Anyone else betting old man Dan Kelly at +170 against Rashad? Four time Olympian judoka Kelly somehow keeps overachieving and winning as an underdog and we have no idea how Rashad will look down at middleweight this late in his career.

Also, Andre Soukamthath made me some money in CES MMA, including multiple scheduled-for-five-round title fights. I like him as a underdog against Morales, who is not far removed from a regional level fighter himself despite having two UFC fights, including a lame draw and a loss.

Rashad is a much better price than I expected he's washed up but it's still a big step up for Dan Kelly. I've bet Kelly in all of his ufc fights so far but considering Rashad at -190 I expected the line to be -300 to -400

I would have played Kelly at like +350 but 170 is way too low

Also Elkins +290 seems great yes bektic is a great prospect but Elkins is great at grinding fights out and has a great fight iq expected him to be +200 at most.

Vannata price not as good as I'd hoped going to wait and look at itd line

Will tail on soukemath probably as Jim's preliminary analysis is Def better than my own despite the fact were on opposite sides of a few on main card

^ **** it... I fired a unit on Elkins just based on that when I saw he's at +445. How bad can it be?

So vague! Explain some more. Which bets are you on about?

Holy **** it did get that high, it's still good at +3xx but I guess i'll wait for now. Bektic has all the physical gifts to beat Elkins, but Elkins is a smart grinder with good fight IQ and if Bektic makes a mistake Elkins will be there to take him down or land punches.

Bektic is def a fav but I was prepared to bet Elkins at +200 let alone +3xx he's at now or the +450ish he got to, +375 on Bovada looks like the best price atm, should be able to get +400 at least once Matchbook puts the lines up.

Steam has come against Elkins in 7 of his last 8 fights prior to this and he's 5-3 in them with all 3 losses coming to top 15 guys (Hacran Dias is his worst recent loss)

Even if Bektic is as legit as they say there's no way he's -400, I don't think anyone outside of Aldo, Edgar, Mendes and maybe Holloway would be -400 against him at FW (Holloway being a maybe as if Elkins can take him down twice somehow he might win, Edgar/Aldo/Mendes all have TDD thats just too good to lose)

http://www.sherdog.com/news/news/UFC...ic-chas-skelly

http://www.sherdog.com/news/news/UFC...ns-chas-skelly

Fight recaps for Chas Skelly, their most highly ranked mutual opponent; Bektic didn't dominate him (granted two and a bit years ago in Bektic's case but he hasn't had any better win since)

I'm going to get on Elkins and Sucks-at-math and hoping to get a good Vannata ITD line or a performance of the night/fotn prop for that fight

Rashad at -181 seems crazy even though he hasn't had a good win other than Chael if that counts in years, Dan Kelly has never fought anyone close to Rashad's level. I keep betting on Kelly vs journeymen, Rashad is an ex champ who is in a similar spot to say Tito a couple years ago in that his best days are behind him but he's still only been fighting elite guys.

I wanted to be on Kelly at +350 or something but if I can get Rashad -175 I just have to. Yes, he's had medical issues but I mean he got cleared for the fight he must be healthy enough to fight this time. Kelly is just as old as he is, granted with less fight miles but he moves wayyyyy slower than Rashad and it's not like Rashad's TDD totally sucks. Kelly could easily catch and KO him or win a boring close decision where not much happens like the Lil'Nog fight vs Rashad but Rashad has to be a favourite on the feet to land more shots surely.

Oh I always thought you had to place bets that decrease your bankroll the most, thanks for the advice!

2u Rashad Evans at -175 at b365

Steam's been on Kelly so far, but I said i'd fire Rashad at -200 or better and Kelly at like +350 or better, I think he true line is something like -250 to -300 for Rashad if I had to guess even past his prime he's so much more talented as a fighter than Kelly is and it should show. I want Kelly to win as an Aussie MMA fan and given Kelly has made me a pile of money betting on him but I just don't see him beating anyone top 15 and Rashad is still top 15 until he loses to someone unranked imo. It's not like Dan Kelly would have beaten Ryan Bader or Glover Teixiera either. Before that Rashad looked subpar beating Hendo (but Hendo can still go, went to a close dec with Bisping and KO'd Lombard), beat Chael as he should (who has better takedowns than Kelly) and lost a ****ty close decision to Lil'Nog where no one landed anything of significance at all. Before that he lost to Jones as everyone does, and prior to that he was beating legit contenders in their primes (Davis, etc) but it's so long ago it's not really relevant

Can you imagine what the Rashad vs Kelly line would have been even a year ago? Rashad would have been -500 at least. Yes, he's declining but he hasn't lost to anyone bad yet and Kelly is old and has had knee injuries and could fall off a cliff at any time too.

