i saw some 10-10's in rd1 and more surprisingly a bunch more for rd2

ryan jimmo may be dead rip talk about a guy who had no luck in life

media sources starting to confirm the jimmo death

the sob deserves the murder charge he will get when they catch him

Yep.

https://twitter.com/MikeBohnMMA/stat...52575410364416

That sucks, that's 3 UFC/Bellator fighters in about a month now.

Pretty sure bellator has a 10 point must system

Joanna down to -150. I gave their 1st fight a very close SD to Gadelha but the champ's boxing has evolved so much lately. I though the -200 line was accurate, what do you guys think?

Another welterweight fight added for UFC 202 as Carlos Condit faces off against Demian Maia.

http://www.sherdog.com/news/news/Top...UFC-202-107077

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UFC_202

that is without a doubt a guaranteed title shot to the winner and im tempted to pick maia here as the heavy dog as he's exactly the kinda guy to beat condit

Wow. I'm not sure I see what there is to gain for either guy in taking that fight... both already have strong claims to being due a title shot, and it's not really the kind of style matchup where both guys can come out looking good: either Maia makes Condit look silly on the ground, or vice versa on the feet.

None of my books appear to have the fight listed yet, but I'll be all over Maia if he's a heavy dog.

Condit has ways to win the fight for sure, and I know he's no slouch on the ground, even off his back. But a Maia jiu-jitsu clinic feels like the it's probably the most likely outcome here...

I agree, Condit's TDD is his biggest weakness, if Maia can get ahold of him it's going to the ground and Condit is going to sleep or a 30-27. I don't think Condit has the one punch KO power to knock Maia out as he shoots either, obviously if Maia can't get the takedown Condit will TKO him with volume or win a 30-27 standing, but Maia has to know the spam takedowns until he either gets one or is knocked out, and I lean towards him being able to get one

In 5 rounds Condit's better cardio would be an issue, but in 3 rounds Maia can go for 3 rounds and it's going to be a one sided beatdown it's just a matter of where the fight takes place

I'll be taking Maia at evens let alone as a dog. The top of WW is all styles make fights right now - anyone who doesn't have the elite TDD gets beaten by Maia, anyone who wants to fight standing gets beaten by Wonderboy, then Condit, but guys like Woodley who can't beat anyone else in the list of contenders actually match up well with Maia due to wrestling background and slightly better striking, even though he doesn't have Maia's BJJ or any of the top guys standup. Lawler is probably third best on the feet but has better TDD than Condit and more power but less volume striking.

I think the only guy who could be a dominant champ is Wonderboy if his TDD is super elite level; Maia will lose to anyone he can't take down and beat anyone he can take down and I think Wonderboy should beat Lawler and Condit standing who in turn both beat everyone else standing - then guys like Hendricks and Woodley and Rory actually match up reasonably well with Maia due to their wrestling backgrounds, but are at a disadvantage vs the 3 best strikers in the division.

I expect Condit/Maia to open at something like -110 both sides with sharp money coming on Maia and casual money on Condit. I wouldn't be surprised to see Condit open as a fav though since he's the uncrowned champ, but this has to be the second worst type of matchup for him after a guy with elite offensive NCAA style wrestling, a chin and decent striking defense (basically, Woodley, although I think Woodley is the worst of the contenders his style matches up super well with Condit and despite the fluke injury ending he was clearly winning the fight before the finish anyway)

Maia has more BJJ style trips than offensive wrestling but it should be enough against Condit, Condit needs to use the Nick Diaz gameplan of stay at range at all costs and avoiding the clinch but given he's got a decent offense from the clinch I don't think he'll take real measures to avoid it and will eventually get tripped and when he's on the ground he won't stand a chance

Maia can also use the Werdum pull guard strategy and Condit is probably too aggressive to just walk away and let him stand up, Maia can probably sweep him on the ground despite Condit's well above average BJJ but I expect it will be Condit tags Maia a bit at range then is eventually taken down and either held down for two rounds or choked out.

Lawler has a VERY rough year ahead of him as champ and is probably less likely than any other champ other than maybe Bisping to hold the title a year from today (Bisping could hold the title if he defends vs Hendo and one other defense potentially, but he's a dog to everyone not Hendo although I personally think he matches up well with Jacare too despite nearly nobody else agreeing with me - he's drawing very thin vs Weidman though and is still a dog to Rockhold in a rubber match). I'd like to see Lawler retain against Woodley then I expect Wonderboy to take the title from him and defend against the Condit/Maia winner. I'm a huge fan of Maia but I also want to see Wonderboy vs Condit more than any other fight at WW except maybe Wonderboy vs Lawler, as fans we should get to see both of those fights while both fighters are in their primes.

