For whatever it's worth, apparently Hendo didn't do anything physical at the open workouts - just answered fan questions and then left.

That's... not normal is it? For someone who's meant to be in shape to fight in a few days time to not even get a sweat up or throw a few light punches at some mitts?!?

DC vs Rumble just announced for 206 in Toronto, been looking forward to seeing this fight for a while now!

On a happier note, off to watch 204 live at the weekend. Couldn't pass up getting tickets for a numbered card in my home country. Was lucky to get them as it sold out in ~5 minutes.



Will be sitting roughly where the dot is so hopefully it'll be a pretty good view! Tickets were ~£250/~$350 so expecting good things. My first live event so hoping it'll be a good one.

Bets wise i'm liking the following so far:

OSP - Hoping the timezone difference etc won't make it a hard weight cut for him, but if it go's well and he looks ok at weigh ins this is prob my fav bet of the card

Bisping (obv) - Sure ill unload somewhat big here, kinda of leaning towards him finishing in the later rounds, maybe 3 or 4 once hendo ultimately tires and bisping can just go in for the kill. Can easily see it going the distance too, mike has improved so much since hes been with Parillo that he might just want to outbox hendo and be cautious not to get caught. I think there will be alot of pressure on him in his hometown, being fav and wanting revenge which could lead to it being a tentative start/fight.

Kinda liking struve and pickett lines but undecided yet.

I'll make sure i take some decent photos and post them up when i get back home.

P.S rip Samman, really liked him on tuf!

I sometimes wonder whether "home octagon" and time zone is actually any kind of advantage for the local fighters on cards like this, given what time they actually happen.

Am I right that the main card is happening about 6:00am local time, so that it'll be prime time in the States? If so, it's probably timed better for the body clocks of the fighters flying in than it is for the local guys.

Worth noting too that while Bisping is the local, he was still training in the US for this fight and is flying in for it same as Hendo and the other American fighters.

Bisping SU is my only bet for this card so far (I kinda feel like he wins this 80% or more of the time given how one dimensional and shot Hendo is), probably want to watch a bit more film but I like OSP a lot too.

Yeh fight pass prelims start 1130pm, 1am for the prelims and 3am start for the main card. Bisping estimated to start at 5am. All local times obv. Basically the exact same time schedule as if it were a US ppv.

From what it looks like on the vlogs everyone is just staying on their US body clocks so it shouldn't be too much of an issue. Be interesting to see how the crowd is at 5am, knowing the general UK crowd, prob drunk as f**k and super rowdy!

Nice man, should be a good event, atmosphere should be pretty wicked that late at night with Bisping fighting at ''home'', although TBH on paper its a really weak PPV IMO.

I don't really buy into the whole ''home advantage'' thing. It depends on many variables, you could also argue it's a disadvantage because of added pressure and distractions. Just depends on the fighters, how they deal with pressure, flying over, supporting/hostile crowds etc. Also Bisping lives in the US anyway.

Samman was found unconscious with his friend whi also died, he went into a coma and passed a couple days later no cause announced last I saw.

I found a bisping wins in r3 +900 line which is tempting. I think it'll be in r3-4 a lot or DEC he claimed he's going to win via r3 ko when asked...live events are great 204 should be fun in the UK.

Bisping specifically suggested to bettors that they bet him in round 3 on UFC Tonight this evening. Best I could get at 5D was +700 where I put $50 on it. I'm on his ML at -215 and Bisping -5½ points at -170. Also flyers on Bisping wins in in round 4 & 5. I hate to bet against Hendo just because I think it would be awesome if he won a UFC belt to add to his collection in his last fight. But the bookies are forcing me to bet Bisping at these lines!

Throwing 0.75u on Bisping r3 hoping he calls his shot.

+900 on bet365

Also adding 0.25u on r4 at +1600 and 0.25u on r2 at +700, I also have 1u on him straight up, and going to add 2 more on the -5.5 pts at -170 on 5d

Tempting to add more on OSP as well at -150 but i'll wait for weigh ins before adding on for my existing bets

Also adding 0.5u each on Perry +120 and Bektic fight u2.5 rounds +125

These local start times for 204 are a joke right? They're actually sticking to the regular US time starts?!?!

