MMA Thread - Page 1538 - Sports Betting - SportsBetting Strategy and Forum

Exactly what I heard she apparently has great BJJ and we've seen glimpses and good striking she's just way too small for the weight class. She's 20 and seems to have a high ceiling. Sort of feels like Holloway being a 7-1 dog to Poirier at age 19, this chick is legit and she could go a long way once she's in her natural weight class

20-18 AES but it's Macedo's stock that is rising imo

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09-03-2016 , 02:03 PM

#38427

RB87

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2013 Posts: 1,210

Yeah agree too much too soon.
She would be good at 115 though I think a future contender.

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09-03-2016 , 02:04 PM

#38428

Team_Josh122

adept

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 841

Great job of imposing her will on Macedo that fight by Ashely

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09-03-2016 , 02:05 PM

#38429

RB87

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2013 Posts: 1,210

Arbed my Latifi bet at 3.30 with Bader at 1.59.
I think Bader is the value side now.

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09-03-2016 , 02:08 PM

#38430

SwoopAE

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Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 22,259

Boom, binked it all. ITD, TKO and straight up. Won something like 6u for the fight maybe more.

Also happy that Macedo's stock went up as much as it can for a girl who lost by TKO on debut and I hope she is even money to say Amanda Cooper or Angela Magana or someone in her WSW debut

Only fight on the card I don't have a bet on now. Time to relax then see if Gustafsson, Bader and Arlovski can close out a very strong card

I agree re: Bader, adding 1u Bader straight up at -170 to go with my Bader DEC I already have. Latifi may have been the value originally but I think Bader is -200 here and probably -150 to evens range to get the decision

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09-03-2016 , 02:10 PM

#38431

Team_Josh122

adept

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 841

.33u on Dalby just for the sweat.

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09-03-2016 , 02:18 PM

#38432

SwoopAE

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Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 22,259

Sobotta denying the steam. Makes me want to add more on Tae Hyun Bang. Glad I didn't play this one as i'd have been on Dalby

In fact i'm going to do that, I think he's more like a +200 dog than the +295 he's at.

Extra 0.5u Bang at +295

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09-03-2016 , 02:22 PM

#38433

westswindon

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 2,345

Dalby gonna put me deep in the hole...

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09-03-2016 , 02:23 PM

#38434

RB87

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2013 Posts: 1,210

Just took Bang at 3.85 think he is a live dog here.

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09-03-2016 , 02:26 PM

#38435

SwoopAE

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I agree and doubt Hein would be this big a fav outside Germany. Hein will usually win if it goes the distance but if anyone wins by KO it's likely to be Hein and Bang is somewhat live to win 2 rounds too

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09-03-2016 , 02:29 PM

#38436

Team_Josh122

adept

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 841

1u on bang. Thinking about putting a super fish bet of .1u on draw in the Bader fight at +5000

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09-03-2016 , 02:33 PM

#38437

SwoopAE

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Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 22,259

What's the logic on the draw for that fight specifically, 10-8 Latifi, 10-9 Bader, 10-9 Bader or hoping for a Bader point deduction?

Also no idea what book you use but 5d has +8000 for a draw if you can bet there if you do it. Betcris has +10000 too and i'm sure other books have better prices than +5000 too

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09-03-2016 , 02:40 PM

#38438

JimGunn

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 1,898

Seems like all the sportsbooks drastically lowered their draw prop payouts recently. No more +15000 to +20000 for UFC bouts.

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09-03-2016 , 02:42 PM

#38439

Team_Josh122

adept

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 841

I'm on tops mostly. Basically what you stated tho as reasoning. Plus being in Europe could see a fight Bader slightly edges being called draw rarely. Never know with judges I guess

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09-03-2016 , 02:43 PM

#38440

Team_Josh122

adept

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 841

I think they are using 10-8 more frequently so likelihood of draws in 3 rounders more likely

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09-03-2016 , 02:44 PM

#38441

JimGunn

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 1,898

Quote:

Originally Posted by Team_Josh122

I think they are using 10-8 more frequently so likelihood of draws in 3 rounders more likely

No doubt that is the reason they adjusted the lines.

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09-03-2016 , 02:49 PM

#38442

westswindon

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 2,345

2.5 units on wallhead to claw back some of the 3.5 units dropped thus far.

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09-03-2016 , 02:56 PM

#38443

SwoopAE

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 22,259

Wallhead should get the decision here to continue a good card even though it was just a small bet

The UFC should consider having Dan Hardy replace either of the black hole of charisma that is Jon Anik and Kenny Florian on fox cards.

Edit: wow, what a horrible decision. 30-27, wtf? How does Ayari win one card let alone two and a 30-27.... Guess they're not giving decisions to non Germans today. I hope Wallhead is paid his win bonus that was atrocious

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09-03-2016 , 02:57 PM

#38444

westswindon

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Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 2,345

Needed another 30 seconds for Jimmy I think

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09-03-2016 , 02:57 PM

#38445

del1rium

adept

Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 764

added last minute
0.5u Evans-Smith by TKO @ 5.25 Thanks Swoop

0.5u Over 6.5 Fight go to Distance @ 4.2
1u Nick Hein @ 1.33

Last edited by del1rium; 09-03-2016 at 03:03 PM.

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09-03-2016 , 02:58 PM

#38446

westswindon

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Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 2,345

30-27??? **** off

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09-03-2016 , 02:58 PM

#38447

Team_Josh122

adept

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 841

How did one judge score it 30-27?

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09-03-2016 , 02:58 PM

#38448

westswindon

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 2,345

How have I dropped 6 units so far? I thought this card was pretty straight forward.

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09-03-2016 , 02:59 PM

#38449

SwoopAE

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 22,259

Kudos to Dan Hardy remaining professional in the interview when his friend just got robbed

I would assume some of those 6 units are due to robbery

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09-03-2016 , 03:03 PM

#38450

Team_Josh122

adept

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 841

So any truth to the rumors CM Punk is 30 lbs overweight just a week out? I mean he's never had experience with these weight cuts before. Any lines out in this fight yet?

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