Ferguson should get the titleshot ahead of Khabib imo, he simply has the better record, more wins and has been more active than Khabib.

I tend to agree because he now has the same RDA win that Khabib has, although Khabib does have the lure of being undefeated

I'd be fine with Khabib sitting out til a title shot if he beats Johnson, yes he's been inactive but they're the clear top two contenders, after that no one else has a legitimate claim (Diaz coming off a loss, RDA coming off 2 losses, Barboza is 3-2 in his last 5 with two losses to top 10 guys, Johnson will be coming off a loss if he loses to Khabib and Chiesa doesn't have a top 5 win yet)

I'd also be fine with Khabib vs Nate Diaz for #1 contender while Ferguson fights the Conor/Alvarez winner in say January, either gives Khabib another top win, Khabib has the backstory with Diaz from their brawl and if Diaz wins you make the rubber match with Conor assuming he's both won and defended the belt, and if Khabib wins then he gets the Conor fight as the undefeated elite wrestler etc

If Johnson wins against Khabib, you set up a rematch with Nate Diaz for #1 contender imo and give Barboza a filler fight if Conor is champ, or if Alvarez is you set up Johnson vs Barboza 2 instead.

Yeah I got that once and redscreened it 7 or 8 more times. I guess that was an "Accept any price change" spot with a line starting around evens. I hope they keep it around beyond 205 too.

Yeah that all sounds right... but you know if Conor wins the belt and he stays at 155 they'll totally find a way to set him up against Barboza.

And I think I'd be fine with it. Barboza is legit and that fight would be fun as hell. There's the sticking point where he's clearly not the next guy in line but apparently we're not supposed to care about that stuff these days :P

Ferguson has more exciting fights than Barboza, plus he plays an excellent villain

If they want to keep Khabib away from Conor and the belt, Ferguson is the logical choice, he's an exciting fighter and an excellent heel plus he's more than earned the shot (Khabib has too with a win over Johnson)

Khabib will be 8-0 in the UFC, undefeated and with two top 5 wins

Ferguson will be 12-1 in the UFC with a 9 fight winning streak and two top 5 wins as well

Pretty impressive and they both deserve a title shot, assuming Khabib wins his next fight

By the time they've both had their shots some combination of Barboza, Diaz, Johnson, Dariush and Chiesa can fight each other, the winners fight, and the winner of that fight will be a deserving #1 contender by then

Great fight yday I'm a big tony fan was happy to lose my 100 on rda ko, swoop are you still taking action on that khabib wonderboy n some1 else not to lose a single round at 205 bet? And what price are you offering?

I wouldn't load up on Vannata as Makdessi is a horrific style matchup for him

I think it was Edgar from memory. Let me have a think about it and I'll see if I can come up with a fair line. I'll take +800 if u want the action on all 3 parlayed or any two of them at +400 for up to 100 quote to book, one judge has to score any completed round in any fight for the opponent for your side to win or opponent gets a finish which counts as winning the round

Evans-Kennedy is off, due to some weirdness or medical issue with Rashad getting a NY licence...

http://www.mmafighting.com/2016/11/8...d-from-ufc-205

Sucks that fight is off. But all in all, this card has been fortunate that it's pretty much stayed intact.

Also don't understand how these things don't get sorted much further out in advance. It's friggin fight week ffs.


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Too bad, I liked the value on my action on Evans at +205. Kennedy hasn't fought in a long time and I thought Evans would be faster.

That's a pity. Hopefully a strong 205 card can cover my oops lol polling bets today

further reading clicky



god bless all UFC fans that bet trump, Trump is going to be your president.

have a wonderful xmas all ufc fans and spread the love, lot of GOOD to do in 2017 people, white, black, Hispanic, Chinese, legal migrants. respect for law and order, respect for the police and the military. respect our elders and those that are masterful.


Protect the order of law people.

god bless Amerrica.
god bless UFC fans that voted trump, god bless each and every one of you.

Historic polling errors are fun. At least I put a decent chunk of my Clinton bet on the popular vote prop which is going to get there so I lose less than I could have (lol systems where the popular vote winner loses and lol pollsters bricking hard), hope Trump does well as President and can stand up to the religious right but i'm skeptical, time will tell. Grats on your win Balla.

