IMO she'll have to get takedowns and win through top control / GNP. I just don't know if that's something she'll be able to do...

Tate is someone who I've struggled to handicap recently, because I think she's one of those rare beasts: a 'veteran' who's actually improved significantly. I think she's a better fighter now than she was losing to Kaufman and Zingano. The trouble is it's her striking and general awareness in the stand-up that has improved, and I don't think that's gonna be enough to get her the win against Holm.

She's giving up the reach advantage to Holm, Holm is easily the better ring technician and she has far, far superior coaching too. She showed in the Ronda fight that you can't just bull rush her, you'd have to set up your takedowns much better.

I can't write Tate off completely, and I'm trying not to fall into the trap of only thinking about Holm in the Rousey fight - she looked solid but not invincible in her UFC matches before that. But I think Holm cruises to a decision win or maybe a knockout most of the time.

Conor's boxing may or may not be overrated (I don't think it is, but mileage may vary). But at risk of stating the obvious, this isn't a straight boxing match and Diaz has to be hugely worried about the kicks from Conor, not just his hands. Diaz may or may not be able to keep Conor outside at punching range, but kicking range presents problems for him.

Tate is more of a grinder than Rousey; she has plenty of heart and will take some shots to set up takedowns and people forget Rousey nearly tapped Holm from a bad position on the ground without setting it up; if Tate gets on top of her with 3-4 minutes left in any round she's double digits to submit her each time that happens

Don't get me wrong I expect Holm to win; but if they fought 4 times I think Tate wins one of them and potentially two more often than zero so at +3xx or thereabouts I think thats fine. I think i'd take Holm at -220 or so, if I have to set a line not knowing the market and take either side i'd go with something like +/-250

Looks like Conor -290 was a good bet to lock in given he's up towards -400 now. I really think he matches up great with Nate, Nate has no offensive wrestling and while he has good BJJ, if anyone gets a takedown it will probably be Conor. On the feet i'm not betting against Conor's striking against anyone at this point. Nate has good boxing but Conor's more well rounded with his striking

True - "take some strikes to set up takedowns" was Rousey's plan too though and we saw how that worked out. I suspect what Tate will need to do is throw some strikes effectively to set up takedowns, and then hope that Holm can't defend them all.

Agree if Tate gets on top with plenty of time on the clock in a round she'll be looking good, it's just a question of getting there. Tate wins the match somewhere between 1/4 or 1/5 times feels right to me.

I prob won't bet it at current odds, but like I said earlier I've sucked at handicapping recent Tate fights. Hell I took Jessica Eye against her and I loved that bet before the fight actually happened...

I liked the value on Miesha Tate wins by 5 round decision weeks ago when I hit it at the peak of +670. I put $50 on that. I'm probably waiting until it gets closer to commit to more bets on this fight.

Miesha's gameplan to victory is 3 rounds of enough top control to win a decision, or submission. Sure, a Holm dec or KO is more likely but I think she's very live for a substantial dog. Rousey made her look bad, because Rousey matches up well with Tate. People are acting like Rousey gave it her best possible performance vs Holm, that isn't even close to being the case. She came in with a horrible gameplan, a bunch of distractions and a lack of fitness buying her own invincible hype.

I just don't see how Nate could beat Conor, I feel like Conor knows the gravy train only lasts until he loses, so he'll do what it takes to win. It's not like Nate is known for 1-shot KOs (he did crush Maynard but Maynard's chin is/was gone) and Conor will probably outbox him. If he can't he'll take him down and GnP/avoid submission attempts.

I think Conor is most likely to lose via fluke sub from the bottom of anything vs Nate but I just don't see it. The UFC is protecting Conor hard and I expect us to see out of camp and can't make 155 Diaz as opposed to beats up contenders Diaz.

AT the end of the day, unless we count Cerrone as top 5 Nate has zero wins vs top 5 opponents and is 0-3 against guys who were top 5 when they fought (from memory at least) in Bendo, Rory and RDA. Granted they all have better wrestling than Conor, but Conor arguably has better striking than any of them and better wrestling than Nate still. They're making this fight so that the Conor hype train continues. Yes, he's being protected match making wise, but he's still passed every test with flying colours so far. It will still be an impressive win for Conor given Nate's size advantage, but it means absolutely nothing compared to beating RDA or Edgar if the goal is proving Conor is the p4p king.

