Saw some analysis a while back and the only blanket winners were big favs either minus pts or itd that year

Haven't seen a 2016 analysis across all cards but I'd like to

Added another unit on Cruz -192 and half on tj -212 I need to parlay them play them su or play the minus pts props

Added a couple more plays, this is what I have so far (base units, so to win on favs or risking for dogs)

3.18u Cruz -190 average

2u TJ -222 average

0.28u Cruz wins in r2 +1600
0.2u Cruz wins in r3 +2800

1u Cruz + Dillashaw parlay +110

0.2u Cruz/Dillashaw/Magny/Rousey/Kim parlay +1122

0.05u Werdum/Cain is a draw +6600

May as well give my thoughts on the spots on the card there are a few other spots i'm considering and one i'm waiting until fight day/post weigh ins for.

Rousey vs Nunes

I'm higher on Rousey than most. A lot will come down to her mindset, if she's focused, determined and ready to carry out her gameplan she will win. It's a long layoff, but Rousey is a former olympian, even though she clearly has emotional issues I think she is capable of learning from her loss and gameplanning accordingly as I think she started to buy her own one in a lifetime hype.

Nunes can and will wreck Rousey standing the issue is she's not a distance fighter she's a clinch/in the pocket striker and anyone who clinches with Rousey is going to get sent for a judo ride to the ground. Nunes is a black belt and all that but will not have top position on the ground and nobody can deal with Rousey on top of them if she's capable of getting judo based takedowns.

I think Nunes is live, but see Rousey winning the fight about 2 in 3 times, usually by submission. She has a reasonable chin and ate some big shots from Holm and while Nunes has deadly power, it took a head kick to put Rousey out cold and that's not the sort of fighter Nunes is and if the fight goes to the ground even once, Rousey is probably 50%+ to get the sub

The other factor is while Rousey has somewhat suspect cardio, Nunes has verifiably awful cardio and if the fight reaches the second Nunes could be gassed and if it gets to the third she will be done.

I'm going to be playing either Rousey or Rousey by sub and also possibly a Rousey wins in r2 prop at about +700 to +800 or whatever its available at. The reason i'm waiting is that Rousey is widely hated and steam has come against her in basically all of her previous fights - I also want to make sure she seems focused/in good shape around weigh ins and during the lead up or I might chicken out if she doesn't. It's not going to be a big bet due to all of the layoff/Edmond being a ****ty coach/Ronda could be mentally broken, but i'm probably going to fire a unit or so on Rousey, hopefully at -125 or something if the line keeps moving or get Rousey sub at +150 or something and maybe some props

Cruz vs Garbrandt

Cody has to knock Cruz out in the first or he's going to be dragged into deep waters he's not ready for - we've seen his chin cracked in that amateur fight and even though

I may actually play Cruz wins ITD at +350 as well even though a 50-45 is the most likely outcome as I think that's the second most likely and I think Cruz finishes about a third to half the time when he wins. Cody fights at such a fast pace and has never been to deep waters and Cruz will be planting him on his back as the fight goes on and could easily get a RNC as we don't know how good Cody is on the ground, plus Cruz could crack his chin or make him mentally quit via GNP. Cruz is going to be hard to hit and I think he wins something like 4/5 times here, Cody sometimes knocks him out in round one but if even TJ with all of his footwork and movement took 3 rounds and a Cruz foot injury to start landing at will, I just don't think Cody can land the big shot before Cruz starts countering him. I actually think the opening seconds of the fight will be Cody rushes at Cruz swinging and Cruz changes levels and completes a takedown planting Cody on his back. The next most likely thing is Cruz circles away landing counters making Cody chase him like Condit/Diaz and then eventually gets a takedown in a scramble later in the fight.

I'm a huge Cruz fan and have gone on the record saying I think he is the actual p4p #1, although Mighty Mouse might beat him if they were the same size i'd pick Cruz in a rematch at 135 even though MM is way better than when they first fought. I also think if Jon Jones was a 135er or vice versa Cruz would be able to do to him what Machida did to Jones in r1 but without getting caught. Cruz's toughest matchup would probably be someone like Jose Aldo if both guys were the same size, a powerful fast striker with good leg kicks and elite TDD. TJ Dillashaw would also probably be a top 5 toughest matchup for Cruz and he beat him coming off a long layoff. Cruz will eventually get too old or too injured and lose, but I don't think today is the day that happens. TJ is the most dangerous fight for him at 135 and is the only fighter I wouldn't bet Cruz at -200 against probably in the divison right now (although i'd still take Cruz at evens)

Took some stabs on Cruz to win in rounds 2/3 at good prices and I may also play the -5.5 pts line if it's -120 or something.