Anyway back on topic

Gastelum dec seems tempting at +333 but havent fired yet

I quite like Weidman DEC too at +240

Still waiting to fire Karolina and/or Karolina +5.5 pts once Joanna steams more

Not sure if I like Edgar decision or Edgar -3.5 pts more

I do like the Khabib -3.5 pts line as he'll probably either win all 3 rounds/finish or lose but I have a pile on ML already

No idea what to make of Pennington/Tate, line seems about right with Tate coming off the big loss

I do really like Wonderboy -5.5 pts at -130, although on ML too and the price difference isn't that huge since I got was -188 or so

Shame we lost Rashad/Kennedy, but not the end of the world card is still amazing

Been so long, since I've gotten this pumped for a Card. Will spew hard and go wayyyyy bigger than my casual sweat bets. Setting aside 2k for bets this weekend.

Not sure what's the smartest/best way to bet, but to start, here's what I'm thinking. Need some advice on how to place wagers.
(Using 3books but Pinny is main as most of my roll is there so straight bets will be made there, props & parlays on other spots)

Not expecting to win, will just be a big sports fan this week and enjoy the event.

Straight & Prop bet budget: 1.1k
(Still deciding the amount to bet on each prop)
(Embedded has been boring but still I'm glued to all the fight week hype! Can't wait)

Alvarez by Decision
McGregor by KO
McGregor win rd. 1
McGregor win rd. 2
McGregor to win


Romero by KO
Romero win rd. 1
Romero win rd. 2
Weidman to win


Woodley by KO
Woodley win rd. 1
Woodley win rd. 2
Wonderboy to win
Wonderboy by KO


Gastellum by KO
Cerrone to win


Michael Johnson by KO


Stephens by KO
Edgar by Decision




Parlays & Rrobin Budget: 900

150
10 Edgar, Weidman, Wonderboy, McGregor,

15 Edgar, Weidman, Wonderboy,
15 Edgar, Weidman, Cerrone
15 Edgar, Weidman, McGregor

20 Edgar, Weidman
25 Edgar, Cerrone
25 Edgar, Mcgregor
25 Edgar, Wonderboy

200
25 Weidman, Wonderboy, McGregor, Khabib
25 Weidman, Wonderboy, McGregor
30 Weidman, Cerrone
30 Weidman, Wonderboy
30 Weidman, McGregor
30 Weidman, Natal
30 Weidman, Khabib

150
15 Wonderboy, McGregor, Cerrone
15 Wonderboy, McGregor, Khabib
15 Wonderboy, McGregor, Natal
25 Wonderboy, McGregor
25 Wonderboy, Cerrone
30 Wonderboy, Khabib
25 Wonderboy, Natal

200
20 Joanna, McGregor
20 Joanna, Wonderboy
20 Joanna, Weidman
20 Joanna, Cerrone
30 Joanna, Edgar
30 Joanna, Khabib
20 Joanna, Natal

200
20 Khabib, Joanna, McGregor, Wonderboy, Weidman, Edgar
30 Khabib, Joanna, Wonderboy
30 Khabib, Joanna, Weidman
30 Khabib, Joanna, Cerrone
30 Khabib, Joanna, Edgar
30 Khabib, Joanna, Natal
30 Khabib, Joanna, McGregor


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Parlay 1

Johnson by Dec
Joanna ko or sub
Weidman vs Romero over 2.5

100 to win 3,780

Parlay 2

Romero by Dec
Kastelum by Dec
Eddie Alvarez outright

100 to win 5,280

Parlay 3

Cerrone Dec
Thompson Dec

100 to win 1180

Parlay 4

Woodley outright
Khabib Dec
Tate Dec

100 to win 1,590

Joanna by ko or sub
Thompson by Dec
Khabib by Dec
Eddie outright

100 to win 6300

Key in MMA betting is finding value in the odds... No value in taking McGregor as odds are too low

I like Joanna a lot in this fight against another pure striker

Thompson vs Woodley is a toss up... Can see woodley finishing with Wonderboys chin but I favor a Wonderboy Decision win... Woodley doesn't get finished and I see wonderboy employing the same strat as Rory Macdonald did...

Romero vs Weidman... not much value in weidman... Can see romero pulling off a dec win here... Wrestling is a wash and I feel he will land the powerful accurate shots opposed to weidmans volume bully style offensive striking... Close fight but due to odds.. Can't pass up on romero by Dec

Kelvin vs Donald... Toss up imo... Can see either fighter winning... Neither one ever gets finished i expect that streak to continue.. Hedging both fighters here by dec is a safe play

Tate vs Raqel... Raqel is on a nice streak and has fought Holm to a split before... Tate is coming off that vicious loss to Nunes... Close fight to call but Tate by decision at 2.6 to 1 isn't bad... Raqel by decision isn't bad either at i would assume is around 5 to 1.