One of the good things about b365 is you can cash out prefight for a 5% loss if it moves against you so i'm happy to lock it in now, and if there's something i'm missing I can just cash out lose the min and move on later.

Going to fire some Soukhamthath, Elkins and some sort of Vannata prop as well just need to determine which books and how much

Just backed Rashad at 1.57. He could have fallen off a cliff but if not then he should really dominate this fight.

Also backed Woodley at 2.4, I think this is a really close fight so really happy to back either fighter at over 2.2

Tony Ferguson is one of my favourite fighters to watch and I do lean him as the value bet against Khabib. Like someone else mentioned he is super active off the ground, very dynamic and has a great gas tank. Khabib probably has the best style to shut him down though so its a no bet for me.

Last time Rashad won a fight based on only the standup was perhaps in 2012 vs Phil Davis, another tentative striker... He's a MMA fighter in it's truest form, where he kind of depends a bit on being able to mix it up in order to win. If you take away his takedowns, you've taken a way a big part of his game.

Seems like heavy steam on Wonderboy and on Ferguson at the moment, one in my favour and one against me. A lot of movement on Bektic too. Hopefully if something's wrong with Elkins he pulls out of the fight but I can't not fire at +450 even if he's injured he's a smart gameplanner etc and he can't possibly be +450 against Bektic unless he's too injured to make the walk to the octagon.

I'm either going to take Vannata ITD or Vannata wins in r1 depending which like I think is better value once those prices are out; Teymur's never been finished and the o1.5 rounds is -200ish so hopefully I can get Vannata wins in r1 at +400 or something or ITD at +150 or something. Will probably go 2u or so there or maybe 1u each.

Starting the card off off at -0.28u due to cashing out a b365 bet and re-placing it elsewhere for a better price on Khabib

6.4u Wonderboy -123

I've detailed this a bit, basically I think Wonderboy is about a -175 favourite or so and will destroy Woodley standing enroute to a clear decision quite often, both guys get a stoppage a reasonable amount but I expect Wonderboy's hand being raised if it goes the distance a huge percentage of the time, and I think he's the slightly more likely of the two to finish as well as I think he underperformed in the first fight and Woodley overperformed, and he showed he can take Woodley's best shot and I doubt Woodley can take his best shot if something big connects.

Now that it's moved a bunch I wish I had 8 units or so here too, but I expected Khabib to steam and Wonderboy not to so what do I know.

8u Khabib -176 average
1u Ferguson wins in r1 +900
0.5u Ferguson wins in r2 +1400

Also did a full write up here; basically I think Khabib will take Tony down easier than people think and will maintain top control enroute to a lopsided UD (thinking like 50-44 style) or eventually find a dominant position and get an arm triangle or RNC or something. If Tony wins I expect it to be via rocking Khabib standing then followup punches or a darce choke, and will almost certainly come in the first two rounds (Jim disagrees which is interesting, I really expect Khabib's cardio to pass the test). I think even with his cardio Tony will be taken down at will from r3 onwards if Khabib has been ragdolling him and he will start to lack the power to finish or the energy to stuff takedowns. If he wins it's hopefully early, and I lose small for the fight which i'm ok with.

I'm hoping the recent steam towards Tony after originally going towards Khabib is just a result of his dad being unable to get a visa to come to the US for the fight; Khabib is a professional and he won't get distracted and will take care of business - if he loses it's going to be because Tony catches him with something early or because i've completely misjudged the stylistic matchup somehow, not because he has corner issues, Khabib knows what his gameplan is and fights to his strengths, he doesn't need a cornerman to tell him the gameplan is 'grab tony throw him to the mat and smesh no problem then repeat as necessary'. If Castillo can take Ferguson down, Khabib can too and will imo. Especially if Ferguson starts slow again, he has a tendency to lose the first round a lot. I think Khabib is about a -200 favourite here.