If Conor defends at FW against Edgar and Aldo, wins the LW crown against RDA and defends it once and takes the WW crown from whoever of the current top 6-7 holds the belt at the time, then he's definitely made the case for GOAT. I assume he will probably want to avenge the Duffy loss from a legacy perspective at some point even though it's clear current Conor should beat current Duffy convincingly as well. If Duffy had beaten Poirier that would have been the fight to make but you can't give him the Conor fight coming off a loss to a guy Conor beat.

I'm aware boxing is just one small part of the game and I agree Connor will most likely win, I was looking for reasons for Nate to be a live dog. I referenced the Cowboy fight because on paper Cowboy had the more well rounded mma game and kickboxing game but Nate was able to neutralize that with a constant boxing jab.

This is assuming they cancel each other out on the ground. And that depends on where you weigh Conor's wrestling/GnP vs Nate's size advantage/Bjj.

Nate didn't neutralize that as much as Cerrone went into a boxing match. He kicked his legs 1-2 times easily and buckled nate (and I don't remember him getting a punch in return for it). He put Nate on his ass and didn't follow up and elected to stand and bang instead. Clear as a blue sky that Cerrone gave that fight away. If Conor does the same, he's probably going to lose since that's where nate excells. But if he sticks and moves, implements a MMA gameplan instead of only boxing, he will surely win.

The question is this: do you want to see something hilarious or don't you?

Never in my life have I started convulsively laughing as much as in that fight. I take MMA very seriously, but there is room for both real and pro wrestling-esque stuff. Bellator's freak fights are hit or miss, and the Kimbo fight was a hit imo. Ken pussing out in the Gracie fight was FAR worse.

Disagree on the McGregor fight. First, there is no way Conor is taking Nate down. He is good, but will be in a fair degree of danger there against a slick lanky guy, certainly moreso than on the feet. Also he will have far less chance of finishing than if it's on the feet.

As far as boxing, I expect Conor to outstrike him for more of less the same reasoning as you. But there is still enough uncertainty to bet Nate, as this will be a new test for Conor in terms of both size and boxing ability. I know that my entire gameplan goes out the window against lankier guys. I also believe it hurts him that Nate is a southpaw because the right will then become more important. Also if it were an opposite stance matchup I would be more concerned about Diaz getting Thomson'd (though I still am pretty scared of that).

Just took this at +500. I missed the boat on the better price. I really see decision as Tate's only path to victory.

The Don - what odds will you give me on 'Conor lands a takedown in the fight' (obviously odds here need to be higher as fight ends in r1 a lot)

or preferably, 'Conor lands a takedown if the fight lasts more than 3 rounds' or if the fight goes the distance' - feel free to set a line for all 3 if you want and I might take a sidebet with you if you want

Takedown as counted by whatever fightmetric counts as a takedown

I'll just offer the middle one... I'll give you +160 in a fight that goes 3 rounds.

Ok ill take it for 20-50 bucks if you want it fight must go min 3 rounds, conor lands at least one takedown gl just reply booked and it is. If fight ends inside 3 rounds it's a push. Takedown can occur in any round.

Ok booked... my 80 for your 50.

ok gl. decent chance it ends in a push if it goes under 3 rounds but will be a fun sweat

I can't believe Anderson Silva is fighting this weekend and I barely care at all when he used to be my favourite fighter... sigh how the mighty have fallen due to 'thai herbal viagra' or whatever he claimed the steroids were

I kinda like Pickett +155 it seems like he really wants it and Rivera fought like an idiot against Lineker, although he did well vs Faber, Pickett did well against Almeida until he got caught too.

As ridiculous as it sounds Bisping ITD is kinda tempting at +945 in case Anderson's chin is totally shot post-juicing and Weidman KO although Diaz didnt finish him. That said, Diaz is a WW and Anderson's getting older and coming off another layoff and probably steroids. If this fight happened 3 years ago Anderson would have been -1500, weird that I can't seem t find value anywhere now.

Parke sub +1950 vs Khabilov maybe? I expect Khabilov to win but hes nowhere near as good as I thought he was and while a decision snoozefest is likely, Parecould get a guillotine or a RNC if he gets the back in a scramble


On the next card i'm already on Conor -290, then smaller on Tate, looking around...

Could get value on Latifi KO vs Villante maybe depending on line?

Miller vs Sanchez maybe if line is reasonable, Sanchez is further past his prime of the two and has no idea what a gameplan is. Sad these guys are on fight pass no idea why when

Erick Silva wins in r1 vs Taleb plus Taleb decision hedge maybe? Post USADA Silva seems to suck but he's lost to legit guys and still finishes weaker guys in r1 a lot or gasses and finds a way to lose if not.

