Judging is only wrong when I have money on the loser.

Joanna-Andrade should be good too

I hear ya. I'd like to see Maja choke him out. Or Masvidal hand him is ass. Thing I don't understand is, with a fighter like Woodley, you know he has cardio issues. I mean why would you play into his cards and not make him work for his rounds.

I'm near 100% certain that is why he does not attempt TD, it gasses him out big time. Wonderboy just literally let him recover and he did not make him work at all for 5 rounds.

Figured him out. wtf!!!!

"The Damage" is a beast. The value sweat is a lot thrilling with a huge underdog, than hoping that the slight champ doesn't get KO'ed (Overeem fight).

Almost pulled the trigged on the Swedish David as well, would have been a sweet +300.

When's the next event? (one with value bets available)

FWIW they made a pretty decent case on Heavy Hands this week that gassing out / cardio isn't actually problem for Woodley - or at least nobody's successfully making it a regular problem for him. His output doesn't decline in later rounds: if anything it goes up.

http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2017/3/1/...-fight-preview

Also just a thought, but what's more likely: that Wonderboy "let" the fight go at a slow pace, despite the fact that he's thrown a lot more volume in all of his other fights? Or that Woodley was doing something to force Wonderboy to fight at that slow pace? Did Wonderboy let him recover, or did Woodley not let him throw?

I don't think the 10 point scoring system is optimal either but the rules are the rules and a fight needs to be scored according to the rules, if it was up to me there should be half points eg 10-9.5, 10-9 or 10-8.5 etc should all be valid scores based on how much a figher won a round by, for example Woodley round 5 there is a 10-8.5 (close between a 10-8 and a 10-9)

10-10 round not a valid score unless 0 strikes or grappling is attempted or landed by either fighter and neither guy has octagon control, rounds like Wonderboy r1-2 are 10-9.5 rounds, a standard round where one fighter had an edge is a 10-9, dominant round a 10-8.5, then what we would call a 10-8 currently remains a 10-8, then somthing like Edgar/Maynard 2 round 1 or say Cyborg/Finney with 3+ knockdowns and a one sided beatdown is a 10-7.5 or something (probably wouldn't go below that or the fight can be over in a single round)

Agreed that Elkins is a beat considering the limited physical tools he has to work with, if you put him in a real athlete's body he'd have a good chance of being champ. I still don't understand how someone with such a high fight IQ in general can get such an objectively horrible tattoo. I mean there's personal taste and then there's 'how can any sane and intelligent person put that on their body'

Elkins has closed as the underdog in 7 of his 12 UFC wins and he opened as the dog in an 8th but was bet in to being a tiny fav by close. I wonder if anyone else has 7+ UFC wins as an underdog, gonna do some checking see if I can find one...

Bisping has 3 underdog wins (thought it'd be more) as of the Hamill fight, he had 3 UFC fights before that but not sure he'd have been a dog in any of them, maybe Sinosec, bestfightodds doesn't go back that far.

Dan Kelly has 6 (and he only has 7 UFC fights and has been the dog in all of them)

Anthony Perosh was the dog in 9 of his 10 UFC fights and he won 5 of them as a dog.

RDA has 5 wins as a dog

Gleison Tibau has.... 0. The longest price he's won at is exactly evens. Wow, I expected that number to be higher. He's been a favourite or a pickem in all of his UFC wins.

Joe Lauzon has 4

Cerrone has 3 in the UFC or 4 including WEC

Maia has 5

Matt Brown has 7. Finally found one tied with Elkins, although Elkins has an 8th where he opened as the dog.

Mir has 4 dating back to UFC 81, he probably would have been a dog to Sylvia and maybe some of Christison/Williams/Sims/Abbott

Jim Miller only has 3 surprisingly and 2 were his last two wins

Frankie Edgar has 5, although one of them he was only +105

Ok i'm out of likely candidates and ready to declare Brown and Elkins co-winners with 7 underdog wins at closing line each in the UFC. Dan Kelly is next with 6, although the bestfightodds records only date back to about UFC 80 so it's possible someone like Frank Mir or less likely but possible Randy Couture could have more.

next week, quite a nice card actually. I like Tim Means and Dariush .

You make a good point, Wonderboy makes the excuse that it is not us who is in there with him fighting. Look I'm not taking anything away from anybody but if you want to get in the fight business, you need to fight. Take damage, hurt your opponent more than he hurts you. If Wonderboy plays it safe and then loses fine I guess. Thing is though had he played it more aggressive, he might be the world champ now.

He was more aggressive in the last fight, but that is not what cost him that fight. He should of been aware of that. He should of had a better game plan imo.

