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Old 07-31-2016, 09:03 AM   #37651
westswindon
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Re: MMA Thread

Another 5 unit loss card for me.. Thanks Brown.

It might be better if I stop betting favs that look like a bag of crap.
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Old 07-31-2016, 09:38 AM   #37652
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Re: MMA Thread

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Originally Posted by Wh1teNorth View Post

1u Lawler -150
1u Karolina Decision +320
1u Krylov -220
1u Brown TKO -110
1.5u Brown/Ellenberger OVER 1.5 +110
0.50u Ellenberger DEC +500
0.10u Parlay Lawler/Namajunas/Brown/Rivera/Reis/Krylov/Grabowski +3211
Invested 6.1u
Returned 5.6u

What a wash of a card, thanks Matt Brown/Lawler.
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Old 07-31-2016, 10:45 AM   #37653
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Re: MMA Thread

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The main concern I have is that Lawler has come super-close to being stopped in his past few fights. There were moments against both Condit and Macdonald where they'd backed Lawler onto the fence and they were raining down shots on him, and they were probably unlucky not to be granted a stoppage. I think if it was a different ref, or maybe anyone other than Lawler they were fighting, it probably would have been.

So I just wonder what does that look like when you take out Condit or Macdonald and insert someone who hits as hard as Woodley?

I think there's almost certainly value in Woodley by T/KO at +325ish
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how did no one on this thread have woodley? i thought for a couple weeks that Lawler was gonna go down hard
Just saying :P

Small loss on the card for me, haven't had much time to watch film and handicap lately so was only on a couple of fights. Matt Brown losing and Reis finishing quickly cost me.
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Old 07-31-2016, 11:37 AM   #37654
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Re: MMA Thread

Wow, Woodley is so clearly scared of Wonderboy

“I think you said you wanted to fight Robbie Lawler, and you’ll get the opportunity to fight Robbie Lawler,” Woodley told Thompson. “Nick Diaz comes off suspension in two days. He’s a money fight. I’ve been in this game, I’m an OG, I’ve been here for a while. I want to make the big dough, so if he wants to fight August with his brother Nate Diaz [at UFC 202], I think me and him can showdown at the event. I’m uninjured. August, I’m ready to go, 202.

The UFC had better not oblige him unless it's at UFC 202. He can pick his opponent if he's fighting again in 3 weeks and willing to defend again at UFC 205 or so, otherwise Wonderboy is next. Nick Diaz getting another title shot after losing 3 straight and being on a year and a half layoff would be absurd though. He hasn't won a fight since his before last title shot. Literally his last win was in October 2011. To emphasise how ridiculous that is Dan Henderson has 4 wins since Nick Diaz's last win, Silva/Sonnen 2 hadn't happened yet, Cain Velasquez had never fought JDS, the FOX deal hadn't happened yet and Mighty Mouse had just fought pre injury Dominick Cruz at Bantamweight.

I'll definitely be considering a 10 unit bet if Wonderboy opens at even money against Woodley in his first defense.

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Old 07-31-2016, 11:48 AM   #37655
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Re: MMA Thread

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I agree that Nate wins but as unlikely as points is for mcgregor having had more time to prepare and adjust to the weight, he does have speed advantage, as well as learning lesson from last fight where he unloaded everything fresh out the gates, the possibility of him cutting angles n sticking n moving is actually a route to victory as slim as it looks. I just see zero way he stops Diaz in the distance his power did not appear to transfer over although he had good speed and Nate is just tough sob.

Which way do u guys expect the line to move? McGregor mania has him backed in? Or money flies on Nate? I'm not sure weather to bet now or wait till fight night.
I agree with you, although I'm not sure he has any speed advantage if Nate has a full camp, if Conor is smart he should fight exactly like that, a lot more tactical and points based. But have you ever seen Conor fight like that. He goes in all guns blazing, killed or be killed (sure he tapped blah blah) it's true though. All his previous fights he goes all out early. I suspect it is because his cardio is not strong enough. Look at his fight with Mendez, I think he was close to gassing and losing that 1 tbh, it was just that Mendez gassed sooner.

I agree about his strength too, sure last time he got Nate with good shots, but if Nate is anything close to when he fought Johnson, I really don't see Conor being a threat to him.