202 is shaping up to be a fantastic card, I don't think it will outsell 200, but anything is possible. There are at least 6 main card caliber fights so far (Conor vs Nate, Rumble vs Glover, Condit vs Maia, Story vs Cerrone, Magny vs DHK and Garbrandt vs Mizugaki) and then Pennington, Lim, Alves and Iaquinta on the card as relevant fighters as well and there should still be 2-3 more fights added before it's done.

^^^fantastic breakdown of the WW division.

+1

Thank you Swoop for your valuable contributions to this thread over the years.

I agree that Condit-Maia is going to go one way or the other and my feeling is Maia will get the TD as Condit is truly terrible at stopping it. (one of the worst in the WW division). Condit does have good footwork and uses movement well so it's possible Maia doesn't get the right angle for good penetration for the TD and Condit can spin out.
Even if Maia doesn't get the TD and he gets lit up on the feet (he should but not with fight ending punches as Condit can't risk planting his weight behind them) Maia can also get top position by jumping guard. Not many WW's if any have the confidence in their guard to get the sweep like Maia has.

It's a shame that one guy has to lose as both are worthy of a TS and with Maia's age and Condit talking about retirement I think there's a good chance only one will ever get it despite both being very worthy.

Bold of you.

Kidding.

Think he meant more like, either Condit smashes Maia or Maia smashes Condit.

Well put, welterweight at the moment is a one style beats the other and pretty much all top 5 fighters are experts in one style (except for Rory who is above average striker / ground fighter, but not expert like someone like Thompson is, although one can then even go further and say standup style vs standup style, but let keep it basic).

WW has always been the best division imo. Totally stacked.

Yeah I'd def take Maia at evens or even as a small fave I think.

You make very good points, just a couple of thoughts to add: in addition to his trips, I recall Maia demonstrating some super-effective single-leg takedowns in his past few fights - sticking to them through second/third efforts, turning the corner to finish them, etc. Brutally effective.

Also Condit has a habit of throwing out striking combos that leave him in awkward positions / needing a few seconds to reset when they miss... which happens a bit, because he likes to spam stuff so he can see what works. A guy like Lawler who only wanted to strike with him didn't really capitalise on that, but I can easily see Maia taking that chance to get the takedown.

So yeah I like Maia a LOT in this fight... to the point where like I said earlier, I'm not sure I see why Condit even agreed to the match. Recently he's been talking on and off about the long-term damage he's taken over his career, I wonder if he took it on the basis that even if he loses, he's not as likely to get hit in the head as much as he would be against pretty much anyone else in the division? Getting pwned on the mat for three rounds would do less damage physically than even winning a stand-up fight might.

Yeah assuming you're willing to tap as soon as you're caught in a sub with no way out you're basically at no risk of taking long term damage against Maia. If I had to fight a top WW i'd certainly pick Maia then just get taken down and subbed quickly

If Condit's going to risk a war it should be for the belt vs the Wonderboy/Lawler or Woodley winner, and he'll earn a title shot here if he beats Maia. That said it's not the best matchup for him stylistically at all, although if he can work on being evasive and counterstriking he could easily beat Maia at range the way he beat Diaz if Maia can't get takedowns at will and assuming Lawler vs Woodley happens and Wonderboy is the #1 contender right now which he is, the Condit/Maia winner will clearly be the next #1 contender after that

Yep I def see the winner of this fight as the one that gets the next title shot after Wonderboy... I just don't think it's a smart fight for Condit to take (on any grounds other than minimising the risk of physical damage)

I suppose the biggest x-factor in Condit's favour is his coaching - AFAIK Maia hasn't ever fought a Jackson-Winklejohn fighter before? Maia obviously isn't unbeatable, and I wouldn't put it past the same guys that devised the plan to keep Holly Holm standing against Rousey to come up with a similar plan against Maia. I just don't know if Condit has the same raw tools to work with that Holm did, plus Maia is a much trickier challenge than Rousey was. It'll need to be something a bit more nuanced than "LOL circle away from the bull rush" methinks :P

Joanna down to -140

This is shocking tbh. Since their 1st fight Joanna proved to have improved TDD. Really a big line jump yet no news (injury report etc.) to justify it.

We saw Anderson basically roflclown Maia and he had TDD issues too. I don't want to find and rewatch that assfest but it's definitely a doable strategy even by a fighter with iffy TDD.

cb dolloway to 205 to face barroso
sounding more and more like hendo vs bisping 2 is a done deal

After checking into this card a bit, I see Burrow is up at welterweight for this bout for some reason while Krantz is a very skilled and dangerous opponent. Small on Byrd as a favorite as well after Wiki capping and I'm putting a full unit in the undefeated Alpha Male prospect Kelly in the main event as a small dog despite missing the much better opening line.

Legacy FC 57 Risk $385.00

Tony Kelley (+120) vs Kevin Aguilar $100.00 for $120.00
Derrick Krantz (-190) vs Dave Burrow $190.00 for $100.00
Charles Byrd (-190) vs Quentin Henry $95.00 for $50.00