Any thoughts on DFS this weekend? No way Gus is worth that price is there, 12.5k?

Can see the logic, my only concern though would be if Conor were to be injured it probably increases the chances they strip him of the title. And if they strip him of the title I expect we'd definitely never see him at featherweight again.

Anyone been watching Evolution of Punk? Pretty worthwhile watch, but clearly Punk is in big trouble come fight night. The skills just clearly aren't there yet, what's your guys outlook on betting this fight?

If he's trying to fight Alvarez, Alvarez gets hurt, and they make a match for an interim belt like they did vs Mendes at 145. I'd expect to see either of those over Turd Ferguson or Barboza at 155.

He looks pretty bad sparring (awkward, slow, bad form), just what you would expect from a 37 year old who doesn't have any combat experience, be it competed in taekwondo, bjj, boxing etc and who on top of that, isn't really athletic (he looks kind of doughy). He gets shut down in the first exchange, when Gall realizes, yeah this guy doesn't pose any problems for me and just runs through him.

Did anyone watch the weigh-ins? Evans-Smith is so much bigger than Macedo, she could probably make 115

Just as a side in the recent memory of UFC*. Is there any examples of, not stupid judging but, blatant fight fixing?

* UFC today is a high rep org and fight fixing is EXTREAMLY remote possibility.

No MMA tonight, just some muay thai with Lion Fight on AXS and some boxing online. Small play on this bout:

Golden Boy Promotions middleweight boxing main event tonight on EstrellaTV.com and RingTVLive.com at 10 PM EDT: I'm taking the under at + money on this ten round bout with Puerto Rican Jorge Melendez vs Mexican favorite Antonio Gutierrez. Melendez has won 27 of 29 fights by knockout and lost 4 out of 6 losses by KO or TKO.

Antonio Gutierrez/Jorge Melendez Under 8½ (+135) $74.07 for $100.00

I was going to make a post about this, Macedo is a good prospect but normally fights at 115 so I expect AES to win easily

I know of at least one bettor who is big on Macedo despite the size difference. She does have some skills.

Decided to fire my main spots for the card - i'll likely degen fire a few small 0.2u type plays on each fights I don't have a play on during walk outs for the sweats but this is what I like so far

All base units (risking for dogs, to win for favs)

0.33u Arlovski Dec +800
1.62u Arlovski +140

I'd probably have fired the UD +1150 line instead but after being burned on the Rodriguez and Conor decisions not being unanimous i'm going for the straight up decision as I could definitely see a close fight if it goes the distance with Arlovski getting the better of the striking and Barnett getting the better of the grappling exchanges. I don't think it's going the distance over half the time or anything, just purely an odds play as Barnett is pretty tough to finish and I could see Arlovski using a stick and move gameplan striking and while he'll likely turn Barnett's lights out if he dominates, he could also easily win a competitive or clear decision depending how much cage leaning Barnett does and whether he can get takedowns. I could see this looking a bit like Arlovski vs Mir to be honest if nobody lands anything big in the first 2 rounds with lots of staring exchanges and cage leaning but I trust Arlovski's technical striking to land the better shots over the course of the fight.

2.6u Evans-Smith -255
0.65u Evans-Smith by TKO +425

I don't love firing big favs in WMMA and Macedo is a great prospect with great BJJ... at 115. Evans-Smith is enormous compared to her and handled Pennington before getting submitted, but Pennington is a legit big 135er, I feel like even if Macedo can lock in a triangle or armbar (her only way of winning imo) AES may be able to power or slam her way out of it. On skill, this is a close fight as both ladies are probably underrated, but it's a 135 fighter against a 115 fighter and I feel like this would be something like say prime Urijah Faber fighting at 155 against Eddie Alvarez or whatever (in terms of 'size alone means one guy just isn't going to win) despite both guys having a good skillset.