Johnson vs Khabib... Tougher fight then most are giving credit for... Johnson has under rated wrestling with good striking and is very fast... Can for sure see him getting a nod here... Especially at 7 to 1 odds.. Can't pass it up... Khabib now working at aka for awhile so i expect his striking to be improved but will for sure be looking for the take down constantly... Hedging both fighters here is smart especially the bookies are giving Johnson not much respect.

The key is to find good value in the odds... You have to punish the bookies for laying too much odds... Anything under 2 to 1 in mma is absolutely pointless if you want to make money... You will get punished in the long run

In this sport we all know anything can happen... You have to find value when bookies make mistakes... I feel this weekend they have made a lot of them by giving too much odds on certain outcomes...

My above parlays are a general outline to what I'm thinking for Saturday... First time posting in this thread specifically... I look forward to making money with you all

I have won 120k in the last year with this style of betting

This is actually happening today (Thursday) in Israel for tape delay broadcast on Spike TV Friday evening in North America. Not going big on this card as I'm not going to even be watching "live" on tape delay Friday evening. I believe Douglas Lima near 2 to 1 has value if he comes in healthy with his knee rehabed in this rematch. Israeli fighter Noel Lahat & Scott Cleve probably goes the distance. I'm making small stabs at + money on the under 1½ and under 2½ with Georgi hopefully subbing his opponent early as he is wont to do over more well known competition and Lena finishing her Venezuelan opponent pretty clearly brought in to make her look good before the mid third round.

Bellator 164 Risk $344.90

Douglas Lima (+190) vs Andrey Koreshkov $100.00 for $190.00

Noad Lahat/Scott Cleve Over 2½ (-175) $87.50 for $50.00

Georgi Karakhanyan/Kirill Medvedovski Under 1½ (+135) $74.07 for $100.00

Lena Ovchynnikova/Karla Benitez Under 2½ (+120) $83.33 for $100.00

So far got Joanna at 1.3 and Woodley by KO at 5.0.

Don't usually like betting heavy favourites but at womens straw weight your not going to get many flash knockouts and JJ skill level is way above Karolina so I like those odds.

What do you guys like more, Edgar by decision or Edgar -3.5 points? I think a 30-27 Edgar is by far the most likely outcome, just trying to decide if 29-28 Edgar (Stephens clips him early) or Edgar finishing is the more likely outcome

Might add some Weidman by decision and possibly a Romero wins in r1 hedge if the price is good enough

Still tempted by Karolina but i'll probably only go very small and partial unit. I think Joanna 48-47 or 49-46 is most likely. If Karolina gets above +400 i'll have to though, it'll be a competitive fight and if so thats too good a price to turn down, even if Joanna outclasses her i'd be shocked if KK doesn't win at least 1 round.

Miesha Tate line is getting pretty tempting too, she has better wrestling and more experience than Pennington, Pennington has strength and power but moves slowish and Tate can probably hang on the feet and has a wrestling/grappling edge if she can find takedowns. In to -165 now, I didn't like the -200ish it opened at but it's starting to get very tempting, I think Tate winning a decision or getting a sub are both pretty likely outcomes and Miesha doesn't strike me as the type to mentally give up after losing the belt, she came back from that once already plus losing a title shot to put together a win streak and win the title.

Added a 0.1u to win 10.28u bet on an 8 leg parlay, Conor/Edgar/Gastelum/KK/Weidman/Wonderboy/Tate/Khabib, will make a nice sweat if we can get to the Karolina leg intact

I think i'll add some Tate/KK and some sort of Edgar bet, maybe Weidman decision and maybe add more on Wonderboy or potentially Gastelum/Cerrone goes the distance

Don't love any of the spots on the 4 early prelims, odds seem about right but could be talked into a bet on a few of them if there's good reasoning

Be fair to say Johnson has the boxing?

Reckon he can finish him early before he gets dry humped to the death?.. him stopping poirier was pretty solid.

He can sure but he's never faced a wrestler like Khabib (best in the division) and he's been taken down in previous fights, so I think Khabib laying on top of him working for suns/gnp is the most likely option

On the feet Johnson has a clear edge, but Khabib is a competent striker he just isn't amazing or anything. Basically just uses it to go for takedowns

Johnson's 2 ways to win are either catch khabib with a hard shot early that hurts him and finish, or avoid the takedown for two entire rounds and win the rounds standing. I don't think he can do the latter, the only guy Khabib's been unable to take down is Tibau, and Tibau is known for his TDD, is built like a pile of bricks and was juicing at the time.

