Prediction: Story wins in r1 via neck crank...lol

I am betting Story cuz thats where the value is especially with Tarec being injured but I really like Saff and I hope he wins somehow. He has had a tough go so far and needs a break.

I have a lot of bets so far but I'm against you guys on Barao. I like Stephens as a dog and Stephens KO. Also Camozzi as a dog and some props there. I'm pretty big on Story as well, although not super confident any more since it turns out that Tarec's injury is more superficial while Story's neck may be in much worse condition. Also Lemonzest, how can you root against your own bet? Tarec has won me a lot of money in the past, but money over fandom I always say!

I couldn't pull the trigger on Barao at -165 , cannot do it at -195 (current line).

Just too many unknowns, not sure where his mindset is after a few loses and a move to a new heavier division.

rivera vs perez seems like a moneymaker

I was actually considering Camozzi as a dog as well but hadn't pulled the trigger. If it gets to +200 I think I will but not quite confident enough at +180

If Barao keeps steaming and Stephens gets to +200 or better i'll probably just take the guaranteed profit, I liked him at -160 but not sure I do at -200 or better. See where it ends up I guess. Weigh in sizes matter a bit too.

Bit of Masvidal steam but I just can't pull the trigger there until I see the weigh in. I know i'm going to have a bet on that fight and it's going to come down to how big Larkin's size advantage is. If they look at all similar in size i'm betting Masvidal but if Larkin has a medium to large size advantage i'll probably take Larkin

Rivera should win if he doesn't fight like an idiot but after his 'gameplan' against Lineker I can't bet on him with that fight IQ unless it's amazing value. That was disgraceful and embarrassing, yes, it was fun and entertaining but I mean when you have that kind of size/reach advantage and your gameplan is 'get in close and trade in the pocket with a power puncher' it's hard to trust that fighter's gameplanning abilities in the future. It's be like if Daniel Cormier decided to 'stand and trade' with Rumble or Chael Sonnen decided his gameplan would be to strike with Anderson Silva, or if Cyborg decided that her best plan to beat Ronda was 'spam takedown attempts and throw no strikes'

Caceres in for Penn to face Cole Miller. I think i'll take the dog and expect it to be Caceres on short notice. If he's +150 or better I might give it a shot. Miller should probably be a small fav I guess. Both guys are fun to watch though and tall and lanky so it'll be interesting

Miocic vs Overeem announced to headline 203, I like it. Could go either way, I think Reem has the better offense, but Miocic has a much better chin.

I may even play Reem (ever time I bet him he loses though) if he's a big enough dog, if it's close to evens i'll probably take Miocic to fade Reem's chin. . Reem by decision could be worth a bet if it's +1000 or something.

Lot of interesting matchups possible at HW now.

I like Stephens at +165. In Barao's last two fights he looks like he has really slowed down a lot and coming off PEDs that explosiveness that won him most of his fights doesn't seem to be there any more.

I haven't had a chance to rewatch tape but I'm inclined to agree - plus there's the thing that Barao was never actually the monstrous world-beater that he was made out to be in the first place.

He and his camp don't seem to be all that good at adapting and game planning either. That couldn't have been much clearer than it was in the second Dillashaw fight, when they decided that all he needed to do was work EVEN MORE HARDERER LOL doing the same stuff as before in the gym instead of, y'know, acknowledging that he needed a whole different game plan to stop him from getting his ass kicked even worse than he did the first time.

Barao struggles with guys who have amazing movement but Stephens doesn't move like Cruz and TJ. Will be interesting to see what he looks like at 145, he was huge for 135 but less weight cut may mean better cardio. I think a lot depends whether he was on PEDs or not (he never failed a test afaik but any fighter especially Brazilian in decline seems to be auto suspicious recently)

Barao is only 29 so it's not like he's old, he was very young when he beat Faber twice, Mcdonald, Pickett, Wineland etc.

Stephens seems to be hit and miss. It's easy to forget he's 4-6 in his last 10 due to his impressive performances against Pettis, Elkins, Jason and Bermudez and granted 5 of those 6 losses are to top 10 fighters

I mean he did beat RDA but RDA was a totally different fighter at UFC 91 than he is today, RDA lost to Tyson Griffin the fight after etc.

I have no idea what's going to happen in the fight, i'm just taking 'Barao beats guys that can't move like TJ/Cruz' as the basic analysis obviously there's a lot more to it but Stephens has lost 11 times in the UFC, he's faced good competition and lost to mostly elite guys but he's arguably 8-11 vs guys who were top 30ish at the time of the fight or better and that's being quite generous counting guys like Cole Miller and Marcus Davis in the win column. The Bermudez performance was good but competitive and Barao has a much better chin than Bermudez.

Barao may not be the p4p king people made him out to be but he was at worst the #4 BW proven by beating Faber twice and a few top 10 guys, only guys you could rank with/above him are Assuncao, Cruz and TJ and Assuncao is a big question mark since his best wins are a bad decision over TJ who wasn't as good as he is now and Caraway who is top 15 but not top 5. If he's just as good at FW as he is at BW he should at least be top 10.

I really don't know what to make of it all but at least the -160 I got is beating the current market price if I decide to change my mind after weigh ins or anything.

