You realise he got submitted in r3 right so in a 5 round fight the outcome was the same...

I get your point that 5 round fights favour Brown but in a 'fight to the finish' I take Maia over Brown any time. Yes, Maia will gas first but he's 50%+ to submit Brown before he does imo

Hopefully he beats Ellenberger. Ellenberger can wrestle, but doesn't use it well in an MMA context so Brown should have an edge probably. Matt Brown's antics away from the octagon are making it hard to keep liking him though despite his exciting fights after he won me over as a fan

Brown said he took a gamble to try to get out because he would not have won a decision anyway. In a 5 rounder he would have keep defending like he did for 14 minuts.

Fair enough, but Brown needed Maia to gas quickly and find a finish being down 3 rounds.

I'd snap take Maia in a 5 rounder over Brown despite the cardio disadvantage

That's really cheap of him to say that after getting submitted, even if it's true he should not say anything to take away from Maia's victory. It is rare these days to see a top 10/15 totally outclassed on the ground. Maia brought us back to the 2 digit UFC events and justified that -400 line.

When Brown did the same to Wonderboy no tears were shed, just more work put on.

I don't like people to complain or make excuses after a fight either. But I think it is the truth as he was in that exact position for at least 10 minutes of that fight and never was caught. Odds are he knew the clock was about to run out and took a gamble for a chance to win and was willing to be subbed as opposed to losing by decision. tbh I wish more fighters took this approach as too many are content to take less damage and lose by decision.

If there was no time limit in the fight Brown would win way over 50% of the time... as he proved he could prevent the choke and Maia would fade first. 5 rounds may or may not be enough time. (Counter argument is Maia would have pushed harder for the sub if there was no time limit as he knows that he'd get tired first).

Regardless I'm really happy for Maia as he seems like a class act outside of the octagon and I think he's the only Brazilian that didn't juice. He deserves a Title shot soon as he's not getting any younger.

Remove the gloves and introduce no-time limit we would for sure see a lot different outcomes.

For sure, but the sport would be worse for it. No gloves would make fighters much less inclined to punch and no time limits would invite horrible snooze-fests where nobody did anything for 10+ minutes at a time. Nobody wants to see Shamrock-Severn or Shamrock-Gracie II from the bad old days again.

Of course/I'm a Matt Brown nut-hugger.


An interesting discussion for some of the guys itt would be take a top 15 type opponent and "manage-map" his road to getting a belt. For example there could be a fighter who is ranked 12th that has a good shot against the champion but would likely lose to the fighters ranked 8th, 5th, 4th and 2nd. The key to getting there is dodging the minefields and making it a 5 rounder or 3 rounder depending on what suits your interests.

5dimes has Alberto Pereira by sub +1750 Don't have money there but that seems absurdly good

Don't ask me who thought was a good line to set but I put a hundred bucks on it at +1780.

Agreed Bros. Damn I gotta get me some funds on 5d

Count me in too, 0.55u Periera sub +1680

Seems way off in a coinflip fight likely to end in a finish in a fight where about half his wins are by sub and 1/3 of his opponents losses are by sub

Actually, Matt Brown would be worse for it if they did no gloves as he wouldn't be able to punch as much considering it's really easy to break your hand if you punch wrong.
Add on top of that that the gloves take away the grappling ability because it's harder to grip and has a weird feeling to it compared to no gloves. We would be seeing a lot more submissions by the top bjj guys.

Also, remember Matt lost to 2 of the former champions in 1 3 round and 1 5 round fight, both Robbie and Lawler beat him. I just think there's no way Matt Brown is winning gold because he isn't a well rounded fighter. Both Hendricks and Lawler out-mmaed him and I think a bunch of other top 10 fighters can do that to him. I guess, his best path would be something like he faces Carlos Condit and wins that one, then faces Thompson or Woodley in a 5 rounder and then a title shot. Even Woodley though I think can take him down and not waste too much energy holding him down. But Woodley I actually think if he can't get it done in 3 rounds will get TKO'd later on.

Brown's best path to a title shot would be through Woodley imo. Woodley is the worst of the top 6-7 guys at WW unless Hendricks is shot post USADA (he's def declined since then and he always had 'that' type of physique). He's also live vs Wonderboy as he beat him but would be a substantial dog in a rematch imo as Wonderboy has improved more of the two of them since and should be able to keep it standing long enough/not gas due to pressure etc

I think Brown will be a top 15 fighter for the remainder of his prime, I just don't think he's top 5 and don't think he can get there unless he suddenly becomes an amazing defensive wrestler and even then i'm not convinced he beats Condit/Lawler/Wonderboy and maybe Rory in the standup although I think he beats the rest of the top 10 on the feet, the problem is most of the rest of the top 10 have good offensive takedowns (Woodley, Maia, Hendricks and also Rory) and will use that gameplan

He can certainly make a career of winning FOTN performances and finishing 15-30 ranked guys though and there's nothing wrong with that.

