Site I was looking at had Khabib as favorite, but anyone know anything about Ferguson? Is he possible to win?

I guess cause of Khabib's record he's obvious favorite but I am unfamiliar with Ferguson.

Ferguson is a beast, I would not write him off too easily. I'd of thought this to be a little closer at evens. I'm not even too sure Khabib will dominate him on the ground tbh. He's got a very good chin, he will destroy Khabib standing up. Khabib known for his ground game though and that's were all his fights end up, that is why is he such a fav.

I do think this will be his toughest match up to date. Ferguson by TKO is very possible, his darce choke, which he has done often, he might not be able to pull that of on Khabib, his ground/grappling game is next level. Ferguson by points is also possible imo.

I don't think ferguson stands much chance to be honest, everyone is going on about how Michael Johnson was tagging Khabib, but Khabib himself declared he just wanted to test his standup a bit and that his corner was screaming to take Johsnon down but that he wanted to see how his standup would hold up. I think he was telling the truth. Obviously his standup is not great but I don't think he will be clowning around this time and take Ferguson down at the first opportunity available and I don't think takedowns will be superdifficult for him in this fight. When on the ground Khabib is unstoppable.

Money is flying in for Brooks now... down to 1.75 with Pinnacle.
Really surprised by this steam coming in so early...

ADDING
10 units on Brooks @2.00
10 units on McCall @ 2.20

As Stands..
3.25 units GLOVER TEIXEIRA (vs Jared Cannonier) @1.61
1.5 units ANDERSON SILVA (vs Derek Brunson) @2.30
1 unit JARED BROOKS (VS Ian McCall) @2.10
10 units on Brooks @2.00
10 units on McCall @ 2.20

I think the biggest value this card is on randy brown

I like Brown as a small favorite around -135 too. Belal won me some money when he was in Titan FC, and is a very game opponent, but is coming off a brutal KO pretty recently. Brown is improving in my eyes and fighting in his home state. 2.7u on Brown to win 2u for me.

I still can't believe Glover was -150, he's -220 now at some books and looking like it might steam even further than I expected wouldn't be shocked if he closes -250 now

Looks like my offers on Matchbook got hit on Brooks and Holm overnight so I now have 1u Brooks -101 and 1u Holm +115 as well

Here's what I have so far

5u Glover -153
2.5u Anderson +121
1u Miller +350
1u Holm +115
1u Brooks -101

Might follow the crowd in thread and take Brown too but haven't yet. Jacare sub price is disappointing so i'll pass, tempted by Holm/GDR o4.5 at -125 too but haven't hit it and leaning pass.

I know it's a flyweight fight but I also like the under 2½ in the Reis vs Sasaki fight near evens. Sasaki's last nine fights have ended under 2½ and he and large favorite Reis both have a lot of finishes for lighter weight fighters. I have 1.03 units to win 1u on this.

Brunson is damn good, and Whittaker (solid chin and amazing TDD) was the worst possible matchup for him. I think he's being grossly underestimated by the market.

I expect Anderson to get blitzed. It's not so easy to counter when you are slow and your opponent is mixing up takedowns.

When, since the Bonner fight, has a line on Anderson not been a good value for his opponent? Brunson should be in the high -200s imo.


As far as Makahachev, I expect him to win as well, but I didn't bet him when he was still -170 because I don't pay that kind of juice for guys I don't see finishing anymore. Been getting massacred by splits in the last 3 months.

I agree that Brunson is good, but his chin can be cracked - remember it's not just Whittaker who finished him (in a fight where he was winning early on before over committing and getting countered). Silva may be slower and chinnier now but he is still an amazing counter striker. He was also finished by Romero in a fight he was winning and quickly finished by Jacare, all three times he was hurt by strikes standing, and nobody is better at hurting you with strikes standing than Anderson Silva.

I bet on Bisping over Silva because he's a consistent volume striker but more importantly because he's solid defensively and doesn't chase and overcommit, guys who chase and overcommit are exactly the type of fighters who Anderson Silva has made a career out of making them look silly with counter strikes, see Forrest Griffin, Vitor Belfort, Stephan Bonnar, Chris Leben, even Nick Diaz is an offensive striker who comes forward. Brunson's plan to beating Silva isn't knocking him out on the feet, it's quickly shooting a takedown and using a conservative ground and pound strategy from top position. Yes, he could do that but does he have the fight IQ to and the ability to not eat a big shot or a knee when he shoots?

I think the fight is a pickem and would take either guy as a dog, but i'm still more confident in Silva even past his prime. Brunson is a killer yes but his best win is probably Lorenz Larkin coming off a 2 fight losing streak at the time then Uriah Hall who is basically an even more tentative and less talented Anderson with no killer instinct. He's only 2-3 against top 15 fighters and 8-1 vs unranked guys since he got into Strikeforce.

His Alvey, Hall and Herman r1 knockouts were impressive but if he presses forward aggressively and starts swinging at Anderson that's EXACTLY the place you want the fight to take place if you're Anderson Silva. If he shoots a quick takedown then as long as Silva gets to full guard he should be a favourite to see the second round where it starts all over.

The more I think about it the more I think we're seeing a finish more often than not, the only way it goes the distance is if Brunson wins a 30-27 LNP but I really doubt he can do that without engaging Anderson on the feet at some point, even against Cormier who is much bigger and much better at everything than Brunson, Anderson managed to have his moments on the feet and I don't think Brunson's chin (or body) can take a full force kick or knee from Anderson. His chin can take some jabs, but if Anderson starts landing on him he's not going to last long.

