Dolloway is out for some reason- maybe sick?-so Barroso fight is off. Werdum looked soft at the weigh-ins. CM Punk actually looked good on the scale.

Ugh thats annoying I just did some research and decided to fire the o3.5 TKO line @ -110 and Barroso by TKO +500 and both will now be cancelled. I'll probably jump back on the over 3.5 TKO line at +160 or whatever it'll be with one less fight, there are a few I think could end in a surprise KO. I may split it between o2.5/o3.5/o4.5 even with a 10 fight card depending what the prices are when they're revised. Also took 0.15u on Calderwood TKO +850.

Pretty crazy Cowboy wants to fight at LHW, granted Barroso isn't elite but Cerrone would weigh in at like 186-188 or something probably to make weight. I doubt Dana will let him as he'll be wanted on UFC 205 since he's a draw but it would be interesting

It's a pretty safe fight for Cerrone purely in a physical sense. Barraso is not at all dangerous. I would love to see the line for that one.

Man the odds on Faber now are really tempting although I originally wanted to fade him.
Only got Jessica Eye so far at 1.8, hoping some money comes in on Browne and I can get Werdum at a better price.

There doesn't seem to be an official cancellation yet, I looked everywhere and it's just the Cerrone/Dana exchange on twitter about Cowboy fighting CB's opponent.

Fired 1.3u on Barroso straight up at +169 as there's a chance he'll fight sick or injured and there has to be something to it if Cowboy's heard there might be an opening

I rewatched the first Werdum/Browne fight last night and it leaves me thinking this fight is gonna be a lot like that one. Only way it could really be much different is that Werdums chin might not withstand the near TKO Browne had to start the fight. Although Werdum played it safe that fight once it was clear to him he was gonna win as long as he avoided a wild punch from Travis. Werdums chin coming off a recent and devastating KO loss, plus this being a must win for Travis you never know tho.

I really can't decide on the main event. All week my gut has been saying Overeem. There is a lot of pressure fighting in your hometown(ask Werdum) but Stipe does seem to be handling it well. Overeem has never gone the distance tho so I'd imagine stipe would like to grind him a bit idk. more times than not when I've changed my mind last min I've regretted it so I'll prob just bet Reem or stay away completely

The steam against Faber is certainly concerning. These types of steam generally aren't wrong in my experience or are right more often they are wrong i should say.

Team_Josh122 paid the Punk makes weight bet. Just posting in thread to verify.

5d should have the new lines up soon, probably going to hit an over for KOs for the card still although that was one of the fights I quite liked to end by KO so depends what the new line is. Also my Barosso bets are cancelled now I guess.

http://www.foxsports.com/ufc/story/c...medium=twitter

What an absurd accident

I saw Uriah post pic yesterday, what crazy thing to happen. Luckily they didn't drop more floors. Then I saw Dana post Cerrone offering to fight in CB's place and lawler pulled out of the 205 fight. What a weird string of events.

Goin all dogs this card, couldn't see anything I really like.
Overeem, Browne, Punk, Faber


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I am a bit concerned that Werdum looks soft but he's never ripped anyway and Browne forgot how to strike so I hope we're ok there. Browne always has a great physique and he's athletic, he just lacks striking defense and technique and if he can't handily outstrike Werdum what exactly is he going to do? It has to be puncher's chance really that's all he has so i'd rather be on Werdum even at -200.

I'm a bit less confident in Stipe than I was pre-weigh ins, Reem seems supremely confident in his interviews although Reem is always confident and has been KO'd a lot and I trust Stipe's chin more even though I think Reem is the better striker chin matters at HW. Arlovski for example would be a monster if he had prime Roy Nelson's chin and could just stand in the pocket and exchange bombs with people. At the end of the day I can't bet on Overeem's chin against a guy who did to Hunt and Werdum what he did to them. Stipe has good striking and power, that should be enough.

I personally think Eye and Calderwood are ridiculous value at the current prices and I think Faber has to be too unless Rivera is a future champ and i've just missed it. Punk's debut should be a fun spectacle too... time to get some sleep and let's run good in the morning.

My bets for 203

Spencer 3 units @ 2.10
Tavares 3 units @ 1.55
Eye 4 units @ 1.76

Tavares/Magalhaes TO GO THE DISTANCE 3 units @ 2.10
Faber/Rivera TO GO THE DISTANCE 4 units @ 1.60

Calderwood 5 units @ 2.20
Weredum 5 units @ 1.50
Miocic 5.5 units @ 1.901

32.5 units outlayed on this card.

I never had any intention of betting the result on the Faber and Punk matches however, the odds on their opposition is getting to a silly price.
Now im tempted to bet on them purely from a value perspective for a unit or 2. We gonna see!

I've been waiting for reem since the announcement of this fight. Let's go Reem! 4 units.