I've chosen the TKO prop as well as I think AES will finish close to half the time depending on how much heart Macedo has when she's dominated, AES has two wins by TKO and will likely be in top position pummelling Macedo for most of the fight as Macedo works for desperation subs. Macedo is a top BJJ prospect from what i've read (I watched one of her fights which she won by SD and it was contested mostly on the feet) so i've gone with TKO rather than ITD as I don't think AES will be working for subs, she will probably be working the GnP if she chooses to ragdoll Macedo and otherwise the fight will mostly be contested in the standup and she'll likely win a decision but could still drop Macedo and finish her. Macedo has a future in the UFC but she will be moving to 115 after this fight where she belongs.

1.3u Bader by Decision +177

I originally liked Latifi by KO and while he's still somewhat likely to catch Bader early in the first or second, if he doesn't Bader is going to push him up against the cage, work for takedowns and eventually get them. I think the Bader Dec line is better than the straight up value at -200 as he'll win by decision over half the time when he wins. I would have taken Latifi KO at +4xx but it's in to about +280 now and I think Bader dec has the most value out of any line for this one.

0.65u Khabilov -3.5 pts -170

Even though Khabilov isn't as good as we thought he was he will be way better than Silva everywhere. I expect a dominant one sided beatdown enroute to a late TKO or 30-27.

1u Gustafsson -650

I kinda wanted Gustfasson wins in r1 and may still take that too but at the end of the day here this is a gimme fight for Gustafsson, he has a chin if he gets caught by a non-Rumble bomb and while i'm not usually in the habit of risking 6.5u to win a unit, this is one of those fights where one guy is literally better everywhere, and it's hard to even have much of a puncher's chance when Gustafsson has a reach and technique advantage and a decent chin. This sets up Gustafsson to solidify his status as one of the top four at LHW and set up another contender fight for him

0.33u Bang +265

I do think Hein will decision him a lot and deserves to be the favourite but this price is probably too high, Bang barent beat Kuntz who is awful but he was injured before the fight and I think the true line is closer to +200. It'll usually be by KO when he wins but the KO line was only +4xx, I was expecting +6xx to +7xx and planning to fire that but took straight up instead.

Man swoop, I really enjoy your breakdowns I gotta say.

Had a nice 12.3 unit win last week. Posted these bets on twitter 2 days ago:

Latifi 5 units @ 2.90
Arlovski 4 units @ 2.30
Dalby 4 units @ 1.90
Lapilus 3 units @ 1.68

Adding a multiple Khabilov/Evans-Smith/Gustafsson 5 units @ 2.02

Fight cards start at terrible time for Australia so will probably sleep through it, avoid spoilers in the morning and watch the replay on fightpass.
Pretty average card on paper but im really keen on the Latifi fight esp at those huge odds!

Signed up at a new book today and got $200 in bonus bets so decided to fire a bunch of the same props plus some Gustafsson ones to convert them at a reasonable rate rather than finding obscure +1500 underdogs that makes it super obvious that's what i'm trying to do and winding up banned really quickly. All bonus bets so no extra risk, added on 0.5u Gustafsson r1 +200, 0.25u Gus r2 +400, 0.25u Gus r3 +900, 0.25u Arlovski Dec +700, 0.25u Bader Dec +188 and 0.5u Evans-Smith ITD +275. Obviously not the best prices on everything and but it kinda looks like i'm spraying the board on tomorrow's UFC event at small stakes so I figure it's fine since the event is less than a day away. The Evans-Smith covers the small chance of a sub to go with my main TKO play and I do expect Gustafsson to finish so now I have a small sweat on that as well as the straight up play.

I'm a bit tempted to add Gus r1 at +225 on 5d as well but I have no idea whether he'll come out and fight conservatively to guarantee the win or try and knock Blachowicz head off to make a case for a big fight with one of the top 3 guys (whoever isn't fighting for the title next against DC out of Rumble/ Jones) and a title shot if he can win that.