Khabib Dec is +150 on b365 and Not Khabib Dec is -146 on 5d btw if anyone wants either side of that. By definition with it being an arb at least one side has to be profitable. I'm too undecided between Khabib getting a submission or decision though to play any props would rather just have him straight up.

3u Overeem wins by decision +400
0.5u Overeem wins in r3 +1800
1u Hunt wins in r1 +300 (made it a full unit to roughly break even if Hunt crushes him quickly)

Three possibilities here imo that make up pretty much all of the likely outcomes

1) Mark Hunt finds Reem's chin and puts him to sleep. This is most likely to happen in r1 when Hunt is fresh and at his most powerful and hasn't taken much damage/loss of cardio due to being taken down etc. yet.

2) Reem goes full Econo-Reem on the back of a KO loss to Stipe where he aggressively went for the finish and we see another version of the Frank Mir/Roy Nelson fight where Reem uses a mixture of conservative distance striking and well timed takedowns to coast to a lopsided unanimous decision. Hunt has gone 5 rounds before (Bigfoot, Stipe etc) but he spent large parts of the Bigfoot fight on his back and the entire Stipe fight was a one sided beatdown. He's going to be tired after a round and a half and the chances of a finish go way down as long as Reem is careful. Something that is troubling because there are times he has not been (Browne fight although Reem gassed trying to finish, and Bigfoot which was carelessness)

3) Reem finishes Hunt either with aggression (poor gameplan to stand and trade even though he has the better offense due to Hunt's power/far superior chin) or via accumulation of damage on the ground or submission (possible, but Hunt is better at not getting submitted than he used to be, he even survived a few rounds with Struve on the ground in dominant positions at times and Struve's BJJ is better than Reem's imo). The only way I lose for the fight is outcome 3 (unless it's a third round finish which is reasonably likely if it's an accumulation of damage on the ground tko/sub finish) or if Hunt clips Reem early in r2 or Reem makes a ridiculous error late in a fight he's winning against a tired Hunt.

Disclaimer I am notoriously bad at betting on Overeem fights like Cerrone fights. I did pick Miocic against him, but I also picked Lesnar over him and took Overeem against Rothwell and Bigfoot and Browne. From memory I also picked Struve as a decent dog against him and Arlovski as a decent dog against him too. So outside of the Miocic fight, I have an awful track record betting both on and against Overeem. I really love +400 on Reem decision though, I think it'll be a decision about half the time when he wins, and I think the current line is about right, if anything leaning towards the Reem side with with Reem being a -130 to -150ish favourite, so I see Reem winning by decision 28-30% of the time or so if he wins the fight 56-60% of the time. I actually think the true price here is something like +250ish, so +400 is fantastic.

4u Evans -175

It's Rashad Evans. Yes, he's past his prime. Yes, Dan Kelly keeps winning fights he's supposed to lose. Yes, i'm a huge Dan Kelly fan and have bet on him in every fight in his UFC tenure so far. No, I don't think he can beat Rashad Evans very often, even current Rashad. His best chance is an uneventful split decision and even then, it's -175. I expected this line to be -300ish. Would have fired Kelly at +350, but have to trust my original read on the fight that Rashad is a -250 to -300 fav and bet it. Kelly is 37 too, it's not like he's a young hungry up and coming prospect. He's exceeded expectations the way Anthony Perosh did, even more impressively, but the run's going to end at some point. If not this fight then probably the next one as if he beats Rashad here he'll get someone like the loser of Gustafsson/Teixeira a lot, best case for him is Shogun or Manuwa probably if he wins here. If he surprises me, then i'll lose a few units and be happy that Dan Kelly legitimately has become a contender. Unless my estimation of Rashad's decline and Kelly's skills/running above expectation in his current run is way off, I think Rashad is more like a -250 to -300 favourite here.