I'd quite like to see him against Magny if they want to throw him to the wolves some more, but I think he should get another 'easy' rebuilding fight. I guess if he beats Ellenberger he gets someone like Magny or the Story/Saffiedine winner or Cerrone, if not then give him another step down vs someone like Taleb or Barbarena

All base units (to win 1u on favs, risk 1u dogs etc). Pretty sure this will do me for the card.

1u Almeida -166

1.5u Barao -160
0.4u Barao DEC +213
0.27u Stephens ITD +348

1u Story +115

1.3u Camozzi +157
0.55u Camozzi +3.5 pts -145

1u Masvidal +110

0.2u Felder SUB +562

1u Eye (scorecards no action) +152
0.4u Eye +135
0.14u Eye TKO +885 (wish I had more here and SNA)
0.2u Eye SUB +1545

0.55u Uda Periera SUB +1680
0.5u Uda Periera +110
0.27u Uda Periera ITD +240
0.27u Collier DEC +335

0.5u Caraway +330
0.2u Caraway ITD +660

0.07u Parlay Barao DEC + Camozzi DEC + Eye ITD + Caraway SUB +36800
0.07u Parlay Barao DEC + Camozzi DEC + Eye ITD +4820

Got a bit over 13u in play in total across the card.

Some thoughts

Expected Sterling to have more of a size advantage over Caraway. Larkin's size advantage right about where I expected but it looks like he's probably lost a lot of power at WW and I like Masvidal to me the more active (well, less inactive) of the fighters. I think Larkin is slightly more likely to finish but fight usually goes the distance and I prefer Masvidal for the decision
I'd have bet the Masvidal/Larkin goes the distance prop if the price was a little better

In hindsight despite beating current line I probably wouldn't have played Barao ML, I think I would have made the dec prop my main play there.

Should have trusted gut and put more on Camozzi when he was +170, I diluted my price a bit adding on when the steam started. He did look the better of the two at weigh ins and has a size advantage.

Eye's legs look lethal if she can connect with a kick. I think she rocks McMann if she lands any flush kick or punch and will probably finish if she does, if not then she'll lose a decision on her back most of the time. Not a huge fan of the Eye ML play, more an emotional hedge to lose less if she wins a decision, but I don't like it EV wise. I would have put more on the TKO line but I expected McMann to steam and that was the first Eye line I hit. It's come in piles now. I hit the SUB line as an EV play but I think the EV is better on TKO at the price I got just not current price. Very happy with decision no bet as it crushes current line.

I forgot I had the Periera ITD bet, probably wouldn't have added the Periera straight up bet if I had remembered. I should have taken Collier DEC + Periera ITD/SUB combination I think.

For the other fights I don't have a bet on, I figure Trujillo r1 TKO is most likely followed by Rinaldi sub/lnp, Campbell TKO maybe (I originally liked Koch but Campbell looked better at weigh ins imo plus Jim said he had better striking so makes sense) and Milstead TKO (Delarocha looks like a non-athlete in his movement but not laying that vig on no-name HWs)

Lots of high variance plays on this card compared to usual for me did quite a lot of props.

Ok the Camozzi steam is getting pretty nuts so I added another 0.2u or so on the TKO prop at an average of about +900. I think he wins by decision but who knows maybe there's something wrong with Miranda and could lead to a stoppage

Uda sub play at +1780 was cancelled as a clear line error.

UFN 88 Risk $3769.04

Thomas Almeida (-150) vs Cody Garbrandt $150.00 for $100.00
Thomas Almeida wins in round 2 (+525) $20.00 for $105.00
Thomas Almeida wins by TKO/KO (+125) $100.00 for $125.00

Jeremy Stephens (+140) vs Renan Barao $150.00 for $210.00
Jeremy Stephens (+165) vs Renan Barao $100.00 for $165.00
Jeremy Stephens +3½ points (-155) $155.00 for $100.00
Jeremy Stephens wins by TKO/KO (+385) $100.00 for $385.00

Rick Story (+110) vs Tarec Saffiedine $0.00 for $10.00

Chris Camozzi (+195) vs Vitor Miranda $100.00 for $195.00
Chris Camozzi wins by TKO/KO (+1385) $20.00 for $277.00
Chris Camozzi wins in round 3 (+2725) $20.00 for $545.00
Chris Camozzi wins by 3 round decision (+260) $75.00 for $195.00