My bets tonight:

6u on Werdum (-200) against Brown. Insane value imo. Brown is in a must win/stressful situation and training with those clowns doesn't help. Werdum can adjust if the 1st round doesn't go his way , Brown's corner is just useless.

1.15u on Miocic (-115) against The Reem. This line should be closer to -140. I think Stipe KOs him early in the second.

i got a big bet on werdum too at -200 and looks like its at -245 already so gl us

This needs to happen 1time....


Parlay +2600 4 Picks

Fabricio Werdum
-225
Stipe Miocic
-120
Urijah Faber
+140
CM Punk
+325


Risk
$50.00
Win
$1299.90

UFC 203 Risk $2020.00

Alistair Overeem/Stipe Miocic won’t start round 3 (-140) $140.00 for $100.00
Travis Browne (+205) vs Fabricio Werdum $100.00 for $205.00
Travis Browne wins by TKO/KO (+313) $35.00 for $109.55
CM Punk (+380) vs Mickey Gall $100.00 for $380.00
CM Punk wins in round 2 (+1300) $25.00 for $325.00
CM Punk wins in round 3 (+1900) $25.00 for $475.00
CM Punk wins by submission (+1205) $50.00 for $602.50
Mickey Gall wins by submission (+145) $50.00 for $72.50
Jimmie Rivera (-120) vs Urijah Faber $120.00 for $100.00
Jessica Andrade (-140) vs Joanne Calderwood $140.00 for $100.00
Jessica Andrade (-115) vs Joanne Calderwood $115.00 for $100.00

Bethe Correia (+105) vs Jessica Eye $200.00 for $210.00
Nik Lentz wins inside distance (+165) vs Michael McBride $50.00 for $82.50
Nik Lentz wins in round 3 (+925) $10.00 for $92.50
Caio Magalhaes scorecards = no action (+140) vs Brad Tavares $50.00 for $70.00
Jason Gonzalez (+145) vs Drew Dober $50.00 for $72.50
Drew Dober wins in round 3 (+1300) $10.00 for $130.00

Yancy Madeiros scorecards = no action (-165) vs Sean Spencer $165.00 for $100.00
Sean Spencer wins by 3 round decision (+205) $50.00 for $102.50

Travis Browne wins Fastest KO (+900) $10.00 for $90.00
Jessica Andrade wins Fastest KO (+1200) $10.00 for $120.00
Yancy Madeiros wins Fastest SUB (+2000) $10.00 for $200.00

Jimmie Rivera/Urijah Faber FOTN award winner (+400) $15.00 for $60.00
Jessica Andrade/Joanne Calderwood FOTN award winner (+400) $15.00 for $60.00

Round Robins:

Sean Spencer/Yancy Madeiros Over 2½ (-135) + Jason Gonzalez/Drew Dober Over 2½ (-170) + Jimmie Rivera/Urijah Faber Over 2½ (-190) + CM Punk/Mickey Gall Under 1½ (-200) $150.00 for $228.22

Tavares wins by 3 round decision (+168) + Lentz wins in round 3 (+800) + Punk wins by submission (+1000) + Browne wins in round 1 (+400) + Overeem wins by TKO/KO (+120) $100.00 for $6337.92

Madeiros wins in round 3 (+1025) + Dober wins in round 3 (+1300) + Magalhaes wins in round 3 (+1375) + Lentz wins in round 3 (+925) + Dollaway wins in round 3 (+1075) + Werdum wins in round 3 (+1000) $225.00 for $32,960.62

obviously cm punk is a big dog in that parlay but if you replace him with gall in above parlay the return is only going to be 350 as opposed to 1300.

edit: cm punk went from +325 to +300 just now.

Here's what I got tonight.

2u Eye -135
1u Andrade -140
1u Faber +105(took him earlier this week)
4.5u Gall
1.5u Werdum
1u Overeem

.02u parlay on all above

.5u parlay on Gall, Werdum, Overeem

.5u Eye, Faber, Gall

.5u Gall by submission -110

I will usually add .2u sweats on undercard fights I don't have action on yet during walkouts as well for the sweat

Good Luck everyone!

I like Miocic, Browne, Faber, and EYE

Don't have fs1 n streamhunter is the worst. Can never get the adds out of the damn way. Anyone who is better stream or help shoot me a pm plz

http://livetv.sx/en/eventinfo/444214...reliminairies/ wprks fine for me decent quality

Live bet after round 1: Nik Lentz/Michael McBride Under 2½ (+175) $50.00 for $87.50

Jimm whats yr thinking on Punk

n1 jim

That he's been sandbagging in his interviews and open workouts and that he is going to come out and look much better and more prepared than anyone expects. Also, I'm a degenerate who is chasing long odds for a huge upset and big payout.