Yeah, I genuinely believe Cormier didn't want to really hurt Silva. It's why I picked him by sub, obv know now that decision was the correct play there...

I'm not saying i'd take Brock at evens, i'm saying i'd take him at +300 by putting him in the second tier

Werdum is the only fighter i'd take at close to evens against Cain, I think he just matches up well stylistically. I probably wouldn't hit even Werdum unless he was a small dog though. I'd take Reem, Miocic, JDS and Brock at +300 as well as Werdum obviously but I think Cain is a bigger fav than that against everyone else in the division

With hindsight, my Cormier DEC +260 was probably my best bet of UFC 200 EV wise although at the time I was less certain of it than my Cain, Cain minus pts, Cain ITD and Cain TKO props. Looking back and re-capping the card assuming all fighters were healthy and rematched tomorrow

I missed the early prelims and haven't had a chance to watch them yet so won't do those - i'd say if I had to set a line for everything in an immediate rematch it'd look something like this

Sage -200 vs Marin
TJ -380 vs Assuncao
Gastelum -160 vs Hendricks
Pena -140 vs Zingano
Cain -700 vs Browne
Aldo -220 vs Edgar
Cormier -600 vs Anderson
Lesnar -140 vs Hunt
Nunes -110 vs Tate

I actually think Anderson has a slightly better shot than Travis, both only have a puncher's chance, Travis has that it's a HW fight working for him but Anderson has better striking and a slight chance Cormier makes a mistake on the ground and gets subbed, Travis literally has elbows during a takedown attempt and a puncher's chance as a worse striker.

Matchmaking from here will be interesting in a few divisions. I'll go with the assumption Rousey isn't returning for a Nunes fight yet, obviously Rousey gets an immediate title shot when she returns.

Nunes vs Pena (if Shevchenko wins or Holm is unimpressive) or Nunes vs Holm (if Holm finishes Shevchenko or wins impressively)

If it's Holm fighting for the belt make Pena vs McMann. If it's Rousey fighting for the belt, make Pena vs Holm for #1 contender (all assuming Holm beats Shevchenko)

Tate vs Zingano 2

Cormier vs Rumble/Glover winner

Anderson vs Uriah Hall (i'd love to see Rockhold here, but Anderson needs a win badly and Rockhold is throwing him to the wolves again even though he's very live)

Aldo vs McGregor 2 (assuming McGregor doesn't move to 155 to fight Alvarez instead and wants to unify the belts/can make 145)

Aldo vs Holloway (if McGregor moves to 155/170 permanently)

Lesnar vs JDS (if he wants a #1 contender fight)

Lesnar vs Struve (if he just wants fun/money fights)

Gastelum vs Meek (assuming he wins his debut - can't risk derailing Wonderboy or the Condit/Maia winner as those should be Lawler's next two opponents after Woodley and both are bigger money fights and everyone else is booked/he's already fought them)

Hendricks vs Magny/DHK loser

TJ vs Cruz 2 for the belt

Assuncao vs Lineker/McDonald loser (i'd say Faber, but it's a waste of a Faber fight as it won't draw and Assuncao is reasonably likely to win)

Northcutt vs Gomi (I love the idea despite seeming bad on paper and would struggle to pick a winner - for a more conventional pick Marco Polo Reyes would work for Northcutt, no idea for Gomi)

Marin vs some TUF reject on the prelims

Lauzon vs Chiesa 2 (assuming Chiesa isn't injured long term - if he is go with Felder or Kevin Lee maybe)

Sanchez vs Trujillo

Jim Miller vs Pearson

Mousasi vs Vitor Belfort

Santos vs Leites

I'll admit I've only watched the UFC tape on both fighters, not their regional stuff, so it's possible I'm missing something here with only a few fights to go off. But I like Casey a fair bit as a dog here.

Casey has lost two straight but to very good fighters, and she had very good moments against both. Clearly took the first round off Hamderlei and was very competitive in the second up until the eye poke that kind of changed the complexion of the fight.

I think she almost certainly wins the stand up battle, and she has the better gas tank. She seems very defensively sound if the fight hits the ground, and I'm not sure what Stanciu's takedown game is actually like. She pulled guard on Moroz a few times but that didn't exactly go well for her, and I'd be a bit surprised if it worked on Casey too.

As an aside I enjoyed watching strawweight tape to catch up on these two a lot more than I enjoyed some of the fights on the 200 card. Easily one of the most fun divisions in the UFC right now.

This sale good for the UFC?

That's an interesting observation, I would have to go back and look at that fight again. From what I remember Ronda did not really make any attempt to grapple her, I am sure Ronda could easily do that, especially as we saw Miesha take her down several times. I'm not sure I agree with you at the moment.

I think Nunes KO's Holly too. I don't think Holly tactical game is enough tbh, though if Nunes does not KO her then Holly wins because of cardio. Nunes is super strong in round 1, has the making of a great fight imo, as both girls possess great stand up skills, will be interesting to watch.