Cain vs Werdum

Werdum is the worst matchup in the HW division for Cain but there's a big question mark over how he bounces back after the Stipe KO. I could see this being a closely contested standup war, with Cain landing more volume but Werdum landing with more power. I could see Cain taking Werdum down and winning a TKO or 30-27, or I could see him getting triangled and submitted, or guillotined again as he shoots. Ultimately I may play Werdum sub if I can get +500 or better, otherwise i'm probably going to pass. I was on Werdum the first time they fought at something like +410, I think the odds this time are closer to the true probabilities, but if Werdum is still at his best i'd lean his side at the current lines, there's just a chance the Stipe KO was the end of his prime, he is getting pretty old after all. I had a weird feeling that wouldn't go away that this fight is going to be back and forth and put a tiny bet on the draw to win a few units in case Werdum edges Cain for two rounds then gets taken down and GNP'd hard, or vice versa with Werdum dominating Cain with BJJ for a round but getting outworked in the other two.

TJ Dillashaw vs John Lineker

This one is probably even more of a lock than Cruz. Lineker, like Garbrandt, has one punch KO power but he has less speed and technique. He does however have a better chin than Cody. TJ is a pretty similar fighter to Cruz, he has more KO power but doesn't chain his striking and wrestling together as well and isn't quite as elusive defensively even though he also excels there. He should also have a size advantage whereas Dodson had a size disadvantage and TJ has improved more than Dodson in recent years by far. I could see this being a 30-25 style beatdown with multiple 10-8 rounds where Lineker is game and walks forward but eats counters nonstop while looking for a big shot he never lands. I think TJ wins this at least 4 in 5 as well and if my life depended on it I may even take TJ over Cruz as the bigger favourite as even though I think Cruz is a slightly better fighter, I also think Cody is a slightly more dangerous puncher's chance than Lineker.

I left some room to play the -3.5 pts prop, I hope it's at evens or better.

DHK vs Saffiedine

This one is tough one to call. Saffiedine has the better striking,. DHK has the better wrestling but ok striking when he isn't throwing spinning elbows at Tyron Woodley. My guy said Kim, but -125 feels only okay and i'm more of a fan of his. Could go either way and would love a breakdown from anyone who likes either side a lot.

Magny vs Hendricks

2 years ago Hendricks would have been -500, and Magny's striking did get exposed against Larkin and in r1 vs Lombard. I think the two most likely outcomes are Hendricks wrecks him with a big punch in r1, or Magny just outworks Hendricks enroute to a decision both on the feet and ground. I'm a bit tempted by Magny at evens or maybe Magny decision, USADA and bad diet have completely ruined Hendricks and he is a shell of the fighter that fought Lawler. Leaning Magny here but haven't pulled the trigger yet. Going to wait to look at Magny dec props, and will definitely livebet Magny at a long price if he loses round 1 but Hendricks looks at all tired. If Hendricks loses round 1, Magny wins easily.

Smolka vs Borg is another tough one, depends if Borg can take Smolka down at will or not I think, if he can he wins if he can't he loses. I'm leaning Smolka, both guys have disappointed me in recent outings I thought both would fight for the belt within a couple years but they've lost fights I had them pegged to win. I'm leaning towards Smolka having the better striking and having enough scrambling skill to get back up when/if he's taken down but not confident enough to bet him as a -125ish fav either.

In the rest of the fights I kind of like Cowboy Oliveira vs Means but really hope he loses as I strongly dislike him, although that said he's back at 170 for this fight isn't he so he won't have the size advantage he has at 155 (or failing to make 155 or even try). No idea on the rest, would appreciate some analysis if anyone really likes either side on any of the prelims.

Yeah I'm reasonably high on Rousey in this match too - in part for some of the reasons you mention above, and in part not.

I guess we won't know until we see her in the cage, but I'm not convinced Rousey will necessarily learn from her loss to Holm or change her gameplan in any way that's beneficial. She's still training with Edmund, whose fight IQ is less than zero. I think if she's "learned" anything, it seems to be that she needs to do less media and other stuff and care less about money. Which is all well and good, but it's not necessarily going to improve her game plan.

Fortunately though, I suspect she doesn't need an improved gameplan to beat Nunes. She can probably fall back on the same tactics that she used to run through every 135er before Holm and they'll work just fine.

FWIW, BJJ Scout has a great video breaking down this fight where he talks about Nunes definitely not being a clinch or pocket striker - and how instead she's always looking to get out of the clinch and get back to the outside to throw strikes. Also talks about how her particular methods of doing that play to Rousey's strenghts in the clinch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m3WhOryZ_OY

Agree 100% on the gas tank stuff, if she pushes the pace Nunes will likely be gassed out after the first round and whatever else you can say about Ronda, she's likely still one of the best pure athletes in the division. She'll gas if she's forced to charge blindly over and over, but I don't think Nunes will do that anywhere near as effectively as Holm did.

lineker underrated as always

I dunno - I love me some John Lineker, he's a boss. But I don't know if he's gonna be able to just charge down Dillashaw like he has his other opponents. While he still won the fight, look at the trouble he had with John Dodson. I'm probably over-simplifying here but I see Dillashaw as a bigger, stronger, all-round better version of Dodson.

