Didn't mean to try to take it to the ground to submit her or whatever, but just get her down or turned to the fence and then getting away. Like duck under that big looping right and shoot.

Also think Radnamie is much better suited for Holm's style than Shevchenko was.

Also think Holm has faced much better competition in MMA than Randamie.

Wow, Silva out to +130, I couldn't see him climbing above +125. I mean yes, Brunson is young, but does Silva really not care anymore? Sure he could get taken down and GnP'd for a few rounds but Brunson does not have the best striking defense and while Anderson's chin isn't what it was, he's more likely to land the big shot standing, it's not like his losses to Weidman, Bisping and Cormier were to cans even if he's looked pretty bad since the Weidman 2 fight and is old. Plus it would have to be humiliating to him to get finished by a non contender, losing to champions is one thing but losing to a relative nobody coming off a loss is another thing entirely, it would start to discredit his entire legacy. Surely he doesn't want to end up like Jens Pulver.

On the plus side my Silva bet's on b365 so I can cash it out for a 5% loss if it steams hard against and re-bet elsewhere at higher odds which is pretty big incentive to take their early lines (did that a lot on the cricket this season with one of their bonus $200 if a team hits 8+ sixes and wins promo, either beating the close or cashing out for a small loss and rebetting the closer if it moved against with the promo making it +EV even if I got it wrong initially)

Makhachev steam is ridiculous, not sure what's going on with that line, I do think he should beat Lentz but the line seems to be getting pretty lopsided, I guess someone thinks Makhachev is the better wrestler in a fight likely to go the distance and be a matter of who can take who down given their fighting styles

One more line im thinking may be value now is Jim Miller; I would definitely take Poirier at evens but he's chinny, Miller has decent striking and decent submissions and if KZ can tap Poirier then Miller can too in the right position

Miller's past his prime and Poirier isn't but Miller is +350 and after a bunch of Poirier steam it seems to have come back slightly

Fired 1u Miller +350, I think he's closer to a +200 dog against Poirier and a couple years ago would have been a favourite. Also got another unit on Glover at -165 on one of the exchanges which moves my average price from -150 to -153 for 5u instead of 4u total.

Also thinking that Jacare by submission is likely to be value against Tim Boetsch, not sure it'll hit +200 or better but it should and if it does i'll be making a play there.

Considering a few other spots too but this is what I have so far

5u Glover -153
2.5u Anderson +121
1u Miller +350

Poirer got tapped due to being hurt by shots multiple times by K zombie (only been subbed once), so there's a little difference. Don't see him hurting Poirer enough to grant the sub nor the TKO, and see this going for 3 rounds. Miller only has 2 pure TKO's in his career, and they came against Gomi (which has been dropping too easily lately) and Kamal which was a legit stoppage. So that's pretty much 1 real tko stoppage in his whole career.

Just took Glover Teixeira @ 1.61 - 3.25 units to win 2.
Also looking to bet Silva and Muhammed as slight dogs later.

Added Silva +130 for 1.5 units

As I said I do lean Poirier in the fight, but +350 is a lot. Does Poirier really win the fight more than 78% of the time? If they fight 4 times and Poirier wins 3 and Miller wins 1 at this price it's profitable... yes, I like Poirier but this type of price should be reserved for a mismatch where one guy is live but only really has a puncher's chance or something. Miller has a puncher's chance but not an amazing one (Poirier coming off a TKO loss and has been TKO'd twice) and he's also live to submit him (yes, Poirier's grappling is legit but so is Miller's) and then finally, Poirier should have an edge on the feet but is hittable and if he doesn't hurt Miller early it could also go to a competitive decision, Miller did win the first round standing against Cerrone remember before Cerrone hurt him in r2 and he's submitted two legitimate BJJ black belts in Charles Oliveira (granted when he was relatively early in his career) and Fabricio Camoes (who isn't a top 15 guy but is a BJJ black belt). At the end of the day, Poirier *should* win more often than not but there's no single area he has an overwhelming advantage other than youth; he doesn't have the best fight IQ and Miller is live everywhere the fight goes plus in 3 rounds there's more variance and +350 is a lot.

It's one of those fights where if you told me the next day after I missed the event that either guy won by TKO, Sub or Decision I wouldn't be totally shocked no matter what the answer was and that generally shouldn't be the case for +350 underdogs. For example Tim Boetsch is +397 on Pinny right now on the same card against Jacare and does anyone really think he's only 2% less likely to beat Jacare than Miller is to beat Poirier? I wouldn't be too shocked if Boetsch won by TKO, but I most certainly would be if he won by sub or decision. I happen to think Jacare is slightly overrated too, but I most certainly think he's overwhelmingly more likely to win than Poirier is and the odds aren't that far apart plus it's at a higher weight class where underdogs should tend to do better on average due to more guys having one punch KO power.

Ah yeah, my mistake (thought u bet a tko/sub), I was just saying that it's more likely he decisions Poirer rather than submits him. And I do think at the given price, +350, this is a good bet.

Also agree Jacare is more likely to win than Poirer. If Jacare plays this right, he should take this to the ground and submit Boetsch easily. Boetsch has that KO power but I feel he's almost as easy as Camozzi for Jacare to sub.