Elkins vs Skelly goes distance if line isn't ridiculous

Anyone have thoughts on Nunes vs Shevchenko? With Pena and Rousey out and Cyborg at 145, the winner might be next in line if Rousey takes extended time off.

haha yeah swoop, mcgregor has completely piqued our interest and AS is lingering in the background like someone like Clay Guida often does.

Villante seems like the type of fighter Latifi KO's stiff. Latifi trains at the same gym I'm at and he is an absolute beast.

I know right. I have an appointment during the fight and I am not even going to bother to reschedule...

Yeah I like Pickett here too. Rivera has a low fight IQ and meanwhile Pickett really needs a win.

Parke has already pretty much said in interviews that he wants to stay standing and box. Anything can happen but if anything I would be on a Khabilov sub

For the main event my favourite bet is the over 2.5r. I have no clue who will win and its really close.

At 4 to 1 I would be on Bisping.

I am looking forward to this fight as a fan but really hard to cap. Maybe the over?

Bellator 150

quieroz no cards 2u
quieroz - 1u
ruth 2u
france 1u
cooper 0.5u

Bellator 150 Risk $744.50

Cheick Kongo (-185) vs Vinicius Queiroz $92.50 for $50.00
Cheick Kongo wins by 3 round decision (+195) $40.00 for $78.00
Vinicius Queiroz scorecards = no action (-110) $55.00 for $50.00
Cheick Kongo/Vinicius Queiroz Over 1½ (+100) $50.00 for $50.00

David Rickels/Bobby Cooper Under 2½ (+170) $40.00 for $68.00

Kendall Grove (-175) vs Francisco France $175.00 for $100.00
Kendall Grove scorecards = no action (-160) $64.00 for $40.00
Franciso France wins by 3 round decision (+250) $50.00 for $125.00

Rebecca Ruth (+175) vs Lena Ovchynnikova $100.00 for $175.00
Rebecca Ruth wins inside distance (+245) $30.00 for $73.50
Rebecca Ruth/Lena Ovchynnikova Under 2½ (-120) $48.00 for $40.00


Glory 27 Risk $125.00

Simon Marcus (+110) vs Artem Levin $100.00 for $110.00
Mike Lemaire (+400) vs Joe Schilling $25.00 for $100.00

Love this selection

Fired a unit in on Pickett +160 at a slow moving aussie book. I feel like Pickett really wants this and he performed well vs Almeida. Rivera is closer to his prime but fought like an idiot against Lineker so I can't bet on him after seeing that. Would cap at evens after their last fights so liking Pickett as a dog.

Might take Bisping KO for a tiny play in case Anderson is done. Haven't decided yet.

Exactly my thoughts - Villante has managed to underwhelm me pretty much every time he fights

Between this and that bizarre Glory title fight, it was a good start to the weekend.

Bellator 150 Results Risk $744.50

Cheick Kongo (-185) vs Vinicius Queiroz $92.50 for $50.00= $50.00
Cheick Kongo wins by 3 round decision (+195) $40.00 for $78.00= $78.00
Vinicius Queiroz scorecards = no action (-110) $55.00 for $50.00= Cancelled
Cheick Kongo/Vinicius Queiroz Over 1½ (+100) $50.00 for $50.00= $50.00

David Rickels/Bobby Cooper Under 2½ (+170) $40.00 for $68.00= $68.00

Kendall Grove (-175) vs Francisco France $175.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Kendall Grove scorecards = no action (-160) $64.00 for $40.00= $40.00
Franciso France wins by 3 round decision (+250) $50.00 for $125.00= -$50.00

Rebecca Ruth (+175) vs Lena Ovchynnikova $100.00 for $175.00= $175.00
Rebecca Ruth wins inside distance (+245) $30.00 for $73.50= -$30.00
Rebecca Ruth/Lena Ovchynnikova Under 2½ (-120) $48.00 for $40.00= -$48.00
-----
Total Profit= $433.00


Levin quitting in frustration in round three was crazy but I'll take it.

Glory 27 Results Risk $125.00

Simon Marcus (+110) vs Artem Levin $100.00 for $110.00= $110.00
Mike Lemaire (+400) vs Joe Schilling $25.00 for $100.00= -$25.00
-----
Total Profit= $85.00

Ended up firing a half unit or so on Bisping TKO/DQ +659; after wanting it at +1100 and it steaming to +4xx i'd be too tilted if it hit if I didn't get on. Maybe old and post-steroids Anderson is shot, maybe he isn't; if he is i'll take the bet. If he isn't shot then he'll wreck Bisping, so whatever.

Anderson -220 now got to take those odds