As for Woodley's cardio, maybe he just looks like he has cardio issues. I'm pretty sure he does have issues. He does not push a high output at all. In fact he barely outputs anything. Wonderboy can output more, with that comes the obvious in that he can get knocked out. I have to ask myself am I willing to get Ko'd in order to get that belt. I know what the majority of fighters answers will be.

Wonderboy simply did not have the heart, he realised that Woodley can and will finish him. Take nothing away from Wonderboy but let's be honest here, he purposely did not engage as much or committed as much out of fear of getting rocked and finished.

Again I'm not sure Wonderboy has been rocked like he was in that first fight, before in his career. I don't know if he wants to go through that again, I don't know what it feels like either, it might be a terrible feeling. Not even sure this was the case but I thought I'd throw it out there.

Really rough start to the card but my new favorite fighter Dan Kelly beats the odds again, and big dog hits on David Teymur and Tyron Woodley in the main event - deserved or not- closed out the card strong. I wish I bet Darren Elkin straight instead of just the point spread and decision prop and went a little harder on live betting, but I'll take 5.82 units profit.

UFC 209 Results

Tyron Woodley (+130) vs Stephen Thompson $300.00 for $390.00= $390.00
Tyron Woodley +5½ points (-150) $225.00 for $150.00= $150.00
Tyron Woodley wins by TKO/KO (+380) $30.00 for $114.00= -$30.00
Tyron Woodley/Stephen Thompson Over 2½ (-182) $136.50 for $75.00= $75.00

David Teymur (+300) vs Lando Vannata $100.00 for $300.00= $300.00
David Teymur wins in round 2 (+1800) $10.00 for $180.00= -$10.00
David Teymur/Lando Vannata Over 1½ (-185) $92.50 for $50.00= $50.00
Live In-Play David Teymur (+130) vs Lando Vannata $100.00 for $130.00= $130.00

Daniel Kelly (+170) vs Rashad Evans $100.00 for $170.00= $170.00
Daniel Kelly wins in round 3 (+2100) $10.00 for $210.00= -$10.00

Amanda Cooper (-150) vs Cynthia Calvillo $112.50 for $75.00= -$112.50

Alistair Overeem (-133) vs Mark Hunt $133.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Alistair Overeem wins in round 2 (+750) $15.00 for $112.50= -$15.00
Alistair Overeem wins inside distance (+177) $40.00 for $70.80= $70.80

Marcin Tybura (-156) vs Luis Henrique $156.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Marcin Tybura wins by submission (+706) $30.00 for $211.80= -$30.00

Darren Elkins +3½ points (+205) vs Mirsad Bektic $50.00 for $102.50= $102.50
Darren Elkins wins by 3 round decision (+790) $50.00 for $395.00= -$50.00
Mirsad Bektic wins inside distance (+159) $40.00 for $63.60= -$40.00

Luke Sanders (-110) vs Iuri Alcantara $165.00 for $150.00= -$165.00
Luke Sanders/Iuri Alcantara Over 2½ (-140) $105.00 for $75.00= -$105.00

Daniel Spitz (+125) vs Mark Godbeer $50.00 for $62.50= -$50.00
Live In-Play: Mark Godbeer wins by KO/TKO/DQ/Refusal (+166) ~$32.00 for ~$53.12= -~$32.00

Paul Craig (-103) vs Tyson Pedro $103.00 for $100.00= -$103.00
Paul Craig wins by submission (+211) $25.00 for $52.75= -$25.00
Paul Craig/Tyson Pedro Over 1½ (+161) $75.00 for $120.75= -$75.00

Andre Soukhamthath (+120) vs Albert Morales $85.00 for $102.00= -$85.00
Andre Soukhamthath wins by TKO/KO (+260) $25.00 for $65.00= -$25.00
Andre Soukhamthath wins by 3 round decision (+540) $20.00 for $108.00= -$20.00

Alistair Overeem wins Fastest KO (+750) $10.00 for $75.00= -$10.00
Paul Craig wins wins Fastest Submission (+600) $10.00 for $60.00= -$10.00

Tyron Woodley wins POTN Bonus (+650) ~$10.24 for ~$66.56= -~$10.24
Lando Vannata wins POTN Bonus (+760) ~$10.24 for ~$77.82= -~$10.24
Alistair Overeem wins POTN Bonus (+500) ~$10.24 for ~$51.20= -~$10.24
Marcin Tybura wins POTN Bonus (+1300) ~$10.24 for ~$133.12= -~$10.24

Tyron Woodley/Stephen Thompson wins FOTN (+388) ~$12.80 for ~$49.66= -~$12.80
-----
Sub-Total= $667.80
Sub-Total= -~$85.76

Total Profit= $582.04

Good job Jim and those that made $$

I think people are being a bit results oriented on this Elkins outcome. He was thoroughly outclassed and barring the brain fart that happened he was drawing pretty dead there. I don't see him winning that fight more than 1/8 times. Just my opinion.