As the line, won't all the Irish fish bet on Conor, getting Nate over evens is a great bet imo, I mean he destroyed Conor on 11 days camp.

All my opinion though!
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Old 07-31-2016, 11:50 AM   #37656
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Re: MMA Thread

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Wow, Woodley is so clearly scared of Wonderboy

“I think you said you wanted to fight Robbie Lawler, and you’ll get the opportunity to fight Robbie Lawler,” Woodley told Thompson. “Nick Diaz comes off suspension in two days. He’s a money fight. I’ve been in this game, I’m an OG, I’ve been here for a while. I want to make the big dough, so if he wants to fight August with his brother Nate Diaz [at UFC 202], I think me and him can showdown at the event. I’m uninjured. August, I’m ready to go, 202.

The UFC had better not oblige him unless it's at UFC 202. He can pick his opponent if he's fighting again in 3 weeks and willing to defend again at UFC 205 or so, otherwise Wonderboy is next. Nick Diaz getting another title shot after losing 3 straight and being on a year and a half layoff would be absurd though. He hasn't won a fight since his before last title shot. Literally his last win was in October 2011. To emphasise how ridiculous that is Dan Henderson has 4 wins since Nick Diaz's last win, Silva/Sonnen 2 hadn't happened yet, Cain Velasquez had never fought JDS, the FOX deal hadn't happened yet and Mighty Mouse had just fought pre injury Dominick Cruz at Bantamweight.

I'll definitely be considering a 10 unit bet if Wonderboy opens at even money against Woodley in his first defense.
10 units! You are confident! Doesn't Woodley KO Wonderboy too? That would be my bet tbh, first round again! No way Wonderboy does not get the title shot next. He should of got it last time imo, without fighting Rory.
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Old 07-31-2016, 12:12 PM   #37657
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Re: MMA Thread

Without looking at their specifics I don't see how Woodley outpoints Wonderboy on the feet, and Im assuming Wonderboy has solid tdd and maybe even a better grappler? (I'm speculating that way since I can't remember the last time i've seen woodley enforce his grappling on anyone). So even tho i'm talking out of my ass at the moment, wonderboy beats woodley, early round KOs for woodley as a hedge prolly a boss hedge, and wonderboy runs that show for a while.

Let's see if I agree with myself after rewatching their tapes lol.
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Old 07-31-2016, 12:13 PM   #37658
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Re: MMA Thread

Rory Macdonald couldn't land a significant strike on Wonderboy and handled Woodley standing with ease. Wonderboy is just entering his prime now at 33, his chin is fine as he's never been finished and only had one war (Brown in 2012 when he was green in MMA) and has never been finished. Wonderboy uses a karate stance so he's harder to hit like Machida in his prime and has far more technical striking than Condit or Lawler who Woodley handled standing. Wonderboy is 57-0 in kickboxing, he is not going to lose a striking battle which means Woodley will need to wrestle to win. Even Matt Brown had to wrestle to win and that was in 2012 and Wonderboy's TDD is light years ahead of where it was then. Woodleys shot that put out Lawler was quick, but I don't think he even has pace as an advantage over Wonderboy, they're pretty similar but Wonderboy has better technique.

The way he finished Lawler was impressive, but I expect Wonderboy would have done the same thing, granted maybe not in the first round. Lawler is only Woodley's second win in the UFC that doesn't come with an asterisk and that was basically a first punch ends the fight shot. Gastelum missed weight and it was a split decision, Kim decided to throw spinning elbows because he wanted to entertain the fans (still a legit win, but his opponent did something insane and was not fighting to his strengths), Condit got injured mid fight (granted Woodley won the first round), Koscheck was way past his prime and Hieron isn't top 50.

I mean, Woodley has shown he is a legit top 5 WW, and he's a better fighter than when he lost to Shields and Marquardt in 2012/2013 but the Rory loss was only six months before his layoff prior to the current fight and he was dominated on the feet for three rounds by a quality striker from range, and then Wonderboy did exactly to Rory what Rory did to Woodley. Woodley will need to get to the inside and land a huge bomb to KO Wonderboy and while it's possible it certainly isn't likely, so he'll need to mix in takedowns to win rounds while not getting knocked out standing. I just don't see how he does it, I can't see anyone in the division hanging with Wonderboy on the feet including Condit, once again 57-0 in kickboxing

Woodley's best plan is to shoot for takedowns every time Wonderboy kicks and make him scared to throw kicks and/or take it to the ground.