Anyway, just Bisping and OSP for me as I will actually be flying back to the auK while this card is on so won't be watching or betting in play.

Utterly absurd but yeah, rest of the world always have absurd start times. The last Australia card I went to started at 8:45am (which isn't as bad as the main happening at 5am given the main for that card started in the early afternoon) but is still bad obviously.

Numbered cards, US PPV buys are all they are about I guess so if we want numbered cards overseas we have to deal with ******ed start times

Yeah i kinda agree the start times are a bit of a joke, but proper fans are always going to be willing to attend. Fact proven that it was sold out in 6 minutes.

Was looking around and can get bisping to win in r4 or 5 or by decision @ +240. Leaning towards taking this and maybe adding a small amount on r3 and then just sweating getting out of the first couple of rounds. Goes with my logic that it'll be a tentative start from both.

What are people leaning towards for the struve fight?

I think it'll be a pretty clear case of Struve ITD or Omielaczuk decision if he can get takedowns or wall and stall like Rosholt - if Struve still has mindset issues and the Bigfoot chin issue led to Struve looking like a killer again last fight and appearing to be fighting aggressively like he used to then Omielaczuk should win, but if Struve has actually resolved his mindset issues and is fighting aggressively again like he did pre-heart condition and layoff then Struve will wreck him

I may play Struve decision no bet when the line comes out, Omiel dec +455 seems solid as a hedge and I quite like Struve ITD at +125 as well but going to wait and see if Struve dec no bet is -200 or better I think and just hit that if it is

On the WSOF card if I actually watch it I may fire some bets, Branch seems like value at -210ish vs Magalhaes, all he needs to do is fade a sub from the bottom, he should dominate the standup and if it goes to the ground he should have top position and choose to stand if he doesn't feel comfortable there. I personally think Vinny is very overrated and obviously he's one dimensional but he lacks the ability to get it there the way Maia does against good opponents so imo he will only beat non-UFC caliber fighters

I might be tempted by Branch by TKO if the line is good too.

Shawn Jordan line looks good, and TKO might be good there as well his opponent doesn't seem to be UFC caliber and Jordan is, he left because of a contract dispute and has knocked Derrick Lewis out among other legit wins, Barry, Johnson, etc. and while I used to think he was overrated, now i'm convinced he's very underrated.

Gaethje should win too. I might even parlay the three of them i'd be very shocked if they don't all win. Actually i'll just do that, then hit the two TKO props I like if they look good

WSOF parlay - Jordan/Gaethje/Branch parlay, 0.45u to win 0.8u - seems like value

We get PPVs free on BT Sport so scheduling for the North American market makes perfect sense.

Just got tix to the fight night in sac n hoping we get a solid lineup. Saw Gall/Northcutt which should be fun. Been to a bunch of Indian reservation mma events but never UFC so I'm pretty exited. Would be awesome if a bunch of local guys get on card like Uriah, Nick or Nate Diaz, PVZ or a Garbrandt title shot

Yeah I think we got to the Melbourne card at about midday and it was halfway through the prelims? Main card happened mid-afternoon local time on a Sunday, so really no different to going to an afternoon football game.

Some of the time zone changes are brutal though: IIRC Gustafsson had to fight Rumble at 3.00am local time or something like that?

Meh. Most of the fights I've witnessed took place after the bars were closed.

i thought bisping and mousasi would both be bigger favorites, so im betting against them both

Not sure I follow that logic? Surely you'd bet them harder the bigger favourite they are? To get the better price on the outsider?
If they are not as big a favourite as you expected then there isn't value in the favourite?