2.5u Elkins +450

Even if his camp's gone poorly or something and Bektic is every bit the fighter people think he is... it's Darren Elkins, literally the most profitable fighter to have fired 1u on per fight over the course of his whole UFC tenure and i'll take Elkins fight IQ to win this fight at least a quarter of the time even against a guy with a higher ceiling. Due to the steam there may be something up with his camp or something, I was willing to bet Elkins at +200ish, I expect he's something like a +170 dog here normally and the price is WAY too high, although the steam against is the reason i'm not going bigger, if he's had a bad camp or is carrying an injury or something he could easily be a +300 or +350 dog at least so not going too big... but +450? If he's that injured/had that bad a camp he'll be pulling out before the fight and it'll be a push he'd have to be almost dead to be that big of an underdog to Bektic.

3u Soukhamthath +111 (Tailing Jim, I remember I tailed Jim one of the times he bet Soukhamthath on a minor leagues card and he impressed me and his opponent is basically a proven lower level UFC guy plus it's a dog spot. I've only seen each guy fight once from memory but I would have expected Soukhamthath to be maybe -110 here or something in a pickem, so always happy to take the dog in that spot, especially when someone who follows the lesser known fighters more closely than I do likes the spot

Will add something on Vannata and then i'm done I think. I'll probably also put something on Vannata/Teymur to be FOTN if the price is solid, Reem/Hunt will likely either be boring or Hunt wins quickly, I expect Khabib will dominate or get finished quickly as well. Woodley/Wonderboy is the other main FOTN possibility, might do both if the price is reasonable but I expect it to be very short for Woodley/WB so who knows.

Got nearly 4k/40u at risk in play on this card so far; my actual average bet across all sports is much higher than the $100 it used to be when I was using that as a unit for the thread but I hadn't really been increasing my bet sizing on MMA much, obviously i'm not using a unit as 1% of my bankroll as that would be absurd to be firing this much on this card. Still going to treat risk/win $100 as a base unit here for purposes of the thread though. I had my biggest month ever sports betting in February though (thank you five figure Auckland Nines and Sydney Sevens weekend) so i'm happy to go a bit bigger than usual as this is my favourite MMA card for betting in quite a while plus it's up there with 205 and 207 for one of the cards i'm looking forward to the most in a long time.

We really have been spoiled lately, in just the last 10 events we had 199 and 205 which were probably top 10 all time cards in terms of delivering entertainment and memorable moments, then 202 was a huge card that delivered, 200 and 207 were big on paper but didn't quite live up to the hype but were still fine, 206 was a phenomenally entertaining card that over-delivered and all of 201, 203 and 204 were at least reasonable cards as well that had some good fights. 208 was the only outright bad card we've had since UFC 199.

I'll wager 1k right now that you don't even understand what I wrote.

Bet size is the 2nd most important thing in sportsbetting but hey keep making significant mistakes on your way to losing your bankroll

What's there to explain? You want to make high variance bets your norm which is extremely ******ed

Why not just make 10 leg parlays your norm?

the bets we place are small but the payoff is huge

Who said anything about making them my norm? I said I want to bet them, simply include them as part of my portfolio.

le pen nice girl to win the French election .
£400 at 3.77 which results in £1100 profit.


£50 on Tony.F vs Khabib Nurmagomedo @ 13/8 or so.
But I have Khabib winning....

I can hear it when I see tape on the guy, he has been legit around this death cult thing for a long time and has built up a lot of weight and personal merit which is hard to shake a stick at coupled with Russian combat training, even Tony.F in his prime, its going to be really difficult to get past this guy that weighs the same as a semi truck.


I have mark hunt knocking Overeem out, at this level for mark to know absolutely that if he connects with even 20% power, Overeem is out of there, and to be built like that, with those hands.

That right there is going to be difficult for Overreem, and his legs kicks even deep into the 1st rd are not going to hold off his chin getting touched.
Hunt is legit and a brick **** house, Overeen is over and heading out the door with zero chin.



I bank Hunt here but no bets placed atm.

Don't reply to this guy. He's a troll who knows nothing about MMA or sports gambling and just comes here to embarrass himself by starting arguments with people and making cringe worthy braggadocio.

