Decided to go 1u each on Maynard -113, Curran -147 and Moreno -121 for now. Will wait and see what the lines do and for props to open for the rest, pretty sure i'm going to play the McMann and Masvidal decision lines if they're where I expect them to open. Maynard's chin is done but as Jim said Hall is the wrong type of fighter to beat him easily because he's not a big powerful puncher, Maynard is still strong for the weight class and a wrestler and is hard to submit and should have top position in scrambles more often than not. Curran is prone to making mistakes but other than the Chambers fight which she dominated she's only lost to legit fighters and she still has a lot of raw talent and should be improving as long as she doesn't get submitted she should be in good shape and Moreno beat Smolka who is legit and I keep thinking that Benoit is overrated due to what is probably a fluke KO win over Sergio Pettis in a fight he was solidly dominated in and other than that his record is pretty unimpressive.
Just remembered the Cejudo/Benavidez fight is 3 rounds not 5 so probably won't play the Benavidez ITD line after all was thinking 5 rounds when I thought that price was ok
Will take a look at the rest of the card over the weekend, happy with just the 3x 1u bets so far
According to one poster on another forum, Betway opened Rico Verhoeven -162.50 and Badr Hari +120. I haven't seen any other book open a line.
Also, Swoop, I think Kailin Curran is one of the p4p prettiest female fighters, but Jamie Moyle shouldn't be an underdog to her. Moyle is smaller (or at least shorter) but she is quite a grinder. I like Moyle a lot at +140.
I guess I saw it as a step down in competition for Curran, I don't know much about Moyle but i've seen all of Curran's fights and she's better than her record, very athletic and the Chambers loss was a fluke (and I say this as someone who has faded Curran against Felice, Chambers and PVZ). All I really know about Moyle is her record and loss on TUF to ABC.
I guess i'll see what happens with the betting lines and if money starts coming in on Moyle i'll just take the small loss and buy off at whatever the best price available is. Downside of betting too many fights (which I definitely do) is sometimes you're only very familiar with one of the fighters and think they're either over or underrated. I think Curran's gone from being definitely overrated to probably underrated now.
Is it me or does o1.5 rounds -158 look very solid in Maynard Hall as well? -133 looks like a great price Dekid. That fight seems to be very likely to go to a decision, Hall doesn't have the punching power to KO Maynard unless his chin is in even worse shape than we think and Maynard is hard to submit, plus Hall has a good ground game and should be hard for Maynard to GnP him or submit him even from top position. Fight goes to decision is +135 as well, although I think I prefer the o1.5 as there's a reasonable chance of a late submission or accumulation of damage TKO etc.
I'm also an Amanda Cooper fan and won money on her last week, but from my recollection Moyle won the second round against her on TUF and that fight should have went to a third round. I think Moyle could grind Curran out or even get a sub. At evens, I'd be hard pressed to decide, but +140 I think Moyle is the right side in this case. I'm also on the Maynard/Hall over 1½.
I was assuming Mitrione would be +200 and planning to bet him as a dog... but...
I'd snap up Fedor as a dog, Mitrione has KO power but Fedor only got knocked out by Hendo and that was via GnP not standup, he's still never been finished standing and if the fight hits the mat all Fedor has to do is touch Mitrione's neck and he starts tapping. I'm the biggest Fedor hater there is pretty much in that at least since i've been an MMA fan since about 2009 I never thought he was the clear best HW (he clearly was in pride days) and i've bet against him several times but Mitrione is nowhere near as talented as even washed up Fedor, he can knock him out standing but if he doesn't Fedor will eventually get the better of him by being a more well rounded MMA fighter.
Would cap the fight at about evens personally, either Mitrione wrecks him standing or Mitrione does something ******ed at some point as he's prone to doing and Fedor out-MMAs him despite being past his prime. Remember, this is a guy who got knocked out by Roy Nelson, decisioned by Cheick Kongo, taken down at will and submitted by Brendan Schaub and tapped the moment Rothwell touched his neck. He has some good wins knocking out Jordan, Gonzaga and Lewis but he's basically 3-5 against top 25 HWs. If Fedor comes in with a smart gameplan to shoot for a takedown at the earliest opportunity Mitrione doesn't exactly have the best TDD at least in the fights of his i've seen. If Fedor comes to stand and bang then yeah, Mitrione is the favourite but either guy could still win.
I think i'd take Fedor at +100 or Mitrione at about +130 or so personally if I had to set a line and have the other person pick the side and be stuck with a bet on the other side i'd go something like Fedor -115 Mitrione +115
I had Mitrione in that fight too. He was moving faster on the feet and doing well in the standup, then he was flailing around like a white belt trying to grapple with Demian Maia.