Lineker could still end his night, but the odds feel pretty close to right to me in that one.

Well Dodson is faster I think than dillashaw, and even though many people think Dodson should have won on the scorecards I thought Lineker did pretty well to handle his speed, and I think he ultimately justifiably won. I think Dodson is a great fighter btw so it is not surprising to me he had trouble with him. I think probably anybody besides Cruz would have trouble with Dodson. Dilashaw is definitely more complete than Dodson and also bigger and therefore I agree that he is the favourite, but I wouldn't at all be surprised if Lineker cracks him. Lineker has never been dominated by anyone (except for bagautinov) and he has got an amazing chin. If Dillashaw will use a smart gameplan and include takedowns he could win because that is really Lineker's major weak point. I'll bet on Lineker though since I bet on him in his last 5 fights and he has never disappointed me so therefore I will be sticking with him

Interesting. I've been anti-Lineker for a long time, basically since he lost a round to Jose Maria Tome handily, Rivera decided to play Lineker's game and it became a 'lol who drops first' slugfest that could have gone either way. I'll admit the McCall win was impressive and I do think Lineker fought better than he has in a long time against Dodson, but Dodson is a natural 125er who got run out of the division after losing to the champ twice and Lineker is not a huge 135er despite his failures to make weight (they were mostly at 125, and he has shown he can fight at 125 no way TJ could ever make that cut).

Honestly I think Dodson narrowly outpointed Lineker but was somewhat scared to engage due to the size/power Lineker had over him, the decision was fine and could have gone either way (I had it 48-47 Dodson from memory) and while Dodson did beat TJ back in the day that was pre Bang Ludwig and pre TJ's striking movement/skill improvement, he was basically just a green wrestler back then.

Lineker's improved a lot too (remember Hugo Viana rocking Dillashaw and Tome outstriking Lineker for a round etc) both guys have matured and are legit contenders, but I still feel like there is this HUGE bridge in skill between Cruz and TJ to the rest of the divison and I would be shocked if Lineker even wins a round let alone wins the fight. TJ is bigger, has better wrestling, both guys have power although Lineker probably has a better chin, but TJ has better technique, movement and versatility, plus i'd argue better coaching with Bang in his corner. Look at what happened to TAM since he left, they went from contenders everywhere to Mendes getting knocked out in the first by Edgar, Faber losing to a prospect and PVZ no longer showing signs of improvement, Cody is their only guy who has lived up to expectations since Bang left and even then his best win is Thomas Almeida who himself was a prospect granted a very good one, everyone else he was supposed to knock out. Benavidez and TJ both left, once Cody loses to Cruz assuming that happens TAM will have gone from having contenders in all of the lower weight divisions to literally having zero contenders. Fili was basically a bust despite being highly touted he's shown himself to be mid level in the UFC so far trading wins and losses, Chris Holdsworth who was insanely promising probably won't ever fight again due to his concussion issues, Mendes got KO'd int he first and failed a drug test, Faber lost to a prospect and is retired, PVZ has lost to the two top 15 fighters she has faced, Castillo is done as a contender of any sort, Benavidez went to train with Bang, TJ went to train with Bang, Sandoval is 1-1 in the UFC, Ishihara lost to Artem Lobov.

Their roster has like 100 fighters on Sherdog and not a single one of them will ever hold a title (PVZ is probably their best shot because she's young and physically gifted but she needs to improve her skillset). I guess Chris Holdsworth is a legit prospect too if he ever fights again. That's basically it.

TAM has a solid brand but it's going to take a hit if Cody loses and none of their fighters can rise to contendership and I just don't see any of them doing it, nobody seems to have clearly gotten better as a fighter since Bang left on their entire roster except maybe Cody.

Maybe i'm overrating TJ and Bang Ludwig but they gave Dominick Cruz the closest fight of his UFC career, I would snap bet Cruz at -400 against Lineker and not think twice about it, so seems like TJ at -225ish also has to be value given he's a very similar fighter to Cruz, with slightly more power and not quite as good scrambles.

I'll see how the next week or so goes been on a bit of an upswing betting lately (had a great Rugby 7s tourney the other week which was one of my top 3 betting weekends ever) and the last MMA card was very good to me hitting the Gall r2 and Waterson r1/sub props so I may end up going pretty hard on TJ and Cruz if the odds stay about where they are now assuming they look good at weigh ins, I already have medium bets on both and may end up making some of the biggest MMA bets i've made in a long time, then going more like a single unit on Rousey, Kim and Magny and just making tiny 0.1u style sweat bets for the rest of the card. I honestly don't think i'd take either Lineker or Garbrandt until +500 or so. Both are good strikers with a punchers chance, but they're facing two of the five best guys as far as movement is concerned in the UFC and both TJ and Cruz have the better wrestling as well so I just can't see either of them losing except via one punch knockout and I don't think that happens more than 20% or so to either of them.

