It's -230 on Unibet as well right now.

Yeah that's exactly the kind of thing I'm talking about - at odds as short as that you're getting legitimately worried about random injuries killing your bet for you along with the other fighter's puncher's chance.

And even fighters that normally wouldn't have the power to knock people out can do it under the right circumstances. Bisping had a reputation as the most pillow-fisted of the powerless volume punchers, but he caught Rockhold coming in and that was all she wrote...

Obviously it doesn't happen often but at those odds it doesn't need to happen often to make it a -EV bet.

Lot of Chagas steam he's a moderate fav now instead of a dog. I'm probably just going to stay away, if Silva wins in r1 is fantastic i'll consider it despite USADA ruining him - I was considering Chagas as a dog, but not keen to fade Silva on a relatively untested prospect either since he's still talented offensively even if he has the defense and fight IQ of a turnip

Would Chagas be a decent pick in DFS for a GPP? I'm trying to see if I can fit Cyborg into a lineup but she comes with a 13000 price tag on DK, so I need to pick some underdogs

UFC 205 NY looking awesome so far!

Chagas isn't an underdog anymore so if he's still a dog in wherever you're doing a lineup I would assume so

I expect the fight will either be Silva finishes him in r1 or Chagas wins.

Have heard good things about Lansberg's standup but haven't watched any tape. I wonder if there's any value in her to see round two at +185... if I get time i'll try and find some of her fights before the card.

Slightly less confident in Yahya after learning Tanaka has been training with TAM, although post-Bang TAM isn't what it was. With the exceptions of Felder and Barao better prices are available now on my other bets than when I fired. Hopefully i'm right that Yahya can get Tanaka down and submit him or win two rounds. Probably should have taken Chagas when he was a dog too but oh well.

Just a heads up that I owe Swoop on a bet from a couple months ago that happened right before i fell off a financial cliff and for the immediate future do not entertain requests for action from me on anything. This has been a rough time for me and I hope to rectify this situation in the near future.

in other news
i cant wait for dan kelly vs chris camozzi in melbourne as it is going to be a sneaky fight of the night choice

i'd argue that lopez was a tougher matchup than TAM tanaka should be

Why? Lopez is a worse grappler and striker. He also had never faced anything close to UFC-level comp.

Appreciate you saying this so I don't have to. The bet is for a small amount (I believe about $70 without checking) and i'm fine with partial payments as you can afford it but just wanted to make sure that no one else is booking bets with you while you can't afford to pay them. Nobody should book action until he's settled with me, and i'll confirm in the thread when he does.

I find it pretty crazy Yahya hasn't faced any high level competition in the last few years despite his solid record. I have no idea what to make of this fight anymore, I did like Yahya initially and still think he's live for both a sub and a decision. He won't beat people he can't take down, but if he can get Tanaka down at any point he should at the very least win the round if not get a submission.

Would like some invicta bets to tail if anyone has anything good or fun to bet tonight

Added 2u on Nelson/Silva doesn't start r2 -192 (Nelson wins in r1 is -185 which is effectively what this bet is, but for the 7 points extra juice i'll take a random chance Bigfoot finishes early too)

Annoyed I took Bigfoot dec too early, added 0.33u on Bigfoot by decision +1200 on bet365, so I have something like 0.66u on it now at +1025 average, so i'll win 1.33u if either guy finishes in r1 (most likely Nelson), win about 3 units if it's Bigfoot dec, or lose 4 and a bit units on any other result.

I think the biggest sweat is if Bigfoot gets on top in r1 but fails to finish and Nelson comes out fresh and not gassed in r2. Other than that I don't see how I lose this, Nelson is going to have a rough time winning a decision against Bigfoot in the first place and if he's landing at all early he's almost certainly going to knock him out and if he's not landing at all in r1 there's a good chance the fight will either end in the other direction, or Bigfoot's up a round and Nelson is very tired.

If you told me two years ago i'd be able to bet on Erick Silva against a guy i've never heard of as a dog and that i'm not going to do it I wouldn't have believed it.

Bet365 just gave me a $20 bonus for no reason (I deposited 200 a few weeks ago and have like 1200 there now, I thought they hated winning accounts?) so I threw it on Lansberg since gotta find a decent dog spot for the bonus and I have enough on Bigfoot dec already there and I don't think the Erick Silva wins in r1 price is good enough. Plus I don't like Cyborg and want an anti-sweat and who knows maybe this time the weight cut will matter and she won't snap win in r1 like usual

Unlikely and mega fishy and I wouldn't do it with my own money but whatever it's a free bonus bet

0.2u Lansberg +800

My favourite play is Aldana+ Tiffany Van Soest.

If you want to mix it up a bit I DO think all the faves pull through. Roxanne is an ok dog to play for the main event too.

JimGunn has talked about Kalyn Schwartz as a live dog v. Tiff Timebomb but I am not convinced.

EDIT: you can also parlay Medeiros with any of the other faves as she def wins.

Sites prob offer bonuses to keep you from cashing out a bit longer would be my guess. Even tho $20 you'll clear just tonight prob

Thx. I know next to nothing about the card tonight but wanna have some sweats when I watch.

i like the dogs in the title fights

what is the line for ending in rd2?

I like all the favorites for Invicta FC tonight. Would need higher than +240 to take a stab on Schwartz over Van Soest even with her size advantage. Tiffany is completely unproven as an MMA fighter but in Schwartz's fight footage I saw she looked pretty rudimentary against low level competition. Schwartz opened at +325 on some Euro books, I would have taken a half unit stab there.

Invicta FC 19 Risk $925.50

Irene Aldana (-270) vs Faith Van Duin $270.00 for $100.00
Kaline Medeiros (-265) vs Manjit Kolekar $397.50 for $150.00

Parlays:
Ayaka Hamasaki (-185) vs Jinh Yu Frey + Jennifer Maia (-245) vs Roxanne Modafferi $100.00 for $116.93
Kaline Medeiros (-400) vs Manjit Kolekar + Irene Aldana (-325) vs Faith Van Duin $158.00 for $100.27

2.6u Nelson By KO @ 1.49
0.25u Silva by Dec @ 13.0
0.5u Trinaldo Felder O 2.5R @ 1.6
0.5u Formiga @ 1.57

I want Trinaldo Felder FOTN if someone can book for me in 5d i can ship them money anywhere, it was @6.5 now is @5.0 i think still worth to be .5u or something

Goodluck everyone

I'm on Trinaldo/Felder FOTN at +550.

pretty awesome invicta fight...Kai Holliday....USA USA

I feel foolish for having neglected to bet against the inexperienced Tiffany Van Soest. Schwartz/Holliday overwhelmed her and choked her out quickly.

that was a gusher.....seen that with elbows but not that many times with a fist.

Added a little more on the champion:

Jennifer Maia (-195) vs Roxanne Modafferi $97.50 for $50.00