Don't get me wrong, Woodley is live against anyone but he is a huge underdog here imo, probably the second biggest favourite for a non-champ vs a champ than I can recall (with first being Shogun vs Jones) in the post UFC 100 era.

We don't know whether Wonderboy is a good grappler now or not, he wasn't really against Matt Brown but that was 4 years ago and shortly after his MMA debut and it still went to a clear but competitive decision in his only loss. Since then he has improved his TDD enough that nobody has put him on his back so we haven't seen it (including Hendricks and Rory who can both wrestle)

For what it's worth i'll only be firing the huge bet if it opens as a pick'em, if it's Wonderboy -150 or so like I expect i'll make something like a 2-3u bet and if it's -200 i'll probably go a single unit as i'd cap it at -2xx for Wonderboy. I just think it's unlikely he opens as that big a fav against a defending champ who just won the title by KOing Lawler in r1 especially when Woodley has steamed in a lot in his last few fights.
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Old 07-31-2016, 12:55 PM   #37659
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Re: MMA Thread

Don't champs get ppv points? I don't think hes scared, trying to get Nick on 202 is a money move plain and simple.
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Old 07-31-2016, 12:59 PM   #37660
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Re: MMA Thread

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10 units! You are confident! Doesn't Woodley KO Wonderboy too? That would be my bet tbh, first round again! No way Wonderboy does not get the title shot next. He should of got it last time imo, without fighting Rory.
Woodley is going to have a hell of a time trying to land a bomb on Wonderboy.
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Old 07-31-2016, 01:08 PM   #37661
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Re: MMA Thread

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Without looking at their specifics I don't see how Woodley outpoints Wonderboy on the feet, and Im assuming Wonderboy has solid tdd and maybe even a better grappler? (I'm speculating that way since I can't remember the last time i've seen woodley enforce his grappling on anyone). So even tho i'm talking out of my ass at the moment, wonderboy beats woodley, early round KOs for woodley as a hedge prolly a boss hedge, and wonderboy runs that show for a while.

Let's see if I agree with myself after rewatching their tapes lol.
LOL, yeah that's exactly how I see it too, obv Wonderboy outpoints him + his cardio better, I think Woodley has some cardio probs, correct me if I'm wrong. The problem is nobody hits like Woodley, once you get hit, you can have the best cardio in the world, and I'm not even talking getting rocked.

I'd imagine Woodley dominating him on the ground too, that is if he can get Wonerboy to the ground. Honestly if Wonderboy gets ground and pounded for a round I'm really not sure if he can keep up that cardio + distance + speed routine.

It'll be an interesting one to watch, that's for sure. For sure I'd take Wonderboy vs Robbie, but I'm not so sure vs Woodley, he poses a lot more danger imo.
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Old 07-31-2016, 01:21 PM   #37662
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Re: MMA Thread

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Rory Macdonald couldn't land a significant strike on Wonderboy and handled Woodley standing with ease. Wonderboy is just entering his prime now at 33, his chin is fine as he's never been finished and only had one war (Brown in 2012 when he was green in MMA) and has never been finished. Wonderboy uses a karate stance so he's harder to hit like Machida in his prime and has far more technical striking than Condit or Lawler who Woodley handled standing. Wonderboy is 57-0 in kickboxing, he is not going to lose a striking battle which means Woodley will need to wrestle to win. Even Matt Brown had to wrestle to win and that was in 2012 and Wonderboy's TDD is light years ahead of where it was then. Woodleys shot that put out Lawler was quick, but I don't think he even has pace as an advantage over Wonderboy, they're pretty similar but Wonderboy has better technique.

The way he finished Lawler was impressive, but I expect Wonderboy would have done the same thing, granted maybe not in the first round. Lawler is only Woodley's second win in the UFC that doesn't come with an asterisk and that was basically a first punch ends the fight shot. Gastelum missed weight and it was a split decision, Kim decided to throw spinning elbows because he wanted to entertain the fans (still a legit win, but his opponent did something insane and was not fighting to his strengths), Condit got injured mid fight (granted Woodley won the first round), Koscheck was way past his prime and Hieron isn't top 50.

