pretty sure that wasnt far off from edgar vs maynard 3

Fights to make right now

Holloway/Stephens winner vs Duffy/Poirier winner for #1 contender

Edgar vs Conor/Aldo winner

Ferguson title shot or vs Johnson

Gonzaga vs Struve (actually im worried it might suck with them both being tentative lately but it could be great too)

Dunham vs Makdessi/Medeiros winner

Mendes vs Yuri Alcantara at 135 or Holloway/Stephens loser at 145

Barboza vs Ross Pearson 2 or Makdessi if he wins impressively or maybe the Pettis/Alvarez loser although that might derail one of them quite heavily

Am I high for considering a hedge play ? I have the farm on Connor currently and frankly based on what I saw at the weigh ins I'm fairy concerned...

Won about 5u for the card as a whole to go with the 3.9u I got yesterday, see if we can make it 3/3 winning cards tomorrow

So far I have 4.9u Weidman -140 (which I love, i'd add more at -127 available now if it wasn't irresponsible BRM), 1u Torres -224, 0.2u Alves +103, 0.25u Maia -105, 0.05u Saenz +520, 0.55u Conor (decision no action) -156, Weidman to close a 0.1u 10 fight parlay with 3 pushes (originally to win about 4.5u, think it'll be about 2u with the pushes), 8 legs of a 0.1u to win 9.7u 10 fight parlay with todays card completing 2/10 legs and 0.1u Romero wins in r3 +11xx

Might do some more analysis (havent even looked at weigh ins yet) and make a few more plays, leaning on fading the steam to take Maia over Gunnar in a 3 rounder (I wouldnt in a 5 rounder), add more on Conor straight up if he becomes a dog, will prob fire a proper bet on Saenz and Alves as well, maybe Romero even though he might be the guy I want to see get KO'd the most out of any UFC fighter, think Stephens may be a bet at the price but I might not since I want to cheer for Holloway, will look more at Mustafaev and decide on ITD or Decision there too.

Why on earth would you bet the farm on Conor when Weidman is right there literally one fight before (they were at similar prices most of the last few mths)

My head says Aldo but my gut says Conor and my gut has been right more often lately, I havent watched the weigh ins yet though

I was gonna say Mendes v Holloway or Stephens. Maybe even Cub if he decides to fight.

Who are your picks for tomorrow?

I was up huge before the co-main and main events. I called Lobov/Hall totally wrong and had way too much prop money on the main event going the distance despite picking Frankie correctly. Ended with only a modest profit.

TUF 22 Finale Results

Frankie Edgar (-125) vs Chad Mendes $250.00 for $200.00= $200.00
Frankie Edgar/Chad Mendes Over 4½ (-168) $168.00 for $100.00= -$168.00
Frankie Edgar wins in round 4 (+2000) $10.00 for $200.00= -$10.00
Frankie Edgar wins in round 5 (+2300) $10.00 for $230.00= -$10.00
Frankie Edgar wins by 5 round decision (+115) $50.00 for $57.50= -$50.00
Frankie Edgar wins by 5 round unanimous decision (+205) $50.00 for $102.50= -$50.00
Chad Mendes +5½ points (-265) $265.00 for $100.00= -$265.00
Chad Mendes wins by 5 round split/maj dec (+1020) $25.00 for $255.00= -$25.00

Artem Lobov (-230) vs Ryan Hall $230.00 for $100.00= -$230.00
Artem Lobov wins by 3 round decision (+464) $25.00 for $116.00= -$25.00

Tony Ferguson (-130) vs Edson Barboza $260.00 for $200.00= $200.00
Tony Ferguson/Edson Barboza starts round 2 (-287) $287.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Tony Ferguson wins by 3 round decision (+285) $40.00 for $114.00= -$40.00

Evan Dunham/Joe Lauzon Over 2½ (-172) $68.80 for $40.00= $40.00

Tatsuya Kawajiri -3½ points (-140) vs Jason Knight $140.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Tatsuya Kawajiri wins inside distance (+344) $50.00 for $172.00= -$50.00
Tatsuya Kawajiri Live In-Play (-526) $526.00 for $100.00= $100.00

Julian Erosa (-135) vs Marcin Wrzosek $135.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Julian Erosa Live In-Play (+460) $50.00 for $230.00= $230.00

Gabriel Gonzaga (+100) vs Konstantin Erokhin $100.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Gabriel Gonzaga wins by submission (+345) $35.00 for $120.75= -$35.00

Ryan LaFlare (-165) vs Mike Pierce $165.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Ryan LaFlare wins inside distance (+348) $30.00 for $104.40= -$30.00
Ryan LaFlare wins by submission (+1275) $10.00 for $127.50= -$10.00