I would assume Johnson's only two paths to victory are decision standing or wins in round 1 with a big shot, as after a round or two of Khabib laying on him even if he doesn't finish his power will start to go. I'm seeing Johnson DEC at +600 at b365 if you think it's the defend takedowns route, or Johnson wins in r1 at +8xx at a few places if you think it's the KO Route. If he doesn't get the knockout in the first I doubt he's going to get it later in the fight as he's either point fighting to avoid takedowns and using movement/jabs or he's tired from being blanketed for all of the first round with Khabib in top position

Personally I think Khabib blankets him and may get a sub but more likely a 30-27, I quite like the +500 I got on Khabib sub, he has a lot of submissions before he got into the UFC and only one in it, which prob skews the odds, plus Johnson typically loses by getting submitted when he loses, although his last one was a while back

Looks like about 50k came in on Alvarez on Pinny, -150ish to -124 in about a minute. Looks like it'll be bet back up at least partially, i'd have def taken my Conor bet now if I wasn't on it already, expect him to close back at -150ish but who knows

edit: -129 now, it's probably arb money coming in, but will be interesting to see where it winds up whether it goes all the way back to -14x or stops short

Muhammad
Stephens
Romero
Thomson
Mcgregor
Mcgregor by KO
Mcgregor/Alvarez ends in R 2 @+327

My biggest bet is Wonderboy, lets f00king go gl everyone

I'm on all the same, though I think money will come in on Woodley late, so I'm waiting on WB.

Woodley normally steams but he hasn't this time and I think Wonderboy is a nightmare matchup vs him because he'll do what Rory did only worse. If the price improves i'll just double down on Wonderboy on fight day I think

I added a few more, here's what I have so far. At this point i'm definitely going to add JJ/KK wins FOTN and Cerrone/Gastelum wins FOTN if the prices are reasonable. The main will get it if it goes 3+ rounds and isn't an Alvarez LnP but I don't see it doing that often.

2u Conor (Decision no bet) -163
1u Conor -150 (oops, coulda got -124 briefly today, in hindsight I would have made my full bet decision no bet though)
0.5u Conor wins by r1 TKO/KO/DQ +333

Alvarez takes damage early and seems very hittable. Against Conor that's not a good idea. Not sure if Conor takes the measured approach or the guns blazing approach, if it's the latter I see Alvarez hitting the deck first. Alvarez probably has the better gas tank, but if Conor hurts him he'll finish and I can see a reasonable portion of Alvarez's wins coming by decision and a smaller portion of Conor's and even then only if he fights like a point fighter. I feel like in MSG in the main event, Conor will come to put on a show and Alvarez may indulge him and brawl which would be unwise. If Alvarez comes to wrestle, Conor should be good enough to not get submitted for a round and can reset from the second round and go from there. It could definitely go either way, but I see Conor as more like a -150 favourite than the current -135ish or so. I got on too early expecting Conor to steam, but regardless i'm happy enough with my bets.

3u Wonderboy -188
0.5u Wonderboy wins in r1 +500

Probably my favourite bet of the card and i'll almost certainly wind up with more on Wonderboy here. He is an absolute nightmare of a matchup for Woodley, Rory picked him apart at range and Wonderboy can absolutely do the same thing, I expect him to hurt Woodley with kicks and finish him in spectacular fashion. I wouldn't be surprised if he jabs his way to a 50-45 either, but unless Woodley gets a takedown fast, all he has is a puncher's chance, granted he is fast and powerful but Wonderboy is elusive like Machida in his prime and hard to hit, plus he has absurd power for 170. Would have taken the -5.5 line, but there's not a huge price difference to the ML.

0.5u Karolina +330
0.5u Karolina +5.5 points +160

I'm going to add a FOTN prop here for sure, both ladies have heart, excellent striking and clinch work. Joanna is deservedly the favourite, and if I had to pick a median outcome it would be something like 49-46 or 48-47 Joanna, but I think Karolina makes this competitive, Letourneau showed that you can win rounds against Joanna standing and Karolina is better than she is, plus none of the other women Joanna have faced have been able to match her heart and grind in the championship rounds and I think Karolina can. Much respect to both of them, but Karolina is value at the current prices imo. I think she wins 1 in 4 here and that's enough, and it'll go to a competitive decision often enough that i'll have a decent sweat on the +5.5 at plus odds.

