Disappointing that two out of five bettable fights got cancelled due to weight cutting issues and I'm stuck with a terrible price on McGeary since I bet his moneyline so early. I could be wrong about the main event and Davis could grind out the champ or sub him, but I'll hope for the best.

Bellator 163 Risk $11107.88

Liam McGeary (+185) vs Phil Davis $200.00 for $370.00
Liam McGeary wins in round 1 (+950) $10.00 for $95.00
Liam McGeary wins by submission (+555) $20.00 for $111.00
Liam McGeary wins by 5 round decision (+700) $40.00 for $280.00

Saad Awad (-120) vs Brennan Ward $240.00 for $200.00
Saad Awad wins by 3 round decision (+499) $20.04 for $100.00
Saad Awad/Brennan Ward Over 1½ (+110) $100.00 for $110.00

Sergei Kharitonov (-275) vs Javy Ayala $275.00 for $100.00
Sergei Kharitonov (-275) vs Javy Ayala $113.87 for $41.41
Sergei Kharitonov wins by 3 round decision (+509) $20.00 for $101.80
Sergei Kharitonov/Javy Ayala Over 1½ (+145) $68.97 for $100.00

UGH!! Kharitonov gets floored & loses by 1st round KO after SIXTEEN seconds.

Off-topic: Did not know that Holly Holm, Tito Ortiz, Miesha Tate and Chris Weidman are apparently supporting Donald Trump. Chael Sonnen? Not a surprise.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...rsements,_2016

lol super rednecks

What's another 2u if I'm in this deep?

Added: Liam McGeary (+275) vs Phil Davis $200.00 for $550.00

Was going to fire Davis but missed the line movement so ended up with no plays for Bellator

Absurd Oliveira misses by 9 lbs, got my bets on before I saw it, put small bets on Oliveira SUB, Held SUB, Ferguson wins in r1 and Alvey wins by r1 KO/TKO at +300, +280, +700 and +300 respectively. That should do me for the card, hopefully I hit at least one to break even or end up in the black depending which one hits.

Got one bet tonight on Diego Sanchez at +225. Diego is on the decline but in Mexico and at altitude I like his chances against Held who although is experienced is making his debut in the UFC.

So yeah I like Diego as a decent underdog here.

El Fuerte by Dec @2.0
El Cucuy @2.15

Got killed in Bellator last night, but looking forward to a big UFC card tonight and the return of live betting.

UFN 98 Risk $3908.23

Tony Ferguson (+130) vs Rafael dos Anjos $200.00 for $260.00
Tony Ferguson wins by submission (+350) $35.00 for $122.50
Tony Ferguson/Rafael dos Anjos does not go distance (-170) $170.00 for $100.00

Diego Sanchez (+235) vs Marcin Held $200.00 for $470.00
Diego Sanchez +3½ points (+110) $100.00 for $110.00
Diego Sanchez wins by TKO/KO (+1125) $10.00 for $112.50
Diego Sanchez wins in round 3 (+2550) $10.00 for $255.00
Diego Sanchez wins by 3 round decision (+345) $35.00 for $120.75
Diego Sanchez/Marcin Held draw (+6000) $10.00 for $600.00

Ricardo Lamas (-108) vs Charles Oliveira $216.00 for $200.00
Ricardo Lamas (+100) vs Charles Oliveira $400.00 for $400.00
Charles Oliveira (-135) vs Ricardo Lamas $270.00 for $200.00
Charles Oliveira wins in round 1 (+400) $50.00 for $200.00
Ricardo Lamas wins inside distance (+297) $35.00 for $103.95
Ricardo Lamas wins in round 3 (+1300) $10.00 for $130.00
Ricardo Lamas wins by 3 round decision (+215) $50.00 for $107.50

Claudio Puelles (+110) vs Martin Bravo $200.00 for $220.00
Claudio Puelles wins by 3 round decision (+190) $50.00 for $95.00

Rashid Magomedov (+125) vs Beneil Dariush $160.00 for $200.00
Rashid Magomedov wins by decision (+200) $50.00 for $100.00

Alexa Grasso wins by TKO/KO (+400) vs Heather Jo Clark $25.00 for $100.00
Alexa Grasso wins in round 3 (+950) $10.00 for $95.00

Erik Perez (-200) vs Felipe Arantes $400.00 for $200.00
Erik Perez -3½ points (+140) $71.43 for $100.00
Erik Perez wins in round 3 (+1350) $10.00 for $135.00

Marco Beltran (-115) vs Joe Soto $230.00 for $200.00
Marco Beltran wins by submission (+1200) $15.00 for $180.00
Marco Beltran wins by 3 round decision (+276) $50.00 for $138.00