I mean, Woodley has shown he is a legit top 5 WW, and he's a better fighter than when he lost to Shields and Marquardt in 2012/2013 but the Rory loss was only six months before his layoff prior to the current fight and he was dominated on the feet for three rounds by a quality striker from range, and then Wonderboy did exactly to Rory what Rory did to Woodley. Woodley will need to get to the inside and land a huge bomb to KO Wonderboy and while it's possible it certainly isn't likely, so he'll need to mix in takedowns to win rounds while not getting knocked out standing. I just don't see how he does it, I can't see anyone in the division hanging with Wonderboy on the feet including Condit, once again 57-0 in kickboxing

Woodley's best plan is to shoot for takedowns every time Wonderboy kicks and make him scared to throw kicks and/or take it to the ground.

Don't get me wrong, Woodley is live against anyone but he is a huge underdog here imo, probably the second biggest favourite for a non-champ vs a champ than I can recall (with first being Shogun vs Jones) in the post UFC 100 era.

We don't know whether Wonderboy is a good grappler now or not, he wasn't really against Matt Brown but that was 4 years ago and shortly after his MMA debut and it still went to a clear but competitive decision in his only loss. Since then he has improved his TDD enough that nobody has put him on his back so we haven't seen it (including Hendricks and Rory who can both wrestle)

For what it's worth i'll only be firing the huge bet if it opens as a pick'em, if it's Wonderboy -150 or so like I expect i'll make something like a 2-3u bet and if it's -200 i'll probably go a single unit as i'd cap it at -2xx for Wonderboy. I just think it's unlikely he opens as that big a fav against a defending champ who just won the title by KOing Lawler in r1 especially when Woodley has steamed in a lot in his last few fights.
A lot of wisdom here for sure, and I agree with you. Couple things I'd like to add though. Firstly Rory did not look himself vs Wonderboy, that or Wonderboy just made him look slow and well kind of average. In my opinion Rory looked much better vs Robbie.

You'd think Robbie would easily outpoint Woodley too, but here you go. Fighters are well aware of one punch KO fighters, Robbie seemed hesitant to fight, unless he always starts like that. Wonderboy has to be somewhat worried to get too close to Woodley.

It'll probably be one of these fights, either Woodley Ko's him early or Wonderboy wins.
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Old 07-31-2016, 03:17 PM   #37663
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Re: MMA Thread

Been into UFC for the last year or so, reading this thread for last couple of months. Definetly in my top 3 favourite sports to watch now. The thread has been great at getting some insights into fights with some analysis/insight.

I only really bet casually, to make the fights more interesting and to provide a nice sweat! Highlights so far being:

Bisping vs Rockhold 2 - Bisping KO and Bisping to win in 1st round (I'm from England so had to root for him!)

3 fold parlay on Fight Night Rotterdam - Nelson by sub/Overeem Round 2 and something else. Was around 25/1 (+2500)

I definetly gear towards parlays and round/method props. High variance but way more fun than betting singles on favs, as a casual bettor this seems like the best option. Maybe one day I'll try get into actually trying to find +ev markets through analysis and study

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I'll definitely be considering a 10 unit bet if Wonderboy opens at even money against Woodley in his first defense.
How much is 1u for you out of interest? I love your breakdowns so please keep it up. Helps me get into the sport even more and see the ins and outs of the sport.

Thank you everyone and gl in your future bets!

Adam
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Old 07-31-2016, 04:09 PM   #37664
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Re: MMA Thread

Ohw yea Swoops:

Rory was going for the stupid ankle TD, like every 1 min, it was so easy to spot my granny would of defended that too. While Rory did attempt to take him down, I doubt he is on the same level as Woodley when it comes to wrestling, something to think about. Havent watched the Hendricks fight but that should be an interesting watch, think I'll go watch that one, lets see if he even attempted a TD.

Well Hendricks looks pretty average here too. Perhaps Wonderboy is just that good he makes these fighters look silly bad.

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Old 07-31-2016, 04:24 PM   #37665
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Re: MMA Thread

I don't think Rory will ever be the same after that war with Lawler. I wonder about Condit and Hendricks too. Lawler as well after all these fights. WW has seen some straight brutality under Robbie's rise and reign.