Also Anderson's chin isn't what it was, but Bisping isn't as pillow fisted as his reputation would lead you to believe, I mean he just knocked out Luke Rockhold with a combination and even though I bet Bisping in that fight, Anderson did kinda knock him out and it was only a 47-48 decision in the end, and Bisping charge forward the way Anderson likes when he's striking or go after one punch knockouts. Anderson's chin IS looking crackable but he's still only been knocked out once and it was when he got caught clowning against Weidman (yes, it's still a legitimate KO, but it's not likely that we'll see a similar situation vs Brunson) and the leg break was obviously a freak injury, yes he was losing that fight too but Chris Weidman is both a better wrestler than Brunson and also strikes a lot more similarly to Bisping coming forward with volume but not charging in recklessly and going for a one punch knockout, Weidman is more of a cage cutter looking for angles etc.

Brunson has incredible power and athleticism, but i'm not sure he has the head movement or footwork required to come forward at Anderson and knock him out regularly; if he wins I think it'll be through top control and GnP.

I just hope Anderson's serious about fighting for a few more years, if he is he has to know he needs to win here to remain relevant, if he wins this fight he's still arguably top 5-6ish in the division and can get relevant money fights with basically anyone at MW he wants, if he loses he isn't even top 10 anymore.

I think Nover is underrated and has value at +170 vs Glenn so small .5u play on him. Likewise with Lentz, even though he is back up at lightweight, his grindiness could play dividends against Makhachev, so .75u on him at +240.

Yeah, considering the fact that Madadi got down Johnson at will in r2/r3 (given Madadi is a good wrestler with a nice single leg), it doesn't tell us really much about how he will take down Ferguson. What does tell us though is the fact he did manage to takedown RDA at will and I'd say RDA has a pretty good TDD. He also had no problem with RDA ground game, though I'm not sure how RDA bottom game is compared to Fergusons. RDA is a better overall grappler than Ferguson, but Fergusons bottom game is a bit more tricky than RDA so it remains to be seen.

Thing is, Ferguson is live vs any fighter due to his chaotic style and his overall gameness in all aspects of the game. He also showed excellent gameplanning vs RDA, which is important in 5 round fights.

Since Bisping started to sit down on his punches, he's actually quite a decent power puncher.

Took De Randamie for a unit at 1.91 with Coral as they are always slow to move their odds.
Also got Miller at 4.5 and Lentz at 3.5 both for 0.5 units.

Not looked at the props yet but if I can get Boetsch KO at 10.00 at above will probably take it.

I put .25u on Boetsch KO at +890 yesterday at 5D. Didn't think that price would get better.

10th February, 2017



Feeling lost and confused. I would do it all over again but now that I've come this far I've got nothing else. There's no turning back. Anything less than absolute victory would feel like crushing defeat. No weekends off, no frozen dinners and no sitcoms with the wife and kids, no two-car garages with a Camry and a Civic, no after-work rec league and maybe a drink after, home by 9 and in bed by ten. No, there is no in-between.

After being so near victory, we have taken huge losses these past weeks, numbering in the hundreds of thousands. We've outstretched our lines, and put too much faith in men who should have never been entrusted with it. Now all we can do is place our bets and watch and hope for the best. If we've learned anything these past weeks, it's that it is out of our hands.

Wat haha

I'm usually an underdog bettor on AXS TV but I'm going with the undefeated Giles in this middleweight main event tonight. Spann has subs but he can be outgrappled and loses the big fights thus far.

LFA 3 Risk $160.00

Trevin Giles (-160) vs Ryan Spann $160.00 for $100.00

I found Brooks super unlikable during that weigh-in.

Think I am going to be on Randy after that, he looked much better than Belal.

This is all valid but remember Danny Castillo taking Ferguson down at will too, granted Ferguson won a close fight, but Castillo is a much weaker wrestler than Khabib so it's hard to say Ferguson is going to be able to stuff Khabib's takedown attempts, his best bet is to tag him as he shoots and hurt him or try and lock in a d'arce on the way down

To be honest I actually think this is a really bad matchup for Ferguson though, he's a great grappler but not as good as Khabib, he has no way to get top position, is unlikely to get the sub from the bottom and while his striking is excellent he doesn't quite have Conor level 1 punch KO power (although he could certainly TKO Khabib standing he's unlikely to put him out cold with a single punch)

Also I cashed out 2u on Silva of my 2.5 for a 0.1u loss so i'm stuck 0.1u heading into the card and currently have 0.5u on Silva at +123, will re-add the 2 units but going to throw up an offer on an exchange and try and get +145 to +150

Added another half unit on Holm +122

Still trying to get Silva +145 or so, if I can't ill just take the +135ish on offer I guess. Will hold out for a bit longer though.

^ How the heck you get Holm at 122 now? Anyway I got killed this week:

Holm +109
Silva +128
Brown -135
Brooks -120
Cannonier 189

The only line which has moved in my favor since I bet it is Brooks. Welp. Still don't understand how Holm is a dog in this fight, but I guess I'll get to see why soon enough.

2u Brunson by KO or on points 10/11
Even though Brunson has poor 'fight IQ' he's almost surely not going to believe he can strike with Silva and will most likely just be looking to implement a very heavy takedown and GnP strategy. I don't think he will have any problem at all with this as he did extremely well vs Romero and Silva was prone to getting wrestle****ed years ago when he was faster and in his prime. Though Silva is good at neutralising off his back, Brunson is strong and powerful and the chance of a KO is high given Anderson's proneness to getting rocked.

2u Jacare by sub 10/11
Just don't think Timothy will be able to stop the takedown, once he has top position, he won't be able to stop Jacare doing his thing an overwhelming % of the time.

Booked a bet for someone else who wanted De Randamie at the Pinnacle line (which was -122/+109 at the time)

Agreed, I was able to find a Jacre TKO/KO @ +500 earlier in the week. If he subs him so be it