Swoop why don't you play some of the more technical markets instead of just the money line. Bookies put more errors in these areas.

nice post SwoopAE,

Considering putting a cheeky bet on Ian McCall now that he's down to -106 (pick 'em) on pinnacle... but I think I'm gonna hold off for a better line. Definitely interested in this one.

Yeah you can level all sorts of criticisms at present-day Silva, but "not caring" in the cage certainly isn't one of them. Look at the way he went after Cormier in what was basically an exhibition match that nobody expected him to win. I don't know how hard he's training outside of the cage these days, and I don't know how seriously to take him when he says that crazy stuff about thinking he can get the belt back. But at no point since losing the belt would I ever accuse him of not giving his best effort inside the cage.

That said, I think all that's already baked into the price: it seems unlikely the line has been set with "Anderson is just turning up to collect a paycheck" as the baseline.

jarred brooks is quite a good fighter from what ive seen, I wouldn't put too much on mccall

So far I'm big on Glover at -150 and Brooks at -110. I agree that the line on Miller at +360 and up is pretty crazy. I'll be on that and I also have a small play on Miller by decision at +450. I'm tempted to throw a small bet on Tim Boetsch as well- I can't stand seeing everyone say he has no chance against Jacare.

I do and I will, but there can also be value in early lines sometimes (got it right on Glover, looks like I got it wrong on Anderson but fortunately 2u out of that 2.5u can be cashed out for a 5% loss if it moves far enough).

Two of my biggest hits recently have been on Waterson r1 SUB and KZ r1 TKO but those lines aren't released on b365 until closer to fight day usually. I'm always interested in the FOTN props on 5d as well but those are typically 24 hours out or so as well.

@Jim

I agree Boetsch has a chance against Jacare but we should play Boetsch TKO/KO if so right? I really doubt he outworks Jacare over 3 rounds, he can definitely knock him out but how does he submit or decision him?

Also is Miller DEC +450 really better value than Miller straight up at +350ish?

Jim is your Brooks bet a bet on the prospect, a fade on McCall or both? Can you let me know your thoughts please I really want to fade McCall too, but know next to nothing about Brooks.

McCall is past his prime but it's a very tough debut for a prospect unless he's a Jimmie Rivera style elite prospect who's just been flying under the radar

brooks is +120 now

lol

he should double up now right the bet got better

if it had edge at -110 surely it's a lot more now right

Pinny line is -106 both sides so even according to the 'just beat the pinny line' method, +120 is a solid price if you can get it.

Swoop, if I bet an underdog like Jim Miller I always make a straight ML play and not just a prop, usually some combination of both if I like a prop, say 75% ML vs 25% ratio of prop. That way I don't have that sinking feeling afterwards of picking the dog to win but losing money because he or she won by some other method than expected.

Brooks bet is both a bet on a prospect and a fade on McCall. Brooks is undersized and McCall is skilled and experienced but riddled with injuries and cage rust, so I wouldn't go too crazy on this either way. I'm only on it for 2.2 units at -110 at the moment; my Glover bet is much bigger. Brooks price has gotten slightly worse than the opener at every book I see on BestFightOdds for what that is worth. I don't see +120 available anywhere.

Jared Brooks @2.10 for 1 unit at slow moving book. Just because of the line move everywhere else and Jim being on.

I've been looking for a place with props that feels safe/has the deposit options I need, and hadn't considered bet 365 before you mentioned it. Looks promising.

They do limit if you go too big i've heard but i'm up a few k there betting MMA props with no issue so far from an original deposit of $200 and haven't been limited yet and they're letting me bet to win up to 1k etc on most stuff even as niche as MMA props. Company seems reputable compared to 5dimes which is the other best option for props probably, have never had any issues with 5d either personally, but their history as what is basically a criminal organisation run by an egomaniac is pretty well known.

The bulk of my MMA bets are made at b365/Pinny/5d/Betcris/Matchbook and sometimes on ubet (my states local tab/bookie) when they're slow to move as most of the aussie books are. 5d and b365 are definitely the two best for props.

It is possible to fly under the radar at Bet365 for a while. A fresh account only attacking small markets stands less of a chance at though. They do actively limit.

I'm lucky that the other two sports I bet there are both major aussie sports and I guess i've gone undetected although it helps i'm only up low 4 figs there, I assume by the time i'm up 10k lifetime if/whenever that happens i'll probably be limited, 10k or so seems to be about the average balance I can run up before getting limited on most aus books although no way you can bet MMA props and remain undetected that long. Also helps that I can 'advise' my gf/poker friends/etc what to bet on at those books. If I do wind up limited which I'm sure I eventually will. I'm actually shocked i'm still not limited on my own account at b365, I am at pretty much all of the other aussie books, although it's easy enough to find other people to place bets for you or place them at a betting terminal as I happen to live next to the QLD/NSW border and thus have access to both tab and ubet for up to a non limited accounts market limit if I want to make a short drive down the road. Ubet has some pretty decent slow moving MMA lines on game day too which is nice for aussies, Crown has some reasonable props too, although it'll get you limited pretty quickly.