I love the over 2½ in the Dillashaw/Lineker fight at -156. That's certainly better than a juiced Dillashaw straight in my opinion. I'm tempted to also bet Lineker ML as well over +200. I think one or both bets win. Also there's a lot of talk about Cain being seriously injured and having surgery already scheduled for after his rematch with Werdum. Fabricio already beat him once and even at low elevation Werdum has value at +189 in my estimation.

If you had to pick a method does werdum finish or win a DEC? I'm considering werdum sub. Tj by decision could be value too IMO I agree about it being a decision a lot as lineker has a good chin. I also am very tempted by Cruz itd +350 as I feel like Cody may gas or give up a finish thru inexperience when Cruz takes him into deep waters and hell get frustrated if his blitzes are missing

Rousey just crashed from -160 to -120

I wonder if theres some news or it's just a huge syndicate betting a lot on Nunes

Glad I didn't pull the trigger on Rousey, this line seems too good to be true so it probably is maybe she's injured or had a mental breakdown or something. Going to pass for now see how she looks on fight day may get her as a dog at this rate. TJ and Cruz are the main value for this card though. Going to feel very silly if Rousey closes back at -160 that I didn't jump on now though.

Yeah that one surprised me when I first saw the line - it means the market is basically writing off Werdum's win the first time around as a fluke right? That seems like a dangerous assumption to be making, especially at heavyweight...

Anyone have a recomendation on a non U.S. facing site to bet on mma? From Canada.

In this spirit, what are the best US available sites for MMA betting these days?

I took Werdum at +190 after reading about Cains back problems has to be a factor in his training. Took Nunes early at +160 nice to see that come crashing in got to think money will come in on Rousey given the promotion she is getting.

5Dimes and Bookmaker plus NitrogenSports which mirrors Pinnacle lines if you want to bet in Bitcoin. 5Dimes has live lines between rounds, lots of props, and often the best odds. Bookmaker usually has lots of props and sometimes live lines.

Non U.S. facing: There are many options but Bet 365 & Unibet have a lot of good odds, lots of props and live lines plus there is SportsInteraction for Canadians which has a lot of props.

I'd recommend 5dimes, Pinnacle and bet365 as the best ones, Bet365 have a lot of WAY off market props, 5dimes have the widest selection of props and Pinnacle/5d reduced juice usually have close to the best line (Matchbook whichis an exchange is also good for this). Also Betcris is solid (bookmaker; same lines) as well.

For US Customers it's 5d, for non US makes sense to get an account at all of the above

My take:
I just would like to know if Rousey is taking this fight seriously or is she just making a one-time, "go through the motions" fight before she permanently retires. If she is back to her old form and drive she will win easily, I think. If she is just showing up for a big check, she will do everything she can in the fight to avoid hits to the face and she will eventually lose on points or give up claiming an injury or some other way. From what little recent video and recent reports of Rousey that are available, Rousey doesn't seem properly prepared. If anybody here has seen her preparing for this fight, let us know what you saw.

As a Canadian it just seems like a bad idea to bet on a site that operates in the U.S when it can be shut down by the justice dept and may or may not be reimbursed

The U.S. facing sportsbooks have set themselves up in a way that they can't simply be shut down strictly at the whim of the U.S. Justice Dept as they aren't physically in the country in any meaningful way. Really any sportsbook can shut down for a myriad of reasons and refuse to pay out funds. It's prudent to limit risk by not keeping too much in any one sportsbook.

What Jim said yes 5d isn't pinny in terms of trustworthiness just withdraw any winnings and don't leave more than a full card or twos worth of bets there

Thank you for the advice.

http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2016/12/2...abricio-werdum

im not betting cain

Cyborg fails a drug test to the surprise of absolutely no one

Pretty lol they basically create a division for her, then she can't fight for the belt, then we figure whatever she gets the first title shot, then within a week she fails her second drug test and is probably going to be suspended for a year

I think at this point it's safe to say she has not been clean for any fight at any stage of her career, turns down fight, gets first random drug test outside of camp this year, snap fails it

To be honest I don't think many fighters are clean, especially not the ones from poor countries like Brazil or Russia who have no viable economic alternative besides fighting. They would obviously risk anything possible to become better and make a living with fighting. You really think Aldo, Anderson Silva, Belfort or Noguiera just to name a few are clean?

Was that her first ooc test? I read she is the most tested athlete in the UFC in some article today.