Firas breakdown of Khabib vs Ferguson:

How am I troll?

The only trolls I see are people who think betting 1 unit on every bet regardless of how much edge they have is the optimal play. Let's not even get into how likely the outcome of the event occurring is right?

If a dog and fav both have the same edge should you be betting the same amount?

You know Kelly is not the only staking method right? Hell, some people even argue against it.

Not everyone in this thread is betting exclusively to maximise profit. I think everyone understands that a bet with a 5% ROI should have more units wagered on it than a bet with a 3% ROI which in turn should have more units wagered on it than a bet with a 0.4% ROI. You are not providing any new information to anyone in this thread the way you seem to think, everyone is already aware of that and basically everyone who posts in this thread uses a variety of bet sizes, and will generally make larger unit bets on spots they think have a better ROI.

Sometimes people might even make a bet they realise probably has a -1% ROI or even -5% or whatever just for the sweat, and yes, we all know this bet should be smaller still in order to minimise the loss in EV you're paying to get a sweat on a fight that you're betting on solely for an enjoyable sweat. On most cards I can identify a few spots that I think are profitable and bet a few units there, and then when i'm watching the card I might make some tiny bets just to have a sweat on the additional fights on the card and I fully realise I am sacrificing a dollar in EV or whatever the amount is to do that. The majority of posters in the thread are recreational sports bettors, we bet on MMA because we enjoy it, and yes, we are trying to win and make money but that is not the sole purpose of the wagers. I make more money betting on a bunch of sports than MMA, but I don't spend time discussing/analysing them because I have no interest in watching the matches and i'm just betting for profit, beating closing lines and whatnot.

When I bet on a football match I have no intention of watching because the price i'm getting is beating the Pinny line, that's a bet made solely for profit. When I bet 0.1u on a prelim fight featuring two guys i've never heard of, that's a bet made purely for entertainment. When I bet a few hundred bucks on an MMA spot that isn't off market that I think is a good spot, that's a combination of betting for entertainment and aiming to make profit.

Coming into the thread to tell people they're doing it wrong is dumb, unnecessary and basically trolling. I often disagree with other posters analysis, bets, bet sizings etc, i'm not going to lose my **** at them and tell them they're terrible at sports betting, it doesn't accomplish anything and derails the thread.

Added a few more Ferguson/Khabib props because I couldn't help myself the prices are too good, I think if the fight ends it's Khabib at any time by sub (usually in the first few rounds if he gets Ferguson in a bad spot) or Ferguson via darce after he rocks Khabib.

0.5u Khabib wins by r1 SUB +3300
0.5u Khabib wins by r1 SUB +3300
0.5u Khabib wins by r1 SUB +3300
0.5u Ferguson wins by r1 SUB +3300

All b365 if anyone likes any of them. Effectively +1100 on Khabib winning by sub in the first 3 rounds, which will be over half the time he wins by submission. Ferguson wins in r1 (or r2 for that matter) at +3300 via sub is pretty insane too given his darce choke. Khabib sub lines are insane because he's likely to spend most of the rounds in top position and Ferguson could make a mistake

I quite like the Khabib by sub or decision prop at +125 but have enough there already.

I really think both guys are more likely to finish via early submission than most other methods, if it goes to deep waters there's a good chance Khabib is just winning a lopsided UD or if he gets a late finish I win anyway for the fight.

Also I cashed out and replaced my Ferguson wins in r1 prop, so i'm starting off the card down an additional 0.12u but I have it at +1200 now instead of +900

Also added 0.5u on Wonderboy wins by r1 TKO at +750. If he finishes I think it'll be in the first pretty often, and it's obviously going to be by TKO pretty much always. I think if he's winning and it's going multiple rounds he's pretty likely to cruise to a UD winning rounds the way he won rounds 2/3 in the first fight.

I also couldn't find any Vannata lines I love but his moneyline is steaming in everywhere a bit so I fired 2u Vannata at -250

The Elkins line right now seems ridiculous, but happy with what I have on it in case he's injured or whatever or maybe Bektic is way better than anyone even thinks even though he's been a hyped prospect forever.

