Yeah I've been thinking the same thing - pretty much everyone I've seen / heard who's betting this fight is betting Nate, to the point where you'd expect him to be a decent betting favourite, but the line has hardly moved.

Is there really that much casual money on McGregor? Or are the books taking a side on this one?

I know the Diaz brothers have this cult of invincible cardio around them... and I'm probably just playing devil's advocate here, but have we actually seen a lot of evidence of it in a fight setting from Nate?

He's only gone five rounds once in his career, against Benson Henderson. That was a different fight than this is going to be, and Diaz obviously spent most of the later rounds of that fight on his back or pressed against the cage so it's hard to judge his cardio from that. He didn't look completely gassed for what it's worth, and he was able to get back to his feet several times. He didn't look superhuman though, and Bendo kept up with him.

The only relevant question, obviously, is can Conor keep up with him in the later rounds and we've got NO five-round form on him to go on, other than him clearly gassing in the second round of the last fight.

I'm happy to concede that Diaz will go in with a cardio edge, but I'm not sure it's the guaranteed path to victory that some people are saying it is.

Anyone seen Firas Zahabi's pre-fight breakdown of the fight?

He states that Conor was in fine condition, since he was preparing for a 5 round fight. He didn't gas out physically, it was more a mental thing. It was mostly underestimation and discouragement, like realizing he wont be able to finish Nate early on with his bully style of fighting, that just mentally deflated him, the finish line was suddenly way further out than he thought.

I think it was a combination of both, he was inefficient and not ready for war, but it's also not accurate to state that Conor has a cardio problem or small gastank.

Also Firas mentioned that its easily possible to improve cardio by a lot in a few months. It's way harder to improve strength than it is to improve cardio.

I haven't seen the breakdown but I was about to post something similar in that I'm not convinced he JUST gassed and that's why he lost. He couldn't hurt Nate, he couldn't get inside his head either, then he got tagged and broke mentally. Sure he energy was zapped but it's hard for me to believe that it was due to bad cardio.

People are acting like conor won't adjust his game plan. He's not an idiot his legacy and status as the draw not just a draw requires a win here. Nate can win but acting like he's unbeatable and can't be game planned against the way RDA and bendo did seems crazy. Its like saying no way cain could ever beat JDS after the first or acting like Ronda is drawing dead vs Holm in a rematch. The odds are close for a reason but acting like the first fight was one sided beatdown is wrong Conor came in with a bad game plan and used his energy poorly. We might see a repeat where conor gets rocked or gasses we might see conor 50-45 or dominate and tko him.

It's mma. Of course anything could happen. But the bottom line is Diaz took a fight short notice and Conor punched himself out and got smacked.

Assuming Diaz doesn't throw this fight for a trilogy , idk how Conor goes the distance. He looked pretty bad vs Mendez like he was gassing as well.

I think the further this match goes on the better chance Conor loses.

Yeah, I think he more broke mentally than physically vs Nate first time around. Also, Conor seem to be the type of fighter who constantly looks like he's breathing heavy, kind of like Cruz in that he isn't as tired as he looks. Also, I can think of several fighter who are higher pace than the Diaz brothers and have better cardio, Mighty Mouse, Cruz, Dillashaw, GSP (when he doesn't have to work for it with takedowns vs Hendricks for instance).

Also this talk about Nate throwing the fight, just don't see it. For all we know, Conor might just toss the 3rd fight aside if he wins, saying he gave the first fight away, considering he beat Nate 80% of the fight and gameplanned correctly in the 2nd.

+1 If he demolishes Nate I won't care for a third. If it's a superclose action packed fight that goes five Nate giving up in the fifth would be kinda smart tho lol.

Can't believe the amount of discussion around this fight - Diaz all day, he's bigger, got a greater skill set and he beat him on 10 days notice with no camp.

Diaz is a fighter, Connor is an entertainer.

Connor will go on to get smashed by Aldo and Nate will be propelled into the title picture at 170.*

Disclaimer* I might be totally wrong.