RR gameplan was clearly to clinch, throw, and sub HH. It may have looked like RR was trying to box just because HH was evasive. If RR was trying to box then she wouldn't have been rushing directly at her.

If RR was trying to box she would adopt a different stance and do that pawing thing to range find.

Absolutely. The boxing was just a distance closer (attempt). RR's weakness is outside of her Judo throws she has trouble getting people to the ground as I've never seen her go for a double or any wresting TD.

any of you place a bet and then immediately regret it? I did that when i bet 500 on mark hunt. Do you go with your gut and bet on the other fighter, or just ride it out?

I was just looking at this upcoming bout. Stanciu tries to bumrush the opponent with full power and overall very wild. From there on she works towards the clinch and tries to get into a scramble on the ground where she excels(only in attacking it seems tho). She transitions easy from one submission attempt to another and seems to be really dangerous in scrambles. Her gastank is weak indeed and that is probably a result of her wild/bumrushing all-in fighting style.

Casey's stand up is technical far better but she get's kinda scared/carefull when she gets hit while Stanciu's technical game sucks she punches fairly hard(she puts everything into it). Casey's clinching isn't that good either so i think stanciu will also always win in this department. If casey can move out of the way for 3 rounds Holly Holm style then she can win this. But that Romanian chick keeps coming tired or not.

Comparing Ronda being unable to get takedowns and Miesha being able to get takedowns is difficult though, because they go about getting them in two very different ways.

Rousey, as we know, is all about the judo throws for her takedowns. They require her to get to the clinch. All of her past opponents gave her that position for free by either rushing her, or standing their ground and letting Rousey rush them. She pretty much always ate a punch or two on the way in, Holm was just the first one that thought to combine hitting Rousey with moving out of the damn way :P

It was pretty clear that she didn't even have a plan B: she kept trying that same bull rush over and over again, Holm kept hitting her on the way in and then moving out of the way, the rushes got slower and slower as she gassed out, and then we got the finish that we got. Also I'm pretty sure that Holm had Rousey concussed early, and Rousey never really recovered.

Anywho if you watch it again, you'll see it's not that Ronda didn't attempt to grapple with Holm - it's that Holm simply didn't let her.

Miesha's takedown game, on the other hand, is wrestling-based. She's looking to get in on her opponents hips, or grab a leg, and she does that by setting up level changes with her striking... which has actually improved a lot since she moved to Xtreme Couture.

Miesha is a much better and more varied striker than Ronda - hell, she actually throws kicks! That was something Holm never had to worry about with Ronda. Tate is also a lot more patient and nowhere near as predictable as Rousey. Holm easily won the stand up exchanges against Tate because she's still a much better kickboxer, of course.

TLDR: there was a reason Tate was able to get a few takedowns, while Ronda couldn't. It's not because Ronda wasn't trying for them or that she wanted to "stand and bang" with Holm.

As for Nunes v Holm... eh, I don't know. My gut says I'd still take Holm against Nunes. She's worlds better at maintaining distance and fighting on the counter than Tate is.

Yeah Casey's ideal path to victory here is keeping this as an outfight - use her slightly better cardio, more precise range striking and decent counters (especially once Stanciu gets wild and sloppy). Casey is woeful at getting away when her back is against the cage or if she's taken down.

I'm just not sure Stanciu's got the skills to pressure her up to the cage, or to take her down. Like I said though I've only seen the UFC tape, which is only one fight in Stanciu's case. And in that one fight she never really attempted a takedown against Moroz, she just pulled guard a few times.

Against regional cans that's probably fine but against a UFC-calibre fighter with competent defense (which I think Casey is) that's just asking to be put on your back and lose the round.

Anyone going to touch Landon? I have to admit i'm a little intrigued given the price.

Think Ferguson lights him up on the feet and anywhere the fight goes, no value on this line anywhere imo.

Perhaps betting Ferguson wins in R1 or 2 may be the best line depending on what gets released

So far i'm liking Smolka as a small dog but not 100% sure as i'm pretty high on Ngueyn too. Smolka is younger though and should be improving more.

Werdum seems like value at -175ish too vs Rothwell but thats too far away to bet now

I usually try and find some prop to hedge with but if I have a strong enough reason i'll just hit the other side and eat the loss. I try not to impulse place bets and when I do it's usually right before a fight starts so no time to hit the other side

Yeah at first I was thinking that Stanciu might overwhelm Casey in the first round and might grind a round 2 win but I don't see it happening anymore. Casey is a solid fighter, her last two losses were versus relatively good fighters who both have lots of experience.

Stanciu is fearless, powerful and good in fast/slick attacking on the ground. But she isn't a smart fighter and her stand up just sucks. I just can't see her in a calculating/intelligently way pressing casey against the cage. She moves in straight forward and wild, she telegraphs every punch and kick she wants to throw. And you are right about the regional cans(especially in europe) who she submits lol.

I'll take casey in this one too

like the line on Smolka a lot. He has has a lot more experience on the highest level. Last year Ben Nguyen was a small dog vs a nobody now he is suddenly favorite vs a experienced, solid and smart fighter like Smolka. I don't believe it.

