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01-28-2017 , 10:19 PM
Amazing boxing by Masvidal , glad you guys made some $$$ I couldn't pull the trigger.
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01-28-2017 , 10:24 PM
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Originally Posted by Underrated
Balla be like :

Li Jingliang bet won
Jorge Masvidal bet won.
Francis Ngannou pick won.

lost nate vs a can..
bruce with no ground
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01-28-2017 , 10:27 PM
Man, I was counting my Masvidal wins in round 1 money there. Thanks Herb Dean! /s

Also, would like to start the granny curse. Cowboy had his grandma at the RDA title fight and lost brutally, same here.
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01-28-2017 , 10:55 PM
Woah Schevchenko via sub, big win for her
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01-28-2017 , 10:55 PM
Beautifully done, some serious humble pie served to the vixen there. Got caught like a blue belt there lol
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01-28-2017 , 11:16 PM
Switching over to boxing on Showtime now.
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01-28-2017 , 11:26 PM
Predator Vs Overeem pls
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01-29-2017 , 12:24 AM
my favorite masvidal highlight

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bpr9lPqcMDM
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01-29-2017 , 01:16 AM
Glad I didn't fire any bets tonight. A year ago i'd have snap taken Masvidal over Cerrone but I historically pick Cerrone fights badly and had won a few betting on him. I did correctly decide that Shevchenko is where Pena's win streak ends, but wasn't confident enough to pull the trigger - I will pull the trigger on Shevchenko as a dog to Nunes in a 5 rounder rematch though I think if i'm getting +150 or something. I was considering Caceres and Marquardt too but none of the spots on the card felt good enough to bet so glad I ended up passing, literally the only thing I would have got right is Ngannou TKOing Arlovski. I did consider Assuncao over Sterling as well so likely would have been on that side too but would have lost for the card overall.

Congrats to everyone that did well tonight

Somewhat tempted by Vick as a small dog to Trujillo next card but his striking is so sloppy I don't know if I can even though he will copmpletely own Trujillo if he comes to grapple.

I'm definitely going big on Wonderboy and Khabib at 209, but nothing super standing out before that
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01-29-2017 , 01:44 AM
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Originally Posted by Balla Shusher
just an observation, but I'm lumping £400 on nate and only whilst the fight is going on I am finding out Sam has been training at Alt for 9 weeks?

so what good is the MMA press to my betting picks?

mma betting picks never mentioned Sam has been training at alt for 9 weeks, ?

what's going on with important fight information pre fight?
I guess it's because the MMA media's job isn't to help us bet, it's to publish stories that get them clicks and readers?

Stories about whether a random guy on the undercard of a fight night that even hardcore fans aren't that excited about was training at altitude or not probably doesn't get them many of clicks or reads.

If you really want that kind of info, if it's an important part of how you're handicapping the fight for whatever reason, then you're probably better off looking at the fighter's own social media accounts. A quick check of Alvey's Instagram and Twitter shows yep, he was talking about training in Colorado a few weeks ago.
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01-29-2017 , 03:27 AM
I don't usually clog up the thread here with my weekly boxing plays- although I posted them all elsewhere in detail- and the boxing thread on this forum is long dead. But I had a second huge winning weekend this month just on boxing. 2017 is kicking ass so far!
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01-29-2017 , 04:40 AM
Given I know next to nothing about boxing myself i'd be more and happy to tail your picks when I watch an event, I don't mind if you post them if it's a spot you really like

Congrats on the nice week
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01-29-2017 , 09:19 AM
Congrats Jim !!! So happy to see the peeps on this forum get that $$
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01-29-2017 , 10:31 AM
Because of the Fox card and CM interview last night, it seems like the Dos Anjos news has slipped under the radar a little. He said in an interview that he is moving to 170 and nearly died from the weight cut to 155 for his last 2 fights. It sounds like he was not close to the RDA we know for his last 2 fights.

Does this take some luster off of Ferguson's biggest win? Seems like it may be another argument in favor of Khabib.
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01-29-2017 , 10:34 AM
A fight I haven't heard talked about ITT (only read last few pages) is King Mo vs Rampage. 'Page was like a 2-1 fav last fight IIRC. 'Page looked fat and out of shape at the press conference. Mo has been active and more impressive since their first meeting. I thought Mo won the first fight but didn't really have a problem with the decision.

What do you guys see the line being in the rematch? Mo seems like pretty nice value at anything around even money or better.
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01-29-2017 , 11:45 AM
It's tough, i've always thought Mo is/was one of the most overrated fighters of all time, his offensive wrestling isn't even that good and he's terrible at everything else and chinny. That said Rampage is so past his prime that anything could happen. I'd probably just take the dog if anyone is a substantial dog or leave it alone.

Mo's only top 15 win ever was Mousasi in 2010, I just can't bring myself to like him and I hope Rampage can pull off one last highlight reel KO; not going to bet on it unless either guy is a substantial dog though.
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01-29-2017 , 11:59 AM
Mo has stayed active and looked good lately though.

Won a clear decision vs Kongo and lost a close decision to Phil Davis, a fight I thought you could make a good argument he won. Think he would've matched up well with McGeary as well if he was able to get that decision.

Who did you think won the first fight between them? Not much happened but I thought Mo deserved the nod.