I quite like that Gustafsson/AES/Khabilov play samilace, think it hits over half the time so +102 looks good. I'm tempted to jump on Dalby too, he's steamed in a bit and was leaning Lapilus as well but haven't fired either yet.

I'd actually consider doing more research/watching tape/doing real breakdowns if a site paid me to do it, I actually looked into MMA writing jobs but the pay is garbage and if i'm going to put the effort in to writing high quality breakdowns which would require watching even more tape than I do and using the writing skills I learned at uni in my journalism electives instead of rambling stream-of-consciousness style like I do on the forums i'd need to get paid reasonably for it and the money doesn't seem to be there in MMA journalism

I do enjoy the banter in this thread and a lot of you guys know your stuff and have taught me a lot and helped me to find good spots too.

Don't think Gus is in a hurry to get back in with DC, AJ, or JJ. And I would hope the ufc would build him back a bit more first. If Bader wins think Gus/bader is next, just an easy fight to make and both will have similar timelines barring anything particularly nasty happening to either on this card

While I agree Gustafsson should probably win a second fight to get his confidence back and they just make DC vs Rumble and winner vs Jones without any of them needing to fight again, poor Ryan Bader if they do. Bader would have absolutely nothing for Gustafsson given the TDD he showed in the Jones fight, he's not the same fighter Phil Davis could take down many years ago. I do think that fight makes sense as the UFC has no interest in Bader being anything but a gatekeeper from 'top' to the top contender.

I don't mind both Latifi and Bader, but Bader decision is is today as that's where I ended up despite originally thinking i'd be on Latifi TKO. Out of all possible outcomes it does feel like Bader DEC is the most likely, probably not 50% but I think 40% or so and that's enough at the price I got

I'm having a brain block right now, under 1.5 is??? Round 1 + half of 2?

Yeah, round one and the first 2:30 of round 2

Forgot it's a euro card so it's about to start. Let's do this gl all

Adding 0.33u Khabilov ITD +293

I think he'll dominate and while a dominant 30-27 is more likely I think he finishes often enough +293 is +EV

UFN 93 Risk $2674.03

Andrei Arlovski wins in round 1 (+400) vs Josh Barnett $25.00 for $100.00
Alexander Gustafsson/Jan Blachowicz won’t start round 3 (-127) $50.80 for $40.00
Ilir Latifi (+185) vs Ryan Bader $100.00 for $185.00
Ilir Latifi wins in round 1 (+450) $25.00 for $112.50
Nick Hein wins by 3 round decision (-118) vs Tae Hyun Bang $35.40 for $30.00

Jim Wallhead (-135) vs Jessin Ayari $135.00 for $100.00
Jim Wallhead wins by TKO/KO (+250) $40.00 for $100.00
Nicolas Dalby/Peter Sobotta Under 2½ (+220) $40.00 for $88.00
Ashlee Evans-Smith (-255) vs Veronica Macedo $255.00 for $100.00
Ashlee Evans-Smith wins inside distance (+258)$40.00 for $103.20
Ashlee Evans-Smith/Veronica Macedo Under 2½ (+165) $50.00 for $82.50
Veronica Macedo wins by TKO/KO (+650) $25.00 for $162.50
Veronica Macedo wins in round 1 (+700) $35.00 for $245.00
Taylor Lapilus/Leandro Issa Over 1½ (-180) $90.00 for $50.00
Taylor Lapilus wins in round 3 (+900) $10.00 for $90.00
Jarjis Danho/Christian Colombo won’t go 3 round distance (-195) $97.50 for $50.00
Jack Hermansson (+110) vs Scott Askham $200.00 for $220.00
Jack Hermansson wins by 3 round decision (+270) $37.04 for $100.00
Rustam Khabilov wins by TKO/KO (+425) vs Leandro Silva $25.00 for $106.25
Rustam Khabilov wins in round 3 (+1225) $10.00 for $122.50

