Quote:
Originally Posted by mxga917
2 units on Holly @-400, gonna add more as the week goes on but without review i don't see how Valentina has a chance at all.
Like the Casey fight last week, I haven't gone back and reviewed tape from outside the UFC. But...
To me Shevchenko's huge, glaring weakness seems to be off her back. Nunes mauled her there for two rounds, and Kaufmann took a round off her there too. She doesn't have the tools to get back up or even control her opponent's posture.
Is Holm really going to take her down though? Seems unlikely.
That leaves a stand up fight. Holm is a dedicated outfighter, great footwork, she's good at maintaining her preferred distance, she's got the height and reach advantage here and she throws decent volume when she's not worried about takedowns. And she's obviously got outstanding coaching. She's favourite for a reason.
I can see ways this won't go all Holm's way though. Shevchenko is a beast in the clinch if she can get the fight there. And she keeps a light front leg, so Holm's low-line/oblique kicks may not be as effective as they are against opponents who plant all their weight there. She's got cardio for days, so I wouldn't be surprised to see her match Holm in that regard for five rounds.
I expect Holm to win but I wouldn't be surprised to see Shevchenko take a round or two if she can get the clinch. -400 for Holm feels pretty steep to me.
Quote:
Originally Posted by tokeweed
I agree. I can't decide what to bet on though, Holm ITD or Holm via Decision. I really think Holm's motivation to show the UFC and everyone she isn't a fluke after that bad beat vs Tate is key here.
Holm decision is probably decent value at the -108ish I'm seeing? She doesn't actually throw with that much power, her knockouts have tended to come when opponents have been dumb enough to walk into / duck onto her head kicks.
I'd be surprised if a striker as experienced as Shevchenko fell for that. KO is only paying around +180 and I don't see her getting the knockout even 1/3 times, even in a five round fight.