Quote:
Originally Posted by JimGunn
I've been reading a lot of spirited debate on this forum and elsewhere about the upcoming UFC 209 main and co-main events bouts, both excellent fights on a great card. I believe both are competitive fights that can surely go either way but I personally like both underdogs in this case.
I thought Woodley could have and arguably should have won the last fight on the cards despite the draw result. And to my mind, 10 point must scoring system aside, he hurt Wonderboy more than vice versa. Wonderboy is also the trickier fighter with the more esoteric style and now that Woodley has spent five rounds with him, I think he'll have learned enough about Wonderboy to neutralize his dangerous striking offense this time. I also see some particular things Woodley had success with last time but didn't do enough that he can have success with on Saturday. His coaches should tell him to do more hard leg kicks and most importantly take Wonderboy down and repeat the success he had in the last fight on the ground. .
In the lightweight interim title fight, Khabib is relentless, but in my opinion Ferguson is far more dangerous overall and has more ways to win. He's dangerous even on the bottom with elbows and has enough scrambles and cardio to escape or punish Khabib from the bottom. He can threaten with submissions as well. He'll either be able to get up at some point or at worst he'll start the next four rounds on the feet. His cardio is insane, look how he fared at elevation with five hard rounds against RDA. I don't think it is any guarantee that Tony fatigues faster than Khabib, even if he spends much of the first two rounds on the bottom. I think he can hurt Khabib on the feet even in the late rounds. I would not be at all shocked to see Khabib do well in round 1 and maybe win it; a little worse in round 2 and it be debatable; and then the momentum shifting to Ferguson taking over by round 3 or 4 for a late Ferguson stoppage or decision win.
Tyron Woodley (+130) vs Stephen Thompson $300.00 for $390.00
Tony Ferguson (+175) vs Khabib Nurmagomedov $300.00 for $525.00
I think it's quite clear that under the 10 point system, the fight was rightfully declared a draw. All rounds being 10-9 except for round 4 which was a 10-8 (Woodley 1,4 and Wonderboy 2,3 and 5).
I'm also a bit sceptical to Woodley adjusting to kicking more often / go for takedowns due to Woodleys physiological build. It's not that Woodley wouldn't love to spam kicks and takedowns, it's more that he has to pace himself in order to be able to go 5 rounds. He will never be able to have the same throughput as someone like Wonderboy.