MMA Thread - Page 159 - Sports Betting - SportsBetting Strategy and Forum

3 was closer to bendo than to edgar but it could go either way.

1 is clear bendo, 2 and 4 is clear Edgar.
Fifth is heavily skewed towards Edgar, but he's not the first fighter to lose a round due to late "flurries".

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08-12-2012 , 12:47 AM

#3952

SwoopAE

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Quote:

Originally Posted by SCHWEDEN

no need to feel sorry for Frankie. He got a similar (if not worse) decision against bj the first time, and without that "win" he never would be where he's at today.

but give him instant titlefight vs. Aldo please.

except that he beat Penn in both fights. And Maynard in the second fight. All of the decisions in Edgars fights have been fine up until today although I personally had Maynard 2 48-46 Frankie

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08-12-2012 , 12:49 AM

#3953

PiercE

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 518

Quote:

Originally Posted by just_mo

I can't feel too bad for Frank Edgar since he robbed BJ to even get to this position in the first place.

I was really hoping to bet Diaz against Edgar as an underdog but I'll have to console myself with Aldo.

Don't know what to think about Diaz/Henderson. Been thinking for a long time that I was gonna be all over Bendo but I just don't know any more.

yeh, after that performance im liking diaz by boxing bendo the **** up and i think diaz will show up as an underdog.

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08-12-2012 , 12:49 AM

#3954

GoDeViLs

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Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 3,464

Quote:

Originally Posted by TomCowley

Am I seriously the only person who thought Bendo won (48-47)?

I think so

Like I said feel good for the ppl who had $ on bendo, doesn't change the fact that edgar should have won the fight. It was terrible judging plain and simple

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08-12-2012 , 12:49 AM

#3955

SwoopAE

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Quote:

Originally Posted by just_mo

lol BJ fans. Edgar won the fight fight.

I hope Edgar is +250 to Aldo so I can bet him, and get robbed by decision when he wins again obv

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08-12-2012 , 12:50 AM

#3956

SCHWEDEN

enthusiast

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 78

Edgar >> Diaz.
Bendo > Diaz. Probably. But i'll bet Diaz at +170 or more i think and I'll root for him regardless.

Aldo vs. Edgar i really have no idea.

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08-12-2012 , 12:50 AM

#3957

SwoopAE

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Quote:

Originally Posted by PiercE

yeh, after that performance im liking diaz by boxing bendo the **** up and i think diaz will show up as an underdog.

I actually expect Bendo to wrestle**** Diaz, but if he doesn't, Diaz is going home with the belt.

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08-12-2012 , 12:50 AM

#3958

SCHWEDEN

enthusiast

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 78

Quote:

Originally Posted by SwoopAE

except that he beat Penn in both fights. And Maynard in the second fight. All of the decisions in Edgars fights have been fine up until today although I personally had Maynard 2 48-46 Frankie

You are in the minority if you feel he beat Penn in the first fight.
He clearly beat him in the rematch.

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08-12-2012 , 12:53 AM

#3959

SCHWEDEN

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Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 78

and for the stats-nerds that don't want to revisit the fight to realize penn won- and use fightmetric as crutch,
http://blog.fightmetric.com/2010/08/...ic-report.html

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08-12-2012 , 12:56 AM

#3960

GoDeViLs

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Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 3,464

u mad?

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08-12-2012 , 12:56 AM

#3961

just_mo

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Quote:

Originally Posted by SwoopAE

lol BJ fans. Edgar won the fight fight.

I hope Edgar is +250 to Aldo so I can bet him, and get robbed by decision when he wins again obv

lol you are the blind fan. You are literally like the only person besides the ******ed judges who scored that for Edgar.

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08-12-2012 , 01:22 AM

#3962

SwoopAE

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Only watched Penn/Edgar 1 once fwiw so my opinion could change rewatching but from memory I had it 48-47 Edgar. As you said though i'm a fan so not objective. This time though Edgar clearly won, and one robbery doesn't make the next robbery any more justified.

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08-12-2012 , 01:52 AM

#3963

just_mo

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It does make it so I don't have to feel bad for him though. Because as I said if not for his initial robbery he would haven't even made it to this spot. What goes around sometimes really does come around I guess.

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08-12-2012 , 05:49 AM

#3964

ChrisV

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Quote:

Originally Posted by ChrisV

YTD: 4-2 +0.96u (13u) +7.4%

2-star plays

Henderson v Edgar (3 units) 1.527
Kuiper v Hamman (2 units) 1.930 (BEST BET)
Perez v Stone (2 units) 1.88

1-star plays

Holloway v Lawrence (1 unit) 1.965
Hayden v Bermudez (1 unit) 3.61
Pague v Camus (2 units) 1.562
Lentz v Mitsuoka (1 unit) 1.266

5-2, +3.432u (12u)

Overall 9-4, +4.392u (25u), 17.6% ROI.