2u Khabib -250
1u Khabib SUB +500

My second favourite bet of the card, i've bet on Khabib in every single one of his UFC fights and don't see any reason to stop now. A 30-27 is most likely and Johnson is dangerous, he's only dangerous if Khabib can't take him down and even then he has serviceable striking. Tibau's the only guy who Khabib couldn't take down at will in the UFC so far and Tibau is known for his TDD, is short stocky and huge for the weight class and was roiding at the time. Johnson's been submitted a lot in his defeats and Khabib's submission game is probably underrated as most of his sub wins were pre-UFC so I found some value in the sub line.

1u Weidman -160
1u Weidman DEC +230

At first I loved this line, but Romero is so all over the place it's hard to go big fading him. I feel like this will be a competitive stand up fight most of the time as I doubt either can take the other guy down barring a mistake. Weidman throws more volume though and should pick up a decision more often than not. If either guy gets top position on the ground it could end in a hurry, but I see this looking a lot like round 1 of Weidman vs Rockhold, with Weidman edging it with more standup and forward pressure. Weidman narrowly outstruck Machida and Romero was about on par with Machida until he got on top of him for the finish. Both guys have iffy cardio at times but should last 3 rounds without any real issues. I was originally going to go big on Weidman but I think i'll just leave it here, i've been burned by Romero and his finding new ways to cheat in every fight enough times. I'd love to see Weidman end him quickly and i'm happy to break even if he does.

2u Gastelum +150
1u Gastelum/Cerrone goes the distance -135

I think the fight is a flip, Gastelum is more of a grinder and Cerrone is flashier. Gastelum is hard to finish and should be the bigger man and while Cerrone has shown a weakness to strikes at times, I think it goes the distance slightly more often than not. I quite like the Gastelum decision line here too, but decided to settle on Gastelum straight up as it's a great price for a fight I think is 50/50 and a fight goes the distance bet as I think it goes the distance 60-65% of the time.

1.2u Tate -164

I didn't mind the Pennington +200ish opener, she's improving with every fight and is very very strong and solid but this is just the sort of fight that Tate should win. I think Tate is something like -180 here and could win by either a competitive but clear decision or submission quite easily. Tate has the slightly better wrestling, and the striking should be fairly close, Pennington fights to her opponent's level in general and Tate is just more experienced and should be slightly better everywhere except power. At the end of the day I could see either winning a decision, but Tate slightly more often due to the grinding/wrestling edge and Pennington while powerful isn't really fast enough to catch Tate with a one punch KO type shot that often and shouldn't submit her either as Tate has better grappling.

1.5u Edgar DEC -125

Pretty simple here, Stephens is big, strong, tough and hard to finish. Edgar has the wrestling edge but even if he can't take Stephens down, which is quite possible, he has the movement and footwork to outstrike him with volume standing, similar to what he did to Gray Maynard excluding first rounds in the last two fights or what happened to Stephens against Holloway. Yes, Holloway is a rangier fighter but Edgar moves quickly enough to compensate for that. In a 5 rounder I could see Edgar finishing more often but in 3 I basically see it going Edgar decision pretty much always unless Stephens gets taken down more easily than I expect and gives up a sub or Stephens lands a one punch KO on Edgar in the first round, and it would have to be a one punch KO because Edgar has the best recovery out of basically anyone. Edgar could KO Stephens, but it's a long shot and won't happen often. Even if he gets clipped and loses the first round I could see a 29-28 more often than not, and may add on to Frankie after round 1 if he loses the first. Frankie 30-27 all day.

0.1u Edgar/Tate/Weidman/Khabib/Gastelum/KK/Wonderboy/Conor parlay +10284

All of my picks, big sweat if we get to the Karolina leg and I don't think that's too unlikely.

Because it's such a huge card i'll probably fire the first 4 prelims but the odds seem about right, i've never seen Chookagain fight and would need to watch more tape on Belal Muhammad and Vincente Luque. Miller/Alves and Natal/Boetsch lines seem about right. I'd probably lean Alves maybe with a Miller sub hedge and Natal but don't like anything enough to play it yet. Other than that just going to hit FOTN props and i'm done I think. If anyone can talk me into a prelim bet on the first four fights i'd appreciate it. Got something like 27-28u in play on the card so it's going to be one of my biggest ever. I often have 20u in play across a card but it's rare to get to 30+