Little bit of money on Almeida today kind of makes me wish i'd taken the -150 but not sure I like it at -165ish. I guess I keep waiting on that one. Might get some Garbrandt decision if it gets back towards +1000 maybe but it's come in from there so idk

Now with the mention of Roids (which Barao was on with near certainty) I'm more inclined to go with Stevenson given the new odds. Will wait until weigh ins.

Rick Story now -125 , you guys making me look like a genius catching that line at +110

Wish I had more than 0.3 units but very happy with my bet.

Added 0.25u each on Caraway +350 and Caraway ITD +660 (was going to bet sub but it was +650, lol, i'll take the free tko/dq chance i guess)

Also added 0.35u Camozzi +170

Reem/Miocic opens at Miocic -170 Reem +140 right about where I think it should be, I was thinking i'd bet Reem at +160 or better and Miocic at -130 or better so I guess i'll just wait and see where the line moves to and keep an eye on the Reem decision and Stipe wins in r1 lines in case there's value in either.

Injury news spreading I guess. I'm happy with 1u on it, in theory should have gone a couple probably but Story is inconsistent and if Saff is cleared to fight while he's not 100% he's at least healthy enough to fight.

I capped it at about evens prior to the injury news though, so very happy with Story +115 considering the injury.

I'll probably end up with a play on the main event. I love watching Trujillo lose but think he prob wins here so will stay away from that and just cheer against him. Maybe fight goes the distance in the main? Both guys can finish but are also facing their biggest challenge ever, if Almeida doesn't catch him in the first couple rounds I could see it going the distance and +350 is pretty tempting for a lower weight class given it could easily be a back and forth competitive fight. I'll prob get a Masvidal or Larkin play after weigh in too depending on size difference. I kind of want to bet Masvidal but he needs to be close in size for me to pull the trigger it can't look like Bendo/Thatch and i'm worried it might, it's one of those fights where I feel like I just need to see them standing next to each other and then i'll know who wins

Also Matt Brown finally catches a break and draws Jake Ellenberger in his next fight, while Ellenberger's a wrestler i'm not sure he can LnP Brown as he seems to be on the decline and Brown should be a small fav here and Ellenberger is still a name even though he's lost 5 of his last 6. I don't think he gets cut with a loss to Brown quite, but he's in danger of being cut for sure. Brown is exciting enough that even if he loses he gets at least one more fight vs a lower level guy he should beat because win or lose, Brown fights are exciting, Ellenberger can't really say that (although it was fun watching him get schooled with spinning stuff by Wonderboy and he does have a good KO vs Shields even if it's old)

I'm an action junkie who hates skipping betting fights. But with all the injury reports on both sides and long layoffs for both I actually bought out of all my Story action. Just left with a small freeroll on Story of $0.00 to win $10.00.

I can see the reports of a broken ankle + the surgery for his arm/shoulder issues but both seem taken care of did he suffer a new injury or just unknowns due to the previous one? In the interview I read he said he's physically and mentally in a good place

Who do you like in Perieia/Collier Jim? Having a tough time capping that one mostly due to lack of watching tape on Periera. I'm leaning Periera, his last win vs Bodao is still a solid win despite Bodao's 3 fight losing streak he was competitive vs Akhmedov and beat Trinaldo on TUF Brazil and a 9-0 guy with that as his most recent win is tempting given Collier's best win is Abreu. I read a few articles all seeming to predict that Collier will walk into a big shot and get knocked out so i'm considering firing there

I'm probably going to end up with an action bet on every fight but want to make as many +EV larger bets as I can while I still have time for analysis.

I'm on Collier as a slight dog for 1u. This is Uda's first time fighting out of Brazil if I am not mistaken and his technique leaves something to be desired. This is surely one could go either way, but I picked a side here and bet it.

Fair enough. I'm staying away for now then.

Reem over Miocic all day... Get the cannons at the ready, I will be firing it all on big A!

So glad Matt Brown is getting a good matchup for a change. He needs to fight standup guys in 3 rounds and if he's fighting a LNP/Wetblanket type fighter he needs it to be a 5 rounder. But with recent losses it's tough to get booked as a Main Eventer. His management team sucks and he should be padding his record with standup KO's that look great to justify being a main eventer and use the 5 round fights to contend with the Maia's/Hendriks' of the division.

I think he would have beaten Maia in a 5 round fight. The TD's were getting harder for Maia each round and 5 minutes without a TD would have likely been the end for him.

He's a bit pricey for coming off a loss to Peter Graham at the Road to Wembley show in London a few months ago, but back in Poland again today I'm pretty certain Pudz will stop Rozalski who just isn't that good of a fighter, probably in round 1. Love the KSW production values.

KSW 35 Risk $280.00
Mariusz Pudzianowski (-280) vs Marcin Rozalski $280.00 for $100.00

Barao was extremely overrated because of a few big name wins but he was losing cleanly to wineland when he caught him and wineland looked terrible after that

how does he win a 5 rd fight if he's already subbed

Man do I feel square. Pudz gets choked out by Polish kickboxer Marcin Rozalski during a takedown attempt in round 2 in the co-main event of the KSW 35 card.

sounds like top notch fade material going forward