Fights to end in KO/TKO over 4½ (+165) $40.00 for $66.00
Fights to end in KO/TKO over 5½ (+445) $25.00 for $111.25
Fights to end in KO/TKO over 6½ (+1324) $15.00 for $198.60
Fights to end in KO/TKO over 7½ (+4625) $10.00 for $462.50
Fights to end in KO/TKO over 8½ (+26000) $5.00 for $1,300.00

Nick Hein/Tae Hyun Bang FOTN award winner (+600) $10.00 for $60.00

Parlays:
Rustam Khabilov (-400) + Alexander Gustafsson (-585) $431.33 for $200.00
Rustam Khabilov (-400) + Nick Hein (-305)+ Alexander Gustafsson (-585) $211.96 for $200.00
Khabilov wins by 3 round decision (-146) + Jack Hermansson (-120) + Wallhead/Ayari won’t go 3 round distance (-125) + Not Bader inside distance -(260) + Gustafsson wins inside distance (-161) + Arlovski/Barnett Over 1½ (-125) $45.00 for $965.94

Round Robins:
Hermansson wins by 3 round decision (+215) + Latifi wins inside distance (+250) + Gustafsson wins by TKO/KO (+110) + Barnett wins inside distance (-104) $125.00 for $903.84

Khabilov wins by TKO/KO (+425) + Danho wins by TKO/KO (+198) + Lapilus wins by TKO/KO (+195) + Wallhead wins by TKO/KO (+250) + Latifi wins by TKO/KO (+280) + Gustafsson wins by TKO/KO (+110) $150.00 for $1586.46

Khabilov wins in round 3 (+1225) + Hermansson wins in round 3 (+1150)+ Lapilus wins in round 3 (+900) + Evans-Smith wins in round 3 (+1000) + Dalby wins in round 3 (+1650) + Wallhead wins in round 3 (+1100) + Bader wins in round 3 (+1050) + Gustafsson wins in round 3 (+550) $280.00 for $38,247.50

Swoop if you love it and are writing quality then watch tape n do it even if it's a blog for a site whatever and worry about monetising it later down the line. That's how half these huge niche podcasts, sites and blogs got started now they make advertising ££€€$$¥¥


My bets for today are as follows

£250 Barnett @ 8/13
£100 bader on points @ 7/4
£25 Latifi round 1 @ 6/1
£100 Gustafson on points @ 9/4 (this is the only price I liked for this fight everything was too short considering lay off n wars despite his great skillset)
£100 on Scott Askham @ 10/11

Good luck everyone

Uhoh. I was about to say easy 10-9 Khabilov but now I need a finish or 10-8 probably

That said because he ended on top theres a chance bad judges could score it for Khabilov, Silva literally threw two or three significant strikes all round and wound up on bottom eating light GnP but rocked him

Hopefully Khabilov can turn it around, Silva so inactive so far. I'll go with two judges scored it for Silva and one for Khabilov on average although I personally have it 10-9 Silva despite Khabilov winning 95% of the round

Ok I concede the ITD may not have been good given how inactive these guys are. Expected Khabilov to come out harder. Relatively happy with the -3.5 despite the fact he may have lost the first round if he wins the third i'm probably a flip to get the -3.5 as i'll only need one judge to score r1 for Khabilov and while I had it for Silva it was very close

If Khabilov can take him down early in the round he could finish I guess

Wow how is this the same guy who beat Jorge Masvidal and looked like he had top 15 potential

Good TDD from Silva but he's so inactive, Khabilov wins the fight now question is can he get the lone 30-27 I need

Fairly terrible fight

I nearly bet Bang/Hein for FOTN at +600 but decided not to last minute

I have it 29-28 Khabilov but 30-27 is probably fine if you overvalue a sweep and light GnP vs two punches that did some damage

30-27 29-28 29-28 one time plz

Khabilov is fade material now I think despite being such a prospect a while ago against any competent striker with TDD