Smolka/Ngueyn is a coin flip. Both guys are so good I have no idea how to make a prediction. I will probably just enjoy it and not bet it...going to be a war and close AF.

second that

off topic but live money
VP,

Win
Single: Newt Gingrich @ 13/10
1 line at £395.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £395.00
Potential returns: £908.50


Total stake: £395.00
Free bets voucher: £0.00
Total Cost: £395.00

more as much as you can eat.

15/8

Total Stake: £133.00 Pot. Win: £381.71



load that free money on imo,
pence looks like death warmed up, Christie.. umm just no, typical counter balance to big loud, small and ex speaker of the house. free money imo, wish I had more available but I have been shipping high end race simulation equipment like direct drive wheels and sht and im out of cash. Can take the hit if the un thinkable happens but fox just laid him off

Soild VP for the united states, some one that can be taken seriously, tight, compact, a natural speaker, logical, photo genic, most natural vp of all time?

ship that free money.

holtzman @-303 1
noke @-200 1
Vannata @400 1


From what I could gather about Landon dude has a BJJ/wrestling background, trains at Jackson-Winklejon and footage has shown him pretty damn solid on the feet, great footwork, pace and striking defense, thus an all-around solid fighter IMO. Seems pretty confident as well. Tony thrives off applying pressure, overall aggression, can throw bombs and is also solid on the mat, personally I’m not super impressed with his standup and don’t find him that athletic as well (I’m pretty damn picky with how I define athleticism so can understand the disagreement there). Thus on the feet I could see this going either way. On the mat it’s super ambiguous but speculating wrestling/ground game won’t be a landslide for Tony here everytime. Landon is filling in on 2 weeks notice, has never fought in the UFC, is facing an extremely experienced fighter (who is a ****ing winner), and at a slight height/reach disadvantage thus the attractive price but think Ferguson @-714 is slightly over-doing it. I’m definitely not hesitant to play the scrub card but I don’t think Landon is a scrub at all.

Thin value on Holtzman @-303. I think he should be winning this matchup over 75% of the time given Pfister doesn’t have an edge anywhere in this fight.

Nguyen Smolka is a flip IMO so no bet atm, if lines move one of em into an underdog I’ll bet the underdog.

Lineker McDonald is close to a flip on the feet IMO. Haven’t gathered a ton about eithers ground game but I think McDonald’s TDD is a bit wishy-washy. His grappling is solid however. I think strategically Lineker bringing this fight to the ground would be a good idea with his heavy ground and pound. If this fight stays on the feet it could go either way but I think the lines are right given Lineker’s explosiveness and McDonald’s inability to stay off his back (even though his guard game solid).

Noke should be winning north of 67% (@-200) of the time so some thin value there. Kyle Noke should be winning a ton of the time on the feet and has solid TD, plus has only been submitted once.

Samman Boetsch I see only being close on the feet. If Samman controls the takedowns I think Boetsch will get cooked via Samman’s grappling edge. My main issue is Samman’s questionable TDD which I don’t take lightly at all. @-227 it’s a bit too close IMO.

Ufc sold -UFC owners turn $2 million into $4 billion

Fingers crossed the same high level of sports presentation is top bill of the new management team?

It's been hard to pick faults in the events that are known as UFC, just top quality we all have to just step back and give credit were it is due, UFC is really awesome, fights roll on one on top with no length breaks discernible, appericance of good security and no issues with ring / cage walk, great editing, superb lighting.




1

2

3

4, billions...

What would you guys do if some one just gave you a billion dollars?

Figuratively:

Only one spot I really like for the next card

2u Smolka +112

Money has been coming on Nguyen but just can't resist the current price on Smolka. He ran a clinic on Holohan and while neither guy has a marquee win I think Smolka has more upside he's young, well rounded and improving every fight. I think both guys are really good but I think Smolka is a solid 55% favourite here so getting him as a dog seems great

0.5u Lineker -160

Wanted a sweat on the main too and while i've been a doubter for a long time his last fight has convinced me he is legit top 15 finally and quite possibly top 10. He has had some very bad fights in the UFC but the impressive performances more recently and seems to be improving and he has hands of stone. McDonald is very good, he's a top 10 but not top 5 guy and with a long layoff followed by a fight with a semi can, he may not be ready for Lineker. Barao cracked him a few times and I think I don't love the -160 price, but I feel like Lineker gets it done here.

1u on Oleinik -187 he's getting older, but he's beaten two guys Omielaczuk (ffs how do you spell polish names) has lost to and Omiel has never really impressed me in the UFC, Oleinik should be better everywhere and feels like he should win 2 in 3 fights. It's HW so anything could happen but I think he wins often enough at this price

Also added another half unit Smolka for 2.5u total, and still have 0.5u on Lineker -160

Few other spots I don't mind but passing on them pretty happy to just have Smolka, Oleinik and Lineker as my biggest through to smallest plays respectively, good chance ill miss the card tomorrow but will at least catch the fights I have a bet on and Samman Boetsch and Ferguson vs the new guy