman as a very slight dog plus Weidman decision and Cummngs as a slight dog. Plus I have a parlay with a few juiced favorites that I favor a lot and I like a lot of the overs so I made a big round robin out of several of those. Also have a few various props on some of the other fights. Probably not going to have individual moneyline bets on every single bout this time with the way some of these lines moved.