Carwin's seriously underrated these days. He went to decision with JDS (granted he got owned but not as bad as Nelson did) and he lost to Lesnar because he punched himself out in a dominating performance.

He's going to wreck Roy Nelson imo barring a big early shot by Roy, or if he can't finish and gasses before the 7:30 mark

Yeah but i mean... he's had 4 fights in 4 years. He's displayed problems with endurance (also against jds imo) and those problems probably wont get better with surgeries and long layoffs, especially at his age.

His boxing always looked sloppy. Go back and check how he fought against Gonzaga. If Gonzaga had ½ the fighting IQ of Melvin Guillard he would have won that fight.

With that said i think Nelson is grossly overrated. He's a great guy and i love how he defies odds and actually beat some good guys while being a fat middleweight, but he has a lot of holes in his game.

No idea which side is the right to bet here, but yeah, both are overrated imo.

compared to who? travis browne? lol

I don't really get where the Carwin is 'underrated' coming from. He's beat lot of bums, I'll give him that but the HW division is so much more packed and higher level than when Carwin was active. Yes, he has power, but he also has very bad cardio and I woudn't be surprised if Nelson takes him down in the 2nd round like JDS did. He's a 1st round fighter and the higher up you get, the less u can finish fighters in round one so he gets exposed a lot more. I wouldn't be surprised to see a 29-28 for Nelson, losing the 1st round and then controlling r2 and 3.

And Nelson's cardio is top notch? The dude was in one of the sloppiest fights in recent memory against Mir, just atrocious stuff.

Carwin's boxing = sloppy? For an MMA heavyweight it's pretty solid, certainly tighter than Roy Nelson's.

Belfort in to -167. Belcher hype is out of control given his only good win is Palhares, whose best win is Dan Miller

If he gets to -150 i'll be going huge, as it is i'm waiting but if it stays at -167 i'll go for 6u or so probably

You can obviously be overestimated while being a top10 or so fighter in a weak division. Mike Tyson would be a good example of such.

Carwin will never get to a title fight and will probably have lots of difficulties against most other top10 in the div. He's for sure not the destroyer he was perceived to be imo.

As if Carwins cardio being crap means i think Nelsons is good. I said both have big flaws.

Yea it's sloppy. Gets tagged lots, very slow, no head movement at all. Very stale and robotic. Lots of power but i dont find much else to like about it.
The power he possess is obviously a very strong weapon though. (and this is more a knock on Carwin than a praise for Nelson. I really have no idea which side to bet)







In the jds fight he got clowned bad, but i wont hold that against him. jds is a great mma-boxer.

Even when he does connect it's really nothing special. It's just that raw power that does it's job.



This fight could probably get very messy with both fighters gassing in the first if they dont manage to KO the other.

This could and probably is going to be a very sloopy fight. Nelson loses to fighters more skilled in the different fields of MMA(Mirs, Werdums, JDS standup) and if no obvious weakpoint(wins over Schaub, Struve, Cro Cop). He's a mid level fighter/gatekeeper and basically exposes u if u have any big weakness and I think Carwins weakness is his defensive standup and cardio. In my opinion, Nelsons standup technique is better than Carwins(albeit less power) and with that said, I see the match being a lot closer than a total destruction from either side.

Carwin's defense sucks but so does Nelson's and his offensive striking is far superior to Nelson's, I have no clue how anyone could think otherwise. Nelson throws the widest, loopiest Wanderlei haymakers. Carwin at least throws nice straight punches.

Lauzon/Maynard announced. Assume Maynard will open -330 or something. I hope Lauzon can pull it off, but it doesn't seem likely. The judges at LW are ******ed though so who knows (Guida/Maynard, Edgar/Bendo II)

I'd say i'll bet Maynard at -240 or so and Lauzon at +400, or probably stay away anywhere inbetween

Lauzon by submission might be an interesting prop.

Nah Maynard will win that one. Lauzon's chin is too questionable and Maynard can get takedowns whenever he wants.

Lauzon's only path to victory is really a submission from the bottom, a sweep or a round 1 flurry that drops maynard or leads to a clinch/throw of some sort.

I really like Lauzon and hope he pulls it off but it's a bad MU for him definitely.

Bendo (at his best) will wreck Maynard, but he's definitely a threat and will probably earn another title shot eventually, although I doubt he'll ever hold the title.

SwoopAE: you should know that Belfort have switched camps, he´s now with the Blackzillians whos got tons of problem and a terrible record.

I like nelson over carwin if he becomes a bigger dog. I think that if he can survive r1 (guy eats KO punches for breakfast), carwin will be gassed and then we will see an angry kungfu panda takeover.

I also like Lauzon as a decent dog and will bet him if he´s +250 or better

Wait, Rashad Evans and Alistair Overeem have bad records?

Vitor has enough money that he can train wherever he feels improves his chances of winning, I trust he knows what he's doing.

How exactly is Belfort going to beat him, in the standup? Unlikely. Spam takedowns? He's not an NCAA Div 1 wrestler.

I disagee with basically all of your post P9s except that Nelson could win r2/3, but I still think Carwin will be smart enough not to punch himself out this time unless he can get the finish, he cut some mass against JDS and while he lost badly, he did go all 3 rounds after getting badly hurt in r1.

I love Lauzon and hate Maynard but it's not a fight Lauzon's going to win very often, the true line is closer to -350 imo. Lauzon's going to end up on his back, and will need to get a triangle from guard basically, or a miracle sweep.

