Thanks - yeah that may be the safest play if the quotes Hendricks made in this article are accurate. Thompson seems like the perfect opponent to employ that strategy considering striking is his only hope of winning.


Benson was such an under-appreciated champion IMO, never understood all the hate. Loved seeing him beat Thatch who looked like he had 30+ pounds on him. oh well at least there's interesting matchups for him at Bellator.

I am glad to hear Bendo is with Bellator, it will create more interest and buzz around Bellator which they need.

I am flip flopping on Thompson/Big Rigg, I really hope Wonderboy wins but I can see Big Rigg just outworking him and wrestling for 3 rounds. Big Riggs last few fights have been against legit guys in Robbie x2 and GSP.

I wish I could get wonderboy at like 3.5 to 1 then I would be very interested.

The problem I have trying to handicap Hendricks-Wonderboy is there's such a huge gap between what Hendricks should do if he wants to win this fight, and what he should do if he wants to get another shot at the title.

If he wants to win this fight then takedowns and top control are his most obvious route to victory.

The UFC brass have made it abundantly clear they don't like those kind of "boring" fighters holding their belts though. They want "action", "wars" and all that stuff. Hendricks knows this, he's basically said as much in interviews in the past.

So if Hendricks ever wants to fight for the title again, I suspect he's gotta go back to knocking people standing up, which is what got him his title shot in the first place.

I have NFI which game plan he'll go with in this fight though: anyone got any thoughts on it?

In other news, Northcutt is going to Tristar full-time: http://www.mmafighting.com/2016/2/2/...ing-ufc-on-fox

Good to hear Northcutt is going to a real camp full time. He still has huge potential, especially if he can stay at LW for now where he will have a size advantage. He could easily wind up like Wonderboy as a pure striker who evolves his TDD/defensive grappling to become a contender over the next few years. Remember, Max Holloway got tapped easily by Dustin Poirier early in his career as a 7-1 dog, and now he's top 5 and would be -250 or something against Poirier in a rematch. Sage is 19, I wouldn't be at all surprised if he's top 10 by the time he's 24 if he trains full time with a good camp. At the end of the day most fighters don't hit their prime until at least their mid 20s and aren't even in the UFC yet at 19. I hope he can live up to his potential.

I'm happy with my Wonderboy bet in a 5 round right at +220, I think he's a small dog due to the wrestling if Hendricks comes to grind, but should win the fight standing if he can keep it there or Hendricks ego makes him want to strike and he has a legit chance at KOing Hendricks as well especially if Hendricks mind isn't in the right place or he's decided to eat all of the steak and struggles with the weight.

Regarding Bendo in Bellator I fully expect him to win the WW title there; and he's a decent shot to get the LW belt if he chooses to go that route too. I'd say a debut win over a top 10 fighter should get him an automatic title shot in his 2nd fight, although if Bellator are still doing tournaments it would make sense for him to enter one of those and just win it as well. I fully expect him to hold a belt within a year if he stays healthy.

Won't even take that long it seems - his first fight with them is gonna be on April 22, for the WW title: http://www.mmafighting.com/2016/2/2/...against-andrey

So they're not messing about with him then :P

Pretty mad at myself not taking Rubio at +170 for now before Iowa and 700 as president as a trading position but oh well. Hoping Donald crushes nh with Rubio second so might get some value in later states. Still haven't fired any actual bets this cycle but I def will at some point. I did consider cruz +200 for Iowa but didn't want to fade huge turnout which it effectively was doing since its been such a weird cycle. Cruz isn't going to be the nominee though despite Iowa imo.

Aaaaaaand I posted that in the wrong thread and I'm on my phone. Oops. Bend getting ww title shot in bellator debut hoping it's bettable. Davis will win lhw belt too might see a few more top 10 guts jump ship between Reebok and likelihood of winning belts in bellator. Guys like assuncao or jacare could easily be champs in their weight class in bellator and it would probably pay better than the ufc.

Since my earlier bets finally got cancelled, and after seeing his weight cut photos and his training on the UFC Countdown show, I switched to betting Hendricks and the over 2½. I think he's going to outwrestle Wonder Boy easily and maybe even stop him, hopefully late.

This. Me and a bunch of friends were discussing this earlier in the week and thought that -220 was an absolutely ridiculous line on Hendrix. He's better than Thompson in so many ways should have been -500 or -600 in my books. Could be value on Johnny finishing him since the fight is 5 rounds not 3, and you can get insane value on Round 3, 4 or 5 finishes.

I don't agree that the line should be anywhere near as high as you suggest, but I did play Hendricks' ITD line at +225 so far.

I will probably tail this line, looks good to me.

When they release new odds based off the 5 round fight, you'll find good value for Hendrix via Rounds 3, 4 and 5. I

I'm on Hendricks wins in round 3, 4 & 5 at nice odds. But I'm sick that I missed the release of OSP by submission at +1100 this afternoon. All the other sharps who were paying attention today are on it. Down all the way to +350 now!