Erick Montano (+175) vs Max Griffin $100.00 for $175.00
Erick Montano wins by submission (+575) $20.00 for $115.00
Erick Montano wins by 3 round decision (+330) $50.00 for $165.00

Henry Briones (+170) vs Douglas Andrade $100.00 for $170.00

Sam Alvey wins in round 2 (+425) vs Alex Nicholson $25.00 for $106.25
Sam Alvey wins inside distance (-122) $48.80 for $40.00

Marco Polo Reyes (-160) vs Jason Novelli $160.00 for $100.00
Marco Polo Reyes wins by 3 round decision (+400) $25.00 for $100.00

Enrique Barzola wins by 3 round decision (-105) vs Chris Avila $42.00 for $40.00

Claudio Puelles/Martin Bravo FOTN award winner (+700) $10.00 for $70.00

Parlay:
Enrique Barzola (-531) vs Chris Avila + Alexa Grasso (-575) vs Heather Jo Clark $255.00 for $100.72

Also, the lines got pulled already, but I made a bet on the Glory kickboxing card for which the SuperFight Series prelims already started on Fight Pass. With the Russian coming back from an injury layoff to unify the LHW title, I'm taking a chance on the interim champion Mwekassa as an underdog.

Glory 35 Risk $100.00

Zack Mwekassa (+150) vs Artem Vakhitov $100.00 for $150.00

As always thanks for your insight. Post usada brazilians have been dropping off like flies so I agree with your thesis of being hesitant.

maybe this go the distance? I expect both fighters to come prepared. I dont expect the same tony that came out weak against lando vannata, but even if there are flashes of that tony, than clearly it wont go the distance. he will get caught. This is going to be a great fight, but going with my opinion that RDA is the best light weight in the division, and Ferguson is the future of the division and will be future champion, just not his time yet.


odds (5 hours before fight):
RDA
risk 1 to win .71

Ferguson
risk 1 to win 1.1


Wonder if some late money ferguson will come in.

Quiet in here tonight, was impressed by De Andrande.

Avila is toilet.

I'm watching. Couple of quick stoppages in a row there. Bigger money fights coming up for me now.

Wow home boys getting crushed so far.

perez will bring them a win

Just tuned in for the replay of the Alvey fight. Just got the 3 props on Ferguson wins in r1, Held sub and Oliveira sub. Was tempted to fire Clark but all the steam is still on Grasso so whatever I guess will probably pass.

Got a small Vargas sweat faing Pacquiao since he's getting old at +500 since I happened to see an off market line on an Aussie book.

I guess it's kinda a nothing card when 205 is next weekend.

Looking forward to the last three fights, but didn't care enough about the prelims to wake up early, Alvey is the only fighter I really care about on the prelims and happened to catch his fight anyway

Guess I may as well give myself a sweat on every fight

1.5u Ferguson +130
0.5u Dariush -105
0.5u Bravo -106
0.33u Clark +480

That should do it

No real logic other than 'Ferguson's a beast and RDA might be shot and Dariush steamed in, I heard more good things about Bravo despite never seeing either fight, and lol +480 is too steep for to not take against an unproven WMMA prospect'. Not sure if RDA leaving Kings will be a net plus or minus i'd assume minus

In addition to the unit or so I have on each of Ferguson r1, Held sub and Oliveria SUB

I really should bet on Lamas with all the factors I just can't help but feel like Oliveira somehow submits him anyway

1u El Cucuy (+125)

I believe his wrestling is good enough to keep it on the feet where he is much more unorthodox and unpredictable than Dos Anjos.

Good luck all !!!

Amazing that Bookmaker has brought live betting back for this main card after not having it for a long time.

Close r1, Dariush did more damage but Magomedov got the takedown and controlled the first minute or so

I think Dariush won it especially with that big body kick but judges probably split it

Didn't realise bm/cris brought live betting back for this card, hopefully they have it for all numbered cards again now

got 1.44u Grasso by Dec @1.72
and fire 1u Dariush by Dec @3.38
Gonna add some more on El Cucuy ITD

If Dariush is -250 or better between rounds i'll get on. Looks like Magomedov can't handle the pressure well, he needs to get it to the ground to have a chance

Dariush Dec bet looking good there dekid

edit: interesting, they just said Magomedov has landed more strikes

Added a half unit @ -260 after r2, he should be up 2 rounds on 2 cards most of the time, all 3 Sherdog guys have it 20-18 although I think it'll be a split decision a lot if Magomedov wins r3

I am on the Dariush train with you. lets ship this.


Really hope he gets it.

Close fight, I think Dariush wins a 29-28 on average could be anything from 30-27 to a split decision. Closeish r1/3, Dariush clearly won r2. I think we're -300 to -350 to get the decision