Also, Rampage couldn't even keep Satoshii off of him and Mo dominated him. I know MMAth is flawed but I think it does somewhat show where the 2 fighters are at now.
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01-29-2017 , 12:40 PM
Jessica Andrade line down to -350 from -185

Angela Hill is so bad, I think Andrade submits her easily or totally dominates her for 3 rounds.
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01-29-2017 , 02:19 PM
Andrade vs Hill is interesting. Andrade has the momentum and should be better everywhere although Hill has power and good striking for WMMA. Her grappling is nonexistent if Andrade gets it to the floor and the standup should be close. They both have power, the fight to not go the distance prop could be worth it at close to evens. Also definitely going to consider the Andrade SUB prop if the line is +250 or better

De Randamie is a favourite vs Holm now and to be honest i'm sort of leaning that way too, Holm is the bigger name but De Randamie's biggest weakness is grappling and while Holm has the boxing pedigree, kickboxing should typically beat boxing in a standup fight

Hard to tell what you're going to get with Holm, she owned Shevchenko for a round then faded and got lit up for the rest of the fight and only just outstruck Pennington. De Randamie's been pretty unimpressive in the UFC but her kickboxing is legit and i'm not sure Holm can exploit any of her weaknesses and Holm might be the smaller fighter for the first time in the UFC.

Not going to go big or anything but leaning De Randamie, probably by decision.

Last edited by PropPlayer; 02-04-2017 at 11:22 AM. Reason: Part of post moved to low-content
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01-29-2017 , 03:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Onlydo2days
Mo has stayed active and looked good lately though.

Won a clear decision vs Kongo and lost a close decision to Phil Davis, a fight I thought you could make a good argument he won. Think he would've matched up well with McGeary as well if he was able to get that decision.

Who did you think won the first fight between them? Not much happened but I thought Mo deserved the nod.

Also, Rampage couldn't even keep Satoshii off of him and Mo dominated him. I know MMAth is flawed but I think it does somewhat show where the 2 fighters are at now.
You forgot to mention Mo got stopped most recently in Japan by Cro Cop, a fight which I had Cro Cop as a nice underdog due to his size advantage and vastly superior striking. Even the wrestling shoes couldn't help Mo there! Anyway, it will be interesting to see the line. Either fighter as a substantial dog will be interesting in the King Mo vs Rampage rematch. Rampage had a long layoff and looked heavy for sure at the press conference.
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01-30-2017 , 10:13 AM
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Originally Posted by lvr
don't kid yourselves

all the write ups in this thread are garbage

you guys all write this drivel that most people at a sports bar talk about and think the books don't have access to this information

nobody even takes frequencies into consideration and make the bets based on one fact without even thinking if it was calculated into the odds or not

it's like the poster above who based his decision to make a bet on the fact that one fighter apparently hasn't trained at a higher altitude before

i mean cmon man wtf is going on
Well, if you watched Cain vs Werdum, you'd see that such a fact can have noticeable effect on the fight. It's all about gathering insight before a fight, just like they do with other sports, if a fighter has had an injury etc.
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01-30-2017 , 06:30 PM
Great post Kazuya...if only people would take the advice.
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01-30-2017 , 07:09 PM
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Originally Posted by Swiiftx
Well, if you watched Cain vs Werdum, you'd see that such a fact can have noticeable effect on the fight. It's all about gathering insight before a fight, just like they do with other sports, if a fighter has had an injury etc.
Yeah that's clearly the most famous example of what happens when you don't prepare for altitude, but, I think people are taking the wrong ideas away from that.

Cain is a big name and people seem to assume that if a big name like Cain didn't train for altitude then it must be normal for other, lesser-known fighters not to train for altitude either.

I'm pretty confident that the reverse is the case: the UFC isn't some amateur league and it's not a surprise where the fights are going to be happening.

So unless someone is a late replacement I think it's probably safe to assume that a UFC fighter booked on a card in Denver or Mexico City has been training for altitude and that those dumb enough not to do it (like Cain) are actually the outliers.
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01-30-2017 , 08:12 PM
OzExorcist, concerning fighters preparing for bouts at elevation, sometimes we don't have to assume or guess, savvy fans can often know or deduce whether fighters have been preparing correctly or getting acclimated in time. A recent example was this past weekend's UFC card in Denver, The Mile High City. One of the Brazilian posters at another popular betting forum who is not a pro fighter himself but who trains at the same near sea level gym as Henrique da Silva told us that he was still in Brazil with a long flight ahead of him just a few days before the fight on Saturday.

Oftentimes fighter Twitters or Instagrams will likewise paint a pretty clear picture of where and with who they are training and if they took the precaution of getting to the elevated location or a couple of weeks early or not. Naturally, what you, the bettor, do with that information in terms of fading certain fighters and betting the other side or taking ITD props or considering unders vs overs is up to you.

Of course, that kind of pertinent discussion is just more of what these gambling fetishists consider more "drivel" because it doesn't include a plethora gambling terminology nor is it goofing on other people despite having proven nothing themselves. In my experience, the people who are the loudest mouths and most obnoxious are usually blowhards anyway.
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01-30-2017 , 08:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JimGunn
Oftentimes fighter Twitters or Instagrams will likewise paint a pretty clear picture of where and with who they are training and if they took the precaution of getting to the elevated location or a couple of weeks early or not. Naturally, what you, the bettor, do with that information in terms of fading certain fighters and betting the other side or taking ITD props or considering unders vs overs is up to you.
Yep that's exactly what I'm saying - if it's important to your decision process for whatever reason then check the fighter's own social media.

I'm just also saying it's probably a mistake to assume "didn't train for altitude" is the default state for UFC fighters, especially if your reason for thinking that is just that Cain didn't do it that one time :P
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