Best Bets: 2-0
3-star plays: 2-0
2-star plays: 4-2
1-star plays: 3-2

I didnt see R4-5 of Benson - Frankie so can't comment on how rigged it was, but it was clearly not a good bet. The Pague one was bad too. Was happy with the rest. The Hayden one wasn't great but when taking underdogs of that size I can't have too critical a perspective on the fight.

I ended up betting Cerrone and Shields too for reasons unrelated to the DB, so I had a nice card. If I had my time over I might not bet Cerrone. Was happy to stay away from the Okami fight.

Last edited by ChrisV; 08-12-2012 at 05:56 AM.

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08-12-2012 , 06:39 AM

#3965

Swiiftx

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I remember watching BJ Edgar 1 and thought it was a robbery. 2nd time Edgar beat him easy though. This fight, Hendo Edgar was really close and in those fights where it goes either way, I have no real problem as it is subject to what you think scores more points. I personally thought Hendo damaged Edgar more and I'm not a real fan of Edgars point fighting. If it was up to me, fighting would be scored on the Unified Rules of Stockton(http://www.urbandictionary.com/defin...0of%20Stockton). With that said, according to UFC rules, if Edgar had won, I would have been alright with it. I mean anytime you don't win a round/fight convincingly, decisions are going to be subjective.

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08-12-2012 , 08:12 AM

#3966

ashecounty

adept

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 1,038

Quote:

Originally Posted by GoDeViLs

only 2 ko's for donald...he must need to be rocked hard to bring out the killer instinct

last thoughts on hendo/edgar guys?

After he rocks someone Cerrone goes for the choke. He was setting up the RNC when the fight was stopped.

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08-12-2012 , 08:21 AM

#3967

ashecounty

adept

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 1,038

I had it 48-47 Henderson. IMO he won 1,3 and 4. I don't see how everyone here is so sure Frankie won round 4. Without the commentary round 4 was edged out by Bendo. Henderson landed much more solid shots. I just can't award many points for three punch combos that only hit gloves and air.

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08-12-2012 , 09:09 AM

#3968

AlanDyer

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Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 4,682

With a judging criteria and setup like MMA uses, close decisions going "the wrong way" is only a natural outcome.

If Edgar wants to "win" matches, he has to take it out of the judges hands, or push for a better system of judging. Otherwise it's going to be split decision wins or losses all the way..

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08-12-2012 , 09:11 AM

#3969

Onitsuka

adept

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 742

People still going on about Edgar vs Penn lol.

Edgar clearly won that fight and he clearly won last night. I didnt have any play on him or particularly like him as a fighter so no bias at all.

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08-12-2012 , 09:37 AM

#3970

DjSkyy

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Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 2,735

biggest bet was on shields, felt good about it.

last minute degen bet no guillard +295...felt ok about it, i guess...honestly i thought cerrone was a pretty sure thing but couldnt will myself to accept -365 on a guy i dont like :/

also bet smooth -210 at the last second...and after watching the fight, i feel this was a pretty huge blunder. Frankie really brought it. i had it 48-47 frankie, but wasnt terribly surprised that the champ got the nod from lolmma judging.

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08-12-2012 , 12:18 PM

#3971

Onlydo2days

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Thoughts on Bones/Hendo? I know -620 is steep but I kinda feel like Bones is 95%+ to win this.

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08-12-2012 , 12:35 PM

#3972

Swiiftx

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Originally Posted by Onlydo2days

Thoughts on Bones/Hendo? I know -620 is steep but I kinda feel like Bones is 95%+ to win this.

He is imo. Hendo is going to get taken down with ease as soon as he tries to launch an offensive and then worked on for a min or so till he gets dead tired and bruised up like hell, after that, he's either going to get submitted or tap due to strikes like shogun did. I think the fight is going to look a lot like when shogun faced jones.

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08-12-2012 , 12:54 PM

#3973

just_mo

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Hendo's gas tank is atrocious, really among the worst out there. His takedown defense is not particularly good. His sub defense is not particularly good.

This isn't going to end well for him but the odds are extremely steep. Propping Jones by some kind of finish is probably your best bet, as I REALLY don't see Hendo hearing the final bell too often. Even if Jones doesn't really turn up the offense (a la Evans fight), Hendo is going to gas so badly in the last two rounds that he will eventually get stopped.

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08-12-2012 , 01:25 PM

#3974

Onlydo2days

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Quote:

Originally Posted by just_mo

Yeah think Jones has to be hurt going into the fight or something to lose....

Other than a total haymaker I don't see how Hendo wins. While he has had a great career, he has lost his more high profile fights in the UFC like Silva, Rampage.

I'm gonna lay the -620 and buy Hendo the biggest upset in UFC history!

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08-12-2012 , 02:18 PM

#3975

Swiiftx

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Quote:

Originally Posted by just_mo

This, if you're going to bet on jones, bet by finish bc I don't see Hendo lasting 5 rounds. Hendo is too aggressive and is going to be coming too close to Jones where they will end up in a clinch and he'll get taken down.

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