Had bets on Kelly , WB and the Laotian dude. Kelly saved my night to leave w a small 1 unit loss.

Best card in years, was just incredible.

I disagree that the Woodley Wonderboy fight was a robbery at all. There were two rounds that were fairly clearly going to be scored for Woodley the vast majority of the time and the other rounds, especially the first 2 were just so tentative by both guys, neither landed much of anything or threw much of anything, nothing landing clean by either guy. Wonderboy usually get the nod (more than 50%) in 'winning' those rounds but they are just so close to coinflips given neither did anything substantial to win those rounds that it's not a robbery imo. Woodley did nothing, but neither did Wonderboy but feint and throw 1 shot a minute that didn't land clean.

Diana white,
"I thought Thompson won 3rds to 2."

Judging was so bad and result caused so much booing in the stadium at the time of the result read out, that the lead of the executives that over see the Judges felt it right to come up after the event at the post fight press conference and field a Q&A.

When is the last time you remember that happening?

People that know, know who won that fight.

Woodley is not the world champion, Thompson controlled and execute his game plain racking up 3rds to 2rds.

Go and look at the head kick Thompson delivered. go and look at the count of kicks.


Close fight, the collapse in the 5th round of concentration with Thompson counting on the win and letting his mind leave the cage is an embarrassment to the world of Karate.


Thompson got the win thou, he did do enough over 5 long rounds which is the measure of a fight, not the final impression left on the judges at the end of the 5th. if that happens fighters will just play defensive till the 5th and then just burring all their energy off.



The fight was over FIVE ROUNDS.


Great pick, the fight is recorded in the minds of those that watched it as a Win for Thompson for all time.

Have to agree with this, over 2 fights 10 rounds, the rounds that Woodley won where pretty decisive with actual damage done, all rounds WB won where really close. but then again if we use current judging I can understand the point of view where we say WB won the last fight 3-2. It's just hard to justify since the 10-9 rounds WB won could have been scored 10-10 and should not be the same as the 10-9 rounds Woodley won.

I would be in favor of way more 10-10 rounds or way more 10-8 rounds. or judging a fight in his whole. When there are 2 really close rounds and 1 decisive rounds, to me it should be clear that the guy winning the decisive round, should win the fight. Too often this goes the other way.

Same goes when round 1 is super close and you give it to WB, then round 2 is super close again, I think its fair to give that one to Woodley to balance it out, 10-10 would be better for both rounds IMO. You cant tell me Round 1 and 2 for WB should be scored equal to round 5 for Woodley. Although that is the way it ''should'' be scored according to the flawed rules we have currently. So again I understand people saying WB won the fight under current rules.

WB won the contest. Woodley won the fight. Except it is such a tired cliche at this point that you can't leave it in the hands of the judges a case can be made that by the rules and history WB actually lost the contest because trying to coast after winning a few close rounds almost always backfires and losing that way is not surprising at this point. They even have "don't leave it in the hands of the judges" posted on the wall of the UFC gym on TUF. Bad decisions on anything remotely resembling close fights are as big an expectation as making weight. They happen literally every time. If the way it is close is because you were barely more active than a barely active opponent you have no room to claim you were robbed.

I don't understand the talk about it being hard to justify Wonderboy winning at all. The rules are the rules. Wonderboy has every right to be disappointed in that decision.

Say we made a bet. I claim I can beat you in a 100m sprint. To make sure there is less variance we agree to run five times, the winner being whoever wins more times. In the first, second and fourth sprint you win by a close margin. In the third and fifth sprint I crush you. Maybe you trip, maybe I ran myself into shape. Whatever. Now I don't want to pay up, because "your wins weren't as convincing as mine" and "if you add all the sprints together my time beats yours".

The rules are the rules.

Because there are judges who are determining the scoring based on crap criteria, opinion and with a terrible track record, unlike your analogy. There is never a single event where there is not a contested decision. If your 5 races were determined by crossing an unmarked finish line, consistency of speed and beauty of gait by three morons sitting at the starting line you may want to do better than assume they agree with your dad on the close heats.

this

what a great post, you nailed it.. it couldn't get any clearly than that.

UFC have sent a very bad message to the mixed martial arts world with this result, its tarnished them and is a huge embarrassment.

People need to have a dependable paradigm to operate in.

I won my bet but am missing a bridge jump bet for me money in my account.

Put it this way.

Why even have rounds.