I think Hendo was winning the last time they fought as well, even before the big H-bomb he landed as Bisping circled to the wrong side. With that said, Hendo looks stiff as ***.

i am part of "the public" and i think its an obvious bet for reasons you stated. so im betting the opposite

WSOF 33 Risk $1069.50

David Branch (-205) vs Vinny Magalhaes $205.00 for $100.00
Dave Branch (-205) vs Vinny Magalhaes $100.00 for $48.78
David Branch wins inside distance (-130) $52.00 for $40.00
David Branch/Vinny Magalhaes Under 2½ (-120) $60.00 for $50.00

Jason High (-190) vs Joao Zeferino $190.00 for $100.00
Jason High/Joao Zeferino Under 2½ (+150) $50.00 for $75.00

Brian Foster (+120) vs Luiz Firmino $100.00 for $120.00
Brian Foster/Luiz Firmino Over 1½ (-135) $67.50 for $50.00
Luiz Firmino wins by 3 round decision (+274) $40.00 for $109.60

John Howard (+350) vs Abubakar Nurmagomedov $30.00 for $105.00
John Howard/Abubakar Nurmagomedov Over 2½ (-180) $135.00 for $75.00

Shawn Jordan/Ashley Gooch Over 1½ (+131) $40.00 for $52.40

Huh, sorry but that does not make any sense to me, you thinking the bookies are baiting you to bet the favorite by giving you better odds than you thought?

I just see it as value in betting the favorites, although I think Moose is already quite a big favorite, but then again Vitor looked pretty bad at weigh ins.

For this card I'm on all the overs on the main card.

Tailed some bets just for fun, so Ill stream it while grinding GL

Parlay adjusted to just better than evens so I pick up a shade under a half unit for the WSOF card.

Let's hope tomorrow is a good one going to watch weigh ins now and decide if i'm making any more bets

Was going to take Struve ITD +130 but found some insane value on the KO round lines on bet365 and a nice hedge with the SUB line on 5d so went with that instead

0.88u Struve SUB +470
1.4u Struve wins by r1 TKO/KO/DQ +900
0.7u Struve wins by r2 TKO/KO/DQ +1600
0.35u Struve wins by r3 TKO/KO/DQ +4000

I will probably add some Struve straight up as well. He's huge, and while Omielaczuk could wall and stall him or land a punchers chance shot, Struve IF he's back to being at his best should be a big favourite. Those TKO prices are insane, the sub price is probably about right, maybe marginal value. Struve is +2xx to win by TKO/KO/DQ on 5d by comparison, so had to make that the main play spaced between the rounds

GL anyone who wants to tail the TKO props, if Struve wins half the time by sub and half by TKO when he finishes then it has to be value (6 of his last 7 finishes are KO/TKO though, so it should be more likely despite him having 16 subs and 8 tkos in career most of the tkos are UFC and subs pre ufc)

Will wait and see on Struve straight up. I really do think the TKO lines are multiple unit spots, but don't want my card to be made or broken on Struve finishing. If he wins by TKO or DQ i'm picking up 10+ units for the fight, and if he wins by sub it's a small win of 1.5-2u, and if he doesn't finish we only lose 3u and change so I think i'm ok with it

May end up adding more on Bisping too before the fight, he did look more rattled at the weigh in talking trash, but he really wants this one and should be smart enough to fight smart, circle away from the H-Bomb and pick Hendo apart at range until he's exhausted, Hendo looked really old at the weigh in, because he's really old. Bisping's getting up there too but he's still clearly in his prime and Hendo isn't. The only issue is if Bisping fights emotionally and by picking a r3 TKO instead of a r1 TKO it should show he at least plans to be disciplined and go for the finish when Hendo is tired

As it stands in addition to the Struve finishes props, I have Bisping, Bisping wins in r2-4 props (heaviest on r3), OSP, Vitor/Mousasi u1.5, Pickett/Alcantara o2.5 and then small on Perry and Bektic fight u2.5

Bring your mental A game please Struve and Bisping. I still think Struve could fight for the title at some point in his career if he can learn to jab and get his **** together permanently mentally. Hopefully the Bigfoot finish was just what he needed to fight aggressively again.