For Bellator 166 Friday night- Five rounds favors Joe more than three, I believe. He's not going to get thrown around like he did by Caldwell and he's more physical and a better wrestler than Dantas, although not as good a striker. I like the value at +165. Added another full unit on Warren since BM opened him at +175. I clicked on the McKee under and the confirmation so quickly I thought it was +140 still not -140. Also small bet on Reiter at +190 based on his size and record. Waiting to see the over prop on BM for the Galvao/Davis fight.
Joe Warren (+165) vs Eduardo Dantas $100.00 for $165.00
Joe Warren (+175) vs Eduardo Dantas $100.00 for $175.00
AJ McKee Jr./Ray Wood Under 1½ (-140) $140.00 for $100.00
Ben Reiter (+190 ) vs Chris Honeycutt $55.00 for $104.50
Pokerstars has lines for combat sports? I don't play card games so I have never even looked at it, and had no idea they would.
Yes they do, but they don't allow for many propbets (only for the big fights), so for most fights you can only bet on who's gonnna be the winner, the odds are usually just fine though. Since I play poker it is convenient for me to bet on Pokerstars.
So it turns out that Tim Elliott won the TUF season for the title shot and now fights Mighty Mouse on the weekend.
Is it me or would Joe Benavidez be pretty tilted at that, he beats Elliott on his CURRENT win streak, Elliott then loses to Makovsky who Benavidez ALSO beat on his current win streak, Elliott gets CUT from the UFC, then wins the TUF tourney for a title shot as a member of Team Benavidez, lol
To be fair he was doing well in the Benavidez fight until he got finished and probably shouldn't have been cut in the first place
Could be a cool comeback story like Serra-GSP, but obviously the play is Mighty Mouse minus the points if the line is at all reasonable
Opening lines for the ME
MM -1000 / Tim Elliot +487
Over 3.5R 1.52 / Under 3.5R 2.35
The las time i bet in a -1000 line i got Bispinged for a lot of money but MM is another creature, i might fire the Under 3.5R i havent seen any footage of Elliot tho
He was doing decently until the finish but he's nowhere near Mighty Mouse's level and I think MM will probably submit him at some point somewhere in the middle rounds of the fight if I have to pick a specific outcome.
I bet MM/Elliott under 4½ at +100 to win $100. Waiting to see the MM round 3, 4 & 5 props as well. Ellenberger wins by KO at +1150 is juicy for a small stab.
Dhiego Lima (+170) vs Jason Jackson $75.00 for $127.50
Andrew Whitney (-170) vs Farkhad Sharipov $85.00 for $50.00
Andrew Whitney/Farkhad Sharipov Under 2½ (+135) $40.00 for $54.00
Jack May (+135) vs Volkan Oezdemir $75.00 for $101.25
Desmond Green/Martin Brown Over 2½ (-165) $82.50 for $50.00
Hayder Hassan/Adriano Capitulino Under 2½ (+159) ~$68.07 for ~$108.23
Parlay:
Gesias Cavalcante (-335) vs Robert Turnquest + Kurt Holobaugh (-285) vs Yosdenis Cedeno $133.00 for $100.30
Bellator 166 Risk $680.50
Joe Warren (+165) vs Eduardo Dantas $100.00 for $165.00
Joe Warren (+175) vs Eduardo Dantas $100.00 for $175.00
Joe Warren /Eduardo Dantas goes 5 round distance (+140) $50.00 for $70.00
Eduardo Dantas wins by 5 round decision (+468) $25.00 for $117.00
AJ McKee Jr./Ray Wood Under 1½ (-140) $140.00 for $100.00
L.C. Davis (+135) vs Marcos Galvao $50.00 for $67.50
L.C. Davis/Marcos Galvao Over 2½ (-205) $102.50 for $50.00
Ben Reiter (+190) vs Chris Honeycutt $55.00 for $104.50
Ben Reiter/Chris Honeycutt Over 2½ (-145) $58.00 for $40.00
Legacy FC 63 Risk $50.00
Aaron Cobb (+675) vs Gerald Harris $50.00 for $337.50
Added 1u on main event u4.5 rounds -130 and 1u split between r4/5 tko and sub props for mighty mouse, tko at +6600 and +10000 and sub at +5000 and +10000 for r4/5 respectively. I'd have hit r3 too but the r3 sub prop was only +1600 doesnt seem like r3 is 3x more likely than r4 or anything so ill stick to the best EV ones
I really like the sub r4/5 props and might add more they seem way too high in a fight Mighty Mouse is imo most likely to win by sub, the tko prices are also too high but less so than the sub ones imo
I bet MM/Elliott under 4½ at +100 to win $100. Waiting to see the MM round 3, 4 & 5 props as well. Ellenberger wins by KO at +1150 is juicy for a small stab.
b365 has amazing r4/5 prices if you can get them check it out