Lorenz Larkin (-135) vs Jorge Masvidal $270.00 for $200.00
Lorenz Larkin scorecards = no action (-147) $147.00 for $100.00
Lorenz Larkin wins by 3 round decision (+150) $75.00 for $112.50

Josh Burkman (+260) vs Paul Felder $75.00 for $195.00
Josh Burkman wins inside distance (+525) $25.00 for $131.25

Jessica Eye (+135) vs Sara McMann $100.00 for $135.00
Jessica Eye wins by TKO/KO (+855) $20.00 for $171.00
Jessica Eye scorecards = no action (+165) $100.00 for $165.00
Jessica Eye wins by 3 round decision (+302) $35.00 for $105.70

Abel Trujillo wins in round 1 (+170) $30.00 for $51.00
Abel Trujillo/Jordan Rinaldi Under 1½ (+120) $100.00 for $120.00
Jordan Rinaldi (+260) vs Abel Trujillo $150.00 for $390.00

Jake Collier (+105) vs Alberto Pereira Uda $100.00 for $105.00
Alberto Pereira Uda wins inside distance (+242) $35.00 for $84.70

Shane Campbell (-160) vs Erik Koch $160.00 for $100.00
Erik Koch wins by 3 round decision (+428) $25.00 for $107.00

Bryan Caraway (+350) vs Aljamain Sterling $100.00 for $350.00
Bryan Caraway +3½ points (+165) $100.00 for $165.00
Bryan Caraway wins by 3 round decision (+755) $100.00 for $755.00

Adam Milstead wins in round 1 (+115) vs Chris De La Rocha $35.00 for $40.25

Fights to end in KO/TKO over 4½ (-104)$41.60 for $40.00
Fights to end in KO/TKO over 5½ (+267) $25.00 for $66.75
Fights to end in KO/TKO over 6½ (+712) $15.00 for $106.80
Fights to end in KO/TKO over 7½ (+2278) $10.00 for $227.80
Fights to end in KO/TKO over 8½ (+9100)$5.00 for $455.00

Fights to end in submission under 1½ (+101) $25.00 for $25.25
No fights end in submission (+463) $10.00 for $46.30

Bryan Caraway/Aljamain Sterling FOTN award winner (+700) $10.00 for $70.00

Parlay:
Jessica Eye/Sara McMann Over 2½ (-250) + Thomas Almeida/Cody Garbrandt won’t start round 4 (-183) $100.00 for $116.50

Not Sara McMann inside distance (-426) + Josh Burkman/Paul Felder starts round 3 (-253) $138.35 for $100.00

Not Aljamain Sterling inside distance (-264) + Abel Trujillo/Jordan Rinaldi won’t go 3 round distance (-195) $92.09 for $100.00

Round Robin- 21 two-team parlays of $25.00 each or $525.00 for $1102.96:
Bryan Caraway/Aljamain Sterling Over 2½ (-190) + Shane Campbell (-165) + Jake Collier (+105) + Lorenz Larkin (-120) + Chris Camozzi/Vitor Miranda Over 2½ (-165) + Tarec Saffiedine (+105) + Jeremy Stephens/Renan Barao starts round 3 (-150)

Good luck bros tonight , that Pereira SUB line got bombarded all the way to +600 so great job on you 2 for catching it at around +1700

Enjoy the fights all No more bets for me.

Uda sub line got cancelled as a "clear line error", Nick.

Added: Bryan Caraway wins in round 3 (+1800) $10.00 for $180.00

If you're going "wtf" at the 29-28 Sterling, remember that it's Adelaide Byrd, and there was a black fighter vs. a white one.

note to self *MUST FOLLOW ALL JIM'S PICKS!

Nice pick on Caraway Jim, I didn't listen!

man those spinning back kicks

first one landed and I was like woah. announcer didn't comment. some Joe Rogan teachin' gsp ****.

so sick

that spinning backfist in the first while he was wounded was crazy tight too

Thomas Almeida 4/7 stake £75.00 possible returns. £117.86


looked at Renan Barão vs. Jeremy Stephens but could not bring self to bet stephens but I agree with a small play there being reasonable, fighters moving up a weight as I am learning... it matters, but Barão is no joke, look what it took to beat him, one of the best performances of all time.

Oh well, Uda was my "lock" of the night so that's that

I can't believe my night is in the hands of The Monsoon and Horror. Oh boy ... At least this will be exciting

Jessica Eye doing nothing.