Annoyed that Borg would up at like -300; -274 now. I really wanted to bet him vs Scoggins but now almost considering the other direction I thought it would open like -130/+100 or whatever

Can Alex White grapple? I know i've seen his 3 fights I just don't remember any of them. Lobov is absolutely terrible but if White is a striker then can't really fade him either

I'd love to fade Pyle's chin but Spencer only has 2 KOs in 16 fights; if it turns into a grapple-grind is Pyle the fav here? I have no idea. He's 40 and has no chin but should have the better technique right? Idk I liked Spencer initially but this matchup kinda suits Pyle right?

I'm on Spencer. His takedown defense has seemed ok and he should have enough of a speed advantage to control this fight on the feet even if he doesn't get the KO. He rocked Garcia a few times in that fight and Pyles chin shouldn't be as good. 40 yo Pyle is at least +200 vs anyone who belongs in the UFC and though Spencer isn't a top level UFC fighter at this point I think his performances have shown that he belongs.

Yeah I love the idea of fading Pyle in theory. His last good performance was Story and even though I was on him and was glad he got the nod as Story was LnPing I did expect Story to get the dec.

Pyle's chin is shot though so maybe Spencer KO even though he isn't known for it? IDK i'll take a closer look on the weekend I guess. Only on Wonderboy +220 so far.

I agree, no idea how Lobov is favored. Regardless taking Alex White for 2u and in a couple parlays. White/Hendrix is +200 is anyone is interested

Hendricks looks in incredible shape, this is gona be a long night for Wonderboy. Think he starts of looking the fresher one, but Hendricks is going to out-mma him and slowly wear him down.

Agreed, I was shocked when I saw him. Can't wait to see this fight and how he performs, and hopefully for us Johnny can finish him in the later rounds so we can scoop a couple units

I know absolutely nothing about either fighter, but these guys make a decent argument that unless the fight is a work there's no reason Mickey Gall should be such a huge favourite this weekend: http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2016/2/4/...-breakdown-mma

Anyone know anything about either guy? Do they even have the right Mike Jackson? Is he really worth betting at +400 or better?

It's a fight anything can happen, and Jackson for the fact that he's 0-0 in the UFC may lead to his line being so high. I'm not totally sure as I haven't looked much into the fight but I have 1u on Jackson for the hell of it.

You can look at the odds and see how the oddsmakers expect it to play out, Gall is -160 to win by sub (+160 TKO & +600 Dec).

Jackson looks to be a pretty experienced striker so if I was betting on it I'd take Jackson TKO +905. 'no sub' is a line that interested me at +130 but Gall is a purple belt in BJJ so thinking he'll win by sub is pretty likely if Jackson has no real ground game.

There is an article here that talks about his experience http://www.mmafighting.com/2016/2/3/...inks-the-whole "one bout of MMA experience -- an amateur fight in 2012. He's fought as a pro boxer and kickboxer, but sparingly. He's been out of training the last few months due to an injury and school, just completing his degree from the University of Houston."

Yeah I agree and need to remind myself that Hendricks arguably beat GSP not long ago. I think Wonderboy has a punchers chance to KO him.

Hendricks will either get the finish or grind to an ugly decision just by controlling Wonderboy for so much of the fight.

I also think there is a decent chance that Hendricks KOs Wonderboy in r1 or r2 he moves deceptively fast and has heavy hands.

Some underdog plays for action on AXS TV tonight. Plus a couple small boxing plays.

Legacy FC 51 Risk $200.00

Manny Vazquez (+435) vs Ricardo Ramos $50.00 for $217.50
Travis Coyle (+375) vs Brock Larson $50.00 for $187.50
Jacob Volkmann (+125) vs Antonio Trócoli $50.00 for $62.50
Kevin Asplund (+400) vs Cody East $50.00 for $200.00

Golden Boy Boxing on Estrella TV Risk $20.00

Ruben Garcia (+4000) vs Randy Caballero $10.00 for $400.00
Silverio Ortiz (+1400) vs Frankie Gomez $10.00 for $140.00

Dogs barked tonight on AXS TV. Two came through, nearly three out of four, if Brock Larson didn't fight off that guillotine as his head turned purple in his retirement fight. Nice hit at +435 in the main event to start the weekend off.

Legacy FC 51 Risk $200.00

Manny Vazquez (+435) vs Ricardo Ramos $50.00 for $217.50= $217.50
Travis Coyle (+375) vs Brock Larson $50.00 for $187.50= -$50.00
Jacob Volkmann (+125) vs Antonio Trócoli $50.00 for $62.50= $62.50
Kevin Asplund (+400) vs Cody East $50.00 for $200.00= -$50.00
-----
Total Profit= $180.00


Golden Boy Boxing on Estrella TV Risk $20.00

Ruben Garcia (+4000) vs Randy Caballero $10.00 for $400.00= -$10.00
Silverio Ortiz (+1400) vs Frankie Gomez $10.00 for $140.00= -$10.00
-----
Total Loss= -$20.00


Grand Total for the Night= $160.00