Just start the fight and allow it to progress until one man is no longer able to continue.

The fight is scheduled over five rounds with points and aspect there in to gauge who is the winner.

Thompson is the new world champion, lets all just agree to leave the camp fire of UFC 209 with that being the recorded legitimate outcome of the main event.

Woodley looked like a chump in there, Thompson led and pressured the whole fight bar what, 3minutes with some push back.

Clear win for Thompson.

Balla,

1.There have been way worse decisions than this one, even if you only count the WW division. It may not even make the top three or four bad decisions out of the last few years for 170 title fights.

2. The UFC does not provide the judges so I'm confused why you blame them.

3. Wonderboy was garbage in that fight even if he "won" and got his bell rung hard after eeking out a few close rounds. It was not a championship performance by any stretch and nobody cares if he is the uncrowned king by default of being the second ****tiest in the cage at coasting for points.

The difference here is that you KNOW who wins a 100m sprint, it's not subjective. Judging who won a round is. When rounds are very close with neither fighter outlanding/outgrappling the other then it leaves lots of room for the decision on who won the round to go either way, which is what happened in this fight. When three of the rounds are so close that neither fighter definitively won then how can it be argued that it's a great robbery?

Even in the fightmetric stats: http://www.fightmetric.com/fight-det...c8c5161ea0ccb5

Wonderboy landed 1 more strike in the first and strikes were even in the second. That's something that could go either way, it's not if you or a judge scored that round for Woodley you're an idiot, it's just such a close round that you can see the point of view from both sides.

R1/2 can only go either way if you ignore the one sided octagon control entirely. Yes, striking and grappling are more important criteria, but when the striking is close as it was the fighter with octagon control and aggression (which WB obv had in r1) it'd be like saying a round can go either way when no strikes are landed but one fighter takes the other down and lays on top of him for the whole round, yes it's a ****ty round and on damage it's close, but one guy still has clear octagon control and lacking any other criteria to score the round on it still counts.

I agree re: the sprint analogy. The current judging criteria is flawed, but the judges didn't score to the criteria and they need to for consistency.

Wonderboy won under the scoring criteria (or a draw is a totally fine scorecard too if r5 was a 10-8), Woodley won the fight due to being the only one to get a knockdown.

The live odds listed on Thompson going into the 5th round is fairly telling that those "experts" believed he was up ~39 - 37 on an "average" scorecard going into that round.

It's not even up for dispute who won that fight. Like Swoop points out, its not just about damage or strikes landed, if those are even you then look at other criteria such as octagon control.

The judges ****ed up imo. With so many weird decisions, what are the chances fights are rigged or judges are betting themselves?

Sounds a bit paranoid but something to take into consideration. Think the whole world bet Wonderboy that last fight, or not, I'm not sure!!!

One thing is certain though, round 1 and 2, even though strikes were similar, no damage was done, Wonderboy pushed forward, had the centre of the octagon and Woodley was defensive and backing up mostly.

That's aggression and control and the centre of the cage for Wonderboy. Have to score it his rounds.

From memory round 1 was clearly more of a round won by Wonderboy, round 2 was a little closer but still Wonderboy's.

I don't think so. I know pasting quotes on the internet is kinda dumb in and of itself, but I always thought this well known one to hold some truth: "Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity". And in this case many other factors as well.

I think a serious look into judging would be a lot more about trying to find a way for stupid people (that's all of us, me included) to score accurately and above all else consistently. Would five judges help? What about scoring from a special camera feed in a quiet room? Could the task be reduced in subjectitity by asking judges to click a button for fighter A or fighter B at a slow or rapid pace depending on if they think they are doing a little or a lot to win at the moment? Could you reduce the complexity by asking judges to score only one thing each? Say judge 1 presses a button every time anything is thrown (activity), another when something lands (clean/effective), another when someone seemingly lands/does damage, etc. This is merely spit-balling, but I wanted to illustrate what kind of options I think should be considered.

In reality this is a research project. But the current system is archaic and actual new thinking would do the sport well.

Next task for Libratus

I think I'd prefer an honest way of judging rather than something in the heat of the moment. That's about the dumbest thing you can do to score a fight.

Best thing would be to watch the whole fight once it's done with several judges, it takes a lot more time but it will be A. thorough and B. almost always correct.

Football never had a over the line or not detector, until recently it was decided by the ref and linesman. Now we have technology that detects whether the ball went over the line or not. What's worse being robbed of a goal and potential win or waiting for 5 seconds (this is before the technology) to watch a replay? Just something they could of implemented but didn't, talking soccer now.

All sports would benefit from such technologies, problem is that most people that run sports have their head so far buried up their own ass, it's hard to talk sense with them.