Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE
We'll see in Weidman's next fight then. I'll be betting against both Weidman and Maia probably if they draw any combination of Bisping/Belfort/Munoz in their next fights respectively. I'd like to see Weidman/Munoz and Bisping/Maia next, both fights make sense imo.
So anyway, on to 143
I like Werdum the most (-120 at the moment, he was -105 for a while but I didn't have $ on the site, feel he closes -170 to -200). If Werdum stays under -130 when the pinnacle line opens i'll probably get 3-5 units or so on him depending on the odds.
I felt like the line opened with value on Diaz at evens but now as condit drifts out towards +200 I might get on Condit for a small amount if he gets to the +200 region
Also probably going to parlay Kos/Herman/Barao, pretty confident in all three of them, although very little value betting individually. I'm hoping I can get Barao at better than -200, a lot of people seem to be saying Jorgensen by decision so I hope the line moves in that direction so I can get on Barao.
Poirier is obviously a bet if his odds are remotely reasonable, and Brown against Cope. Rest of the undercard i'm probably staying away from. Thinking I might end up doing a 3-fight round-robin style parlay covering each combo with most of the favourites (Herman Barao Werdum Kos Poirier Brown) since I like most of the favourites this card, 4/6 will probably be slightly under breakeven to breakeven and I feel like we get 5/6 or 6/6 more than 3/6 by quite a bit. Depends on odds I guess.
Does anyone see a likely path to victory for Roy Nelson other than a random TKO if he catches Werdum? It really seems like it should be Werdum -220 or something, I feel like i'm missing something here.
Also anyone care to speculate on how big favourites Matt Brown and Dustin Poirier will be?
I feel the line is right in that Nelson fight, I see it as a tossup. If Werdum gets takedowns he will win for sure but I don't really see that happening. Nelson has real heavyweight power so a TKO wouldn't exactly be "random" lol...
I also think Jorgenson has a decent shot to decision Barao but I'm not sure I can really bet on it. The guy gets results there's no denying that but he hasn't always been impressive doing it (dropped round to Banuelos, struggled some with Pickett etc).
The line I'm most looking forward to is Mike Pierce. I think his fight with Koscheck is a closely matched one and I feel he's definitely got an edge against Koscheck on the feet. Should be some really good underdog value there.