Not to take a thing away from wonderboy or even woodley, but as deep as the division is they are facing these guys after having their lives likely literally shortened by the each other, so comparing how they handle them is not apples to apples IMO. .
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Old 07-31-2016, 05:10 PM   #37666
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Re: MMA Thread

Great fight Wonderboy v Brown, granted Wonderboy still a little green but he got some heart. If Woodley does fight similar it will be interesting to see how Stephen copes with it.

Agree with you Johnny. The Wonderboy v Woodley fight, both are fresh and in there prime, should make it even better.
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Old 07-31-2016, 06:32 PM   #37667
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Re: MMA Thread

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It'll probably be one of these fights, either Woodley Ko's him early or Wonderboy wins.
I think in order to KO Wonderboy Woodley is really going to have to mix in TD's and make it somewhat of a brawl. He's not just fighting a better striker, he's fighting arguably the best striker in the UFC. I'm not sure how much his power and athleticism are going to fill that gap. If he only decides to strike he will slow down way before Wonderboy and then probably get KO'd. I'm curious to see if he goes for TD's right away or if that's plan b.
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Old 07-31-2016, 09:33 PM   #37668
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Re: MMA Thread

So there's been an interesting question floating around after this weekend: UFC 205 at Madison Square Garden still doesn't have a headliner (or any booked fights, AFAIK), who's going to wind up headlining it?

Seems almost certain Rousey won't be back until next year if, she comes back at all. Jon Jones is out. Cormier isn't that big of a draw on his own (though I suspect he's their fallback option if they can't get anyone bigger). I dunno if Dominic Cruz is big enough to headline in his own right. Amanda Nunes definitely isn't, nor is Mighty Mouse or Eddie Alvarez. Joanna isn't there yet either, and they'll probably give her Kowalkavicz in Poland now. Bisping should be fighting Hendo in England. It's probably too soon to turn around the winner of Miocic-Overeem.

I can only assume they're hoping McGregor comes out of 202 in good enough condition to turn around and headline it... probably against Aldo for the title?

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Wow, Woodley is so clearly scared of Wonderboy

ďI think you said you wanted to fight Robbie Lawler, and youíll get the opportunity to fight Robbie Lawler,Ē Woodley told Thompson. ďNick Diaz comes off suspension in two days. Heís a money fight. Iíve been in this game, Iím an OG, Iíve been here for a while. I want to make the big dough, so if he wants to fight August with his brother Nate Diaz [at UFC 202], I think me and him can showdown at the event. Iím uninjured. August, Iím ready to go, 202.
I dunno that I'd call being scared of Wonderboy per se - I think this is just the UFC in the post-McGregor world. All Woodley knows is he has the belt right now. He doesn't know how long he's going to keep it, so he's angling for the biggest fight he can to get at least one big payday out of it.

It's stupid from a matchmaking perspective and it almost certainly won't happen (though making it for 202 on the same card as Nate is his best shot by far). But I can hardly blame the guy for wanting to make the most of his limited opportunities.

FWIW I think he's a live dog against Wonderboy. There's one certainty in a Woodley-Wonderboy fight though: the PPV numbers will be underwhelming.
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Old 07-31-2016, 09:58 PM   #37669
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Re: MMA Thread

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$10 to win $170 on ellenberger, karolina and woodley
Well done, I had this parlay too for my only bet of the card so felt awesome to god mode the card.

Certainly needed it after losing big with rda, holm, etc.
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Old 07-31-2016, 10:25 PM   #37670
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Re: MMA Thread

Woodley calling out Nick Diaz and GSP just doesn't make any sense. I think this is just to get more attention and try to draw a huge crowd for his next fight. By trying to show he isn't interested in Wonderboy he's creating a scenario that he's in control. But we all know it's Woodley vs Wonderboy next. Woodley knows this too. I guess he's trying to play mind games...?
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Old 07-31-2016, 10:28 PM   #37671
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Re: MMA Thread

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How much is 1u for you out of interest? I love your breakdowns so please keep it up. Helps me get into the sport even more and see the ins and outs of the sport.

Thank you everyone and gl in your future bets!