From what I can tell, Conor seems to think all he needs is better cardio to beat Nate. Not necessarily a different game plan.

did conor even really hurt nate with his strongest shots? not the blood, he bleeds after 1 punch every single fight and it hurts nothing except the judges eyes maybe.

like he landed tons of shots on nate, but they didnt seem to slow nate down even a little bit. As soon as nate started to land it was game over. Not cardio or game plan, just straight up rocking him with his 1-2.

the only logical excuse would be he was tired from throwing these big shots, so nate could then pepper him with the 1-2 in later rounds. we will see if that is the case and conor just hops around jabbing and evading for 5 rounds. just dont see that happening tho.

i cant believe diaz is still getting the odds he is.

I don't know why but I have this feeling Nate is totally capable of throwing this fight to get the trilogy going. He should be a -140 / -150 favorite otherwise. I think I'll just enjoy the fight and pass on a bet.

Yep he's definitely been emphasising his cardio and endurance work in the leadup. For what it's worth though, he's also been saying this is the first fight he's ever really game planned for, so we'll see what that's worth.

It definitely appears like he's been bringing in much bigger and stronger guys than usual to spar with.

not a very brotherly thing to say nick.

It's all about the benjamins, trips to Cabo don't pay themselves homeboys.

Nate wasn't dazed or hurt really at all in the first fight. he was bleeding and took shots but was never in any trouble. Conor on the other hand took a couple solid 1-2's and dove to the ground to avoid getting KO'd. There wasn't even and attempt at defense to the choke. Conor got broken.

I'm sure Conor has made adjustments and game planned but I'm sure he's not the only one. Nate is well aware of what Conor is trying to change and improve. It's not like Conor has something in his arsenal that Nate isn't ready for or hasn't seen. He's felt his power. Nate should really be trying to get this fight to the ground at some point.

going to rewatch first fight right now actually

Question for the expert bettors out there

When you see a line like Cody at -550 do you ever just pile on it? Basically just saying he's really very very rarely losing here and just taking the "free money" you could say. Kinda like if the Patriots were at home vs the Jaguars or something and just dumping on the pats ML cause they are almost never losing there despite the super crappy price?

I hate betting on big favorites. Anything past -250 is just not worth it in my humble opinion.

In MMA nothing is guaranteed. This is really not like football. You are better to find a good spot at almost even lines.

Having said that, my biggest winning year (around +32 units) I was really green and used to bet huge on really big favorites. That all changed when Reem got punched on the throat by Bigfoot. Lost so much $ on that fight

yeah I would definitely avoid big favorites, if you would have bet the (big)favorites this year, I'm sure you would be down quite a lot. You could put them in a parlay here and there. I'm leaning more to a strategy where I only pick very live dogs to bet on.

I'll be working the 202 presser tomorrow, live on ufc.tv at 1pm.

You ought to know...

As others have said above, taking big favourites in MMA in particular is just asking for trouble. Just think about all the big favourites who've lost in the past few years: Barao was a HUGE favourite over Dillashaw, Rousey was too over Holm, Cain over Werdum, RDA was a big favourite over Alvarez, Silva over Weidman, the list goes on.

So I'd never consider any MMA fight to be "free money". Hell even the softball that was Silva v Cormier at 200 had some hairy moments...

The better value in MMA IMO tends to be on the closer odds and in picking the right live dogs.

...and speaking of live dogs, anyone got any thoughts on Rick Story's chances of beating Cerrone?

Nate was a 5:1 underdog vs Conor the first time around

http://www.betmma.tips/mma_betting_f..._underdogs.php


This stat site has a sample of 1062 mma fights, if you did nothing but bet underdogs you would have ended with a 6% ROI. If you bet only favorites a -4% ROI. I first checked these stats only a month ago and I remember then it was +7% DOGS and -7% FAVS.

Perfect example IMO of a very live dog, I will be betting him for sure

Story looked good in his last fight against Safedienne, (who is also solid Muay Thai style striker similair to Cerrone) Story should have clear power advantage, wich should take away Cerrone's clinch game, combined with good wrestling and just being overall though and strong I see Cerrone might very well get overwhelmed.

This will be the first time Cerrone will face a legit top 10 WW who has a lot of experience and wins over great fighters, a real step up in competition in the WW division for Cerrone.

Cerrone should have the edge on the feet, with his long reach, he might be able to keep it on the feet and pick story apart from range. He looked great vs Cote, but I just believe Story to be a totally different animal, and really like him at this price.