I have so many bets on this card now it's ridiculous. Wonderboy, Wonderboy r1 TKO, Khabib, Khabib sub in r1-3, Ferguson wins in r1, Ferg r1 SUB, Ferg r2, Evans, Vannata, Elkins, Reem Dec, Reem r3, Hunt r1 and Soukhamthath. A lot of them are pretty big bets compared to my normal MMA bet sizes too.

I should finally be done now except I might bet either the Vannata/Teymur fight or the main event to win FOTN if either price is good enough or Vannata to get a POTN bonus.

Can't wait, should be a good night of fights.

Gsp bisping announced wat?!? Only reason he goes up is bc bispings the champ, doubt he would do it if it was romero...

The first lines I'm seeing have GSP as a favorite... I'm hoping there will be some wishful thinking and overhype and I can get a good price on Bisping.

Bisping is going to be awfully tempting as an underdog depending on the line. I'm not tying money up until they date gets announced though. The fight is not happening until much later in 2017.

Would think the fight happens at the big mid-summer card in July. Possibly alongside a Bones vs winner of DC/Rumble fight.

Can GSP take Bisping down? Chael had problems taking him down and that was at his peak. Bispng was younger then as well though.

And I know GSP is in phenomenal shape but ring rust is real.

It kinda makes sense he goes after the MW belt first; if he loses they can still sell a WW title fight as 'its his natural weight class he was fighting a much bigger man' whereas if he loses a WW title fight first they can't exactly sell the MW title fight as a second payday. Plus it maximises his chance of success as obv he has a better chance against Bisping than against Romero/Jacare/Rockhold etc. and Bisping is the much bigger draw and a natural heel when GSP is a natural face (even though more people like him now that he's later in his career and knocked out Rockhold). Granted Woodley is a natural heel too, but there's a good chance Wonderboy will be champ after the weekend at least according to the odds.

I don't mind Romero getting screwed as he's almost certainly a PED cheat and he's definitely an inside the octagon cheat. I do think that they should make a Romero vs Jacare 5 round rematch (can easily headline a fight night or co headline a PPV) given how close the first fight was and Romero failing a test, and the winner gets an undisputed first crack at and official number one contendership for the GSP vs Bisping winner.

If GSP is looking big i'll definitely take him at evens, but if there's a big size difference i'll be on Bisping especially as a dog
Also this Bektic line is ridiculous Elkins is +550 on 5d now, either he's injured or there's something going on surely. Bektic's been hyped forever as the best prospect in his weight class but the dude went to a majority decision with Chas Skelly who Elkins beat as well only about two years ago. I guess maybe he's a future champ and we haven't seen enough of him? It's not like Elkins is a can, he's not physically gifted but he's a good grinder with a good fight IQ.

Also Reem by decision is +500 now so i'm cashing out my +400 bet and re-firing the 3u at +500, so i'm starting off the card down almost a full unit due to cashing out bets that move against me to re place them at better odds, but at least I have the best price on everything. The b365 price is now a large arb with the not reem dec 5d line, i'm so confident it has to be hugely +EV

The -146/+132 line for GSP/Bisping actually seems very reasonable if GSP has bulked up properly for MW, but if he's still WW GSP size then it's probably a pickem considering GSP's layoff and size disadvantage.

I'm all in favour of the matchmaking, if GSP wins the MW belt then he's the champ again and the UFC is happy because he's a draw and winning a belt in a second weight class after years of layoff gives him a legit case for the GOAT crown, if he loses then the UFC can always send him back to WW and sell a title shot, plus he has the Conor superfight at WW potentially at some stage and the Anderson superfight at 185 or a catchweight if GSP doesn't win the belt (I just realised... we're seeing GSP vs Anderson for the belt if Anderson wins his next fight and GSP wins the MW title... I guess they can make Anderson vs the Weidman/Mousasi winner (more if it's Mousasi) or Whittaker in the meantime and Jacare vs Romero 2)

Also ended up adding a couple units on Khabib by sub or dec at +125. I need to stop betting on that fight now the sheer number of different bets I have there is ridiculous