Adam
100 AUD/about 75 USD is a standard unit for me for MMA

For 205, I think Conor vs Aldo 2 will be the plan if Conor is healthy after the Diaz fight assuming Conor is willing to go back to 145. If not i'd expect it to be Conor for the 155 belt and maybe Cormier vs Rumble 2 (assuming he beats Glover impressively) co-headlining. Rousey vs Nunes is a chance if she comes back too and Cruz could definitely co-headline but isn't quite a big enough draw to headline a 'special' event by himself.

I'd be fine with Woodley fighting Diaz first ONLY if it's at 202. Absurd to give him a title shot when Hendo has won FOUR fights since Diaz last won one, but if he's going to defend it 3 weeks after he won it he can handpick his opponent as long as he fights the #1 contender within 3-6 months after that. Otherwise, Woodley vs Wonderboy would be the perfect fight to co-headline Conor at 205 as it will increase their exposure and increase the drawing power of the winner, plus the fight is likely to either be a war or end in a spectacular KO. Winner gets Condit or Maia after that. Loser of Condit/Maia gets Lawler.

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Old 07-31-2016, 11:51 PM   #37672
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Re: MMA Thread

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Woodley calling out Nick Diaz and GSP just doesn't make any sense. I think this is just to get more attention and try to draw a huge crowd for his next fight.
...and you've just spelled out exactly why calling out Diaz and GSP makes perfect sense :P

He knows he's not a draw on his own. He knows Wonderboy isn't a big draw either. And there's no guarantee that Wonderboy is next. Sure it makes sense from a matchmaking perspective but the UFC hasn't been letting little details like that get in their way.

If GSP were to decide to come out of retirement and he decided he wanted to fight Woodley, you know the UFC would push Wonderboy out of the way in a heartbeat to make that fight.

And if it doesn't work, if he doesn't get one of those fights? He hasn't lost anything. He can still fight Wonderboy or whoever else and pull the same lousy numbers he would have if he hadn't opened his mouth about wanting Diaz or GSP. It's a no-lose situation for him.
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Old 08-01-2016, 06:31 AM   #37673
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Re: MMA Thread

You think Woodley think he's a fav over Nick/GSP and the exposure he gets from fighting on a Conor card + the fact that he wins will put him up there to fight for serious cash? + He still champion and get paid more that way, makes sense that he wants to avoid Wonderboy and keep that belt as long as possible.
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Old 08-01-2016, 06:45 AM   #37674
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I think in order to KO Wonderboy Woodley is really going to have to mix in TD's and make it somewhat of a brawl. He's not just fighting a better striker, he's fighting arguably the best striker in the UFC. I'm not sure how much his power and athleticism are going to fill that gap. If he only decides to strike he will slow down way before Wonderboy and then probably get KO'd. I'm curious to see if he goes for TD's right away or if that's plan b.
Exactly my point, his game MUST be to take Wonderboy down at every opportunity. Wonderboy lost to Brown because of the TD's. Kinda like how Brock immobilized Hunt, it's not sexy but it can get the job done.

Yeah thinking about this some more, I agree, Woodley likely to slow down further we get into the fight. His wrestling might get him into trouble too, if he attempts and misses the TD's.

Feel like Wonderboy has to be the fav at the bookies.
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Old 08-01-2016, 09:08 AM   #37675
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Location: Australia
Posts: 22,109
Re: MMA Thread

For what it's worth I think Woodley crushes Nick Diaz with ease, Diaz is the easiest matchup in the top 10 for anyone with competent striking and offensive wrestling, stand a little, shoot when the chance is there and lay on top of Diaz landing light GnP for the second half of every round and don't get submitted. Basically Woodley would do to Nick what Benson Henderson did to Nate. I think i'd take Woodley to -200 against Diaz, and I don't think there's any other top 10 WW I could say that about.

Against GSP I think it depends whether GSP was ever roiding or not, and whether he's declined since retirement. Assuming the answers are no and no, I think GSP wins a 50-45 fairly comfortably via being better everywhere unless Woodley catches him with a shot to KO him which he would maybe 1 in 4-5 fights. If GSP is past it now, then Woodley KO's him. I'd definitely take GSP if the odds opened at evens or so both sides.

I'm almost certain Hendricks was roided against GSP so i'm willing to excuse that fight being close.
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