A.johnson got cut from UFC after missing weight THREE times, Overeem got suspended for using, Guillard may have gotten over his drinking problem but hes still fighting with the same lack of game planning as he always has etc etc. I just feel like alot of these flaws could have gotten fixed by a better organisation, but thats just my opinion.

I love Lauzon too so yeah might be a bit biased but he really impressed me vs Varner, way more than Maynard did with his dec win over a very poor performing Guida in his last fight. Sure hes more experienced but Lauzon is up and coming and seems to be constantly improving his striking.

Im getting ready to blow my wad on Dos Anjos vs Bocek, cant wait to see what the line comes out as.

Gotta remember Guida actually fought well (and won imo), and recently beat Pettis handily, who dominated Lauzon. MMath and all that, but level of competition is worth considering.

Varner was narrowly winning a competitive fight and his only good recent win is Barboza, who underperformed against him. Varner and Guillard are good wins for Lauzon, but he hasn't beaten anyone on Maynard's level.

AJ if you remember missed the weight and lost against BELFORT who is the guy i'm betting on. His weight cutting ridiculousness aside, a win over AJ is a better win than Belcher's had (maybe Palhares? but AJ has better wins in Brenneman and Hardy than Palhares has in Dan Miller) and that's not considering that Akiyama/Belcher was close and we saw what happened when Belfort fought Akiyama, it was a one sided beatdown.

I may be using more than my fair share of MMAth here, but the more I think about it the more Belfort is the best bet currently on offer on any card at -167, I feel like the true line is closer to -300

On another note, Mir is out to +309 against Cormier and while JDS made him look awful, JDS makes everyone look awful. You have to remember his previous win was against Big Nog, who is around on par with Cormier's best win in Barnett. While I agree Cormier matches up favourably with Mir, you can never count Mir out as he does hit hard and have the best subs in the division. His biggest weakness is obviously his wrestling and chin, but if he has the fight IQ to pull guard if he can't get it to the ground and is losing the standup then who knows. This is it for Mir remember, if he loses this his career as a contender is done, and he'll be moving down to gatekeeper status for the remainder of his career. I wouldn't count him out against anyone except JDS and Velasquez really and even against Cain he has a chance to get a sub if Cain takes him down. Overeem would probably wreck him too come to think of it given how bad Mir's chin is and how hittable he is.

Ya RDA is going to smoke Bocek on the feet.

@Pocket9s don't really think it's accurate to call Lauzon an "up and comer" lol he's been around for years and we know his ceiling by now. He will put on exciting fights and dispatch lower level guys but if you're top 20 or so in the world you will probably finish Lauzon. Once again though, I simply do not understand why people think Nelson will outlast Carwin or something. His cardio has never been shown to be any better than Carwin's.

The Blackzilians camp has a terrible record, that is indisputable. That IS concerning when looking at Belfort but hopefully he can transcend these problems in ways guys like Guillard can't because of his experience and maturity.

lmfao @ "Guida fought well" against Maynard. You must have thought Leonard Garcia deserved his decision against Nam Phan too from punching air.

I agree RDA should win that one, he's looked good lately (except for the Tibau fight)

I'll be taking RDA to -200 or so and would expect him to open in the -170 to -180 region if I had to guess

I bet he's -250

RDA was very impressive his last time out and burned me on a Njokuani bet. I thought he jumped to the next level in terms of being more well rounded and in way better shape than before. I would consider him a heavy fav over Bocek.

Comparing the fights is laughable. Guida used stick and move to win the first 3 rounds, then lost the last two due to not engaging/octagon control, but landing strikes while moving backwards for the first 3 rounds > anything Maynard did. Walking forward while taunting isn't aggression. Considering Guida was close to a +300 dog at times in betting, the fight was closer than most predicted, and I thought Guida won. All 3 Sherdog judges scored it 48-47 for Guida as well. Just because he came in with a 'cowardly' gameplan doesn't mean he didn't execute it and win. It's a sport, not sports-entertainment, and should be scored as such.

Anyone have an opinion on Travis Wiuff? He's never fought at a very high level but he has a staggering 82 professional fights (68-14) so I figure one of you might know something about him.

I ask because my analysis is telling me to bet Vegh on Saturday, but after watching some tape I am a bit apprehensive. Wiuff is basically a big strong wrestler who likes to push people up against the cage and hit them/go for takedowns. He's a bit of a grinder although his victories are evenly split between KO/TKOs, submissions and decisions. Vegh is a 3-time world kempo karate champion who has transitioned to MMA. I watched his last two fights and his basic plan is to keep people at distance and either win by decision or land a punch to the head that enables him to get a finish. His TDD is pretty good but I have no idea if he has a ground game really. His last win was an extremely unimpressive split decision (against Emanuel Newton, a guy somewhat similar to Wiuff) that the judges had 29-28, 29-28, 27-30 for him, but which I personally scored 29-28 for Newton and Sherdog's panel had for Newton in a split decision. He was fighting really passively and while his standup technique is obviously good, he never really looked like getting a finish. I'm not sure that's going to cut it against someone like Wiuff.

Any thoughts on this sort of matchup - striking expert versus wrestler? Vegh is a +150 underdog. I am certain he is an underdog in this fight and not sure about that price. A major factor in the database wanting to bet Vegh is that Wiuff is 34, however I'm concerned this will not matter if Vegh fights as passively as he did last time out.

Wiuff looked good vs mpumbu but did fade badly in the third from memory. By good I mean less bad than mpumbu though. Hes a grinder and should win if vegh doesnt push the pace though he wont ever beat anyone actually good