Geane Carlos Herrera (-105) vs Joby Sanchez $105.00 for $100.00= $100.00

Abner Lloveras (+170) vs Chris Gruetzemacher $100.00 for $170.00= -$100.00
Abner Lloveras/Chris Gruetzmacher goes 3 round distance (+155) $40.00 for $62.00= $62.00

Fights to go distance under 5½ (-104) $41.60 for $40.00= -$41.60
Fights to go distance under 4½ (+268) $25.00 for $67.00= -$25.00
Fights to go distance under 3½ (+739) $10.00 for $73.90= -$10.00
Fights to go distance under 2½ (+2575) $5.00 for $128.75= -$5.00
Fights to go distance under 1½ (+12700) $3.00 for $381.00= -$3.00

Evan Dunham/Joe Lauzon FOTN award winner (+500) $20.00 for $100.00= -$20.00
-----
Total Profit= $229.40

Wow my bet on Lobov was pure lighting $$ on fire

Glad to see Edgar come through for all of us

I added another 2.5u on Weidman so now have 5.1u to win 4u on Chris
1u to win 1.5u on Aldo
2.65u to win 1u on Mustafaev

Record: 5-4-0 +0.06u

Good luck all !!!!!

I like your bets usually Jim but can you let me know why you bet Mendes +5.5 at -265? I was on the other side of that at something like +205 and it seemed excellent I mean did you think Mendes would win two then fade a lot? The price just seems awful given the relative price of each outcome in the props and Mendes ML price at +125 to +130, +9.5 points I could understand for sure due to likelihood it goes the distance but +5.5 didn't seem like enough to lay that juice over just taking Mendes straight up if you think he wins enough, if Edgar wins but Mendes covers it has to mean a decision, which Edgar wins, which means he probably won rounds 4 and 5, so Chad would need specifically 2 of the first 3 rounds to cover but not win outright imo

I find the +/- points are best for fighters who dont finish but win dominant 30-27s and 50-45s or for fighters who tend to start or finish strong

If you look at my array of bets on the main event I figured it was going to go to a competitive perhaps 48-47 decision with Frankie probably winning a close UD or split decision. If that had happened I would have won most of my bets including my Frankie ML bet, the over 4½ rounds prop, Frankie UD and/or DEC props and Chad +5½ points. It would have been seen as a savvy play had it come off, but in hindsight it was a pretty pricey prop that didn't take into account Frankie getting a finish.

Still like the barboza bet, thin he often gets the finish there after the cut.

Chad I was shocked, never though Edgar could get the KO very very impressive

Love my aldo tko +550 now near +350 so way ahead of the line fingers crossed

Duffy and Poirier are at 155.

oops. so not that then

still undecided on a few fights tomorrow but im sure ill end up somewhere

Those leg kicks by mendes were worrying though for Frankie.

Yeah but on the plus side his boxing looked sharper than ever

It's been a while since Aldo fought, will be interesting to see how Aldo vs McGregor goes tomorrow wouldnt be surprised if it was a war or a one sided beatdown in either direction

If Aldo wins, I think it will be by decision.

Locking in another half unit on Maia -106 for 0.75u total now

I agree Aldo wins a decision a bunch when he wins fwiw but hoping for the sake of the UFC (and because i'm not an Aldo fan) that Conor can live up to the hype

Added on fights to end in sub o2.5 to o6.5 (0.35u, 0.1u, smaller), Mustafaev ITD +134 for 0.28u, Torres -3.5 +170 for 0.55u, Alves scorecards no action -162 for 0.55u as well

That should do me for now I guess

Tonight I have got
Saenz at +500 for 0.5 units
Maia at -120 for 1 unit
Aldo at +200 for units ( had 4 units but hedged 2 to reduce liabilities a little and get a better price.)

That will prob be it for me can't wait for tonight hoping Weidman gets the win but its a tough fight to call.

This is exactly how I see it. Stylistically:

Edgar is a much tougher opponent for Connor than Aldo is.
Connor is a much tougher opponent for Aldo than Edgar is
Aldo is a much tougher opponents for Edgar than Connor is.

A regular circle champ match imo. But overall I think Edgar is the best out of the 3.

I remember a few years back at the beginning of Fergussons win streak that he has all the tools to be the champ. Someone accurately at the time said he just got beat by MJ. Well fast forward a few years and it looks like both could be championship material. Great to see both guys improve so much at a relatively advanced age. Most improvements like this happen to 21 year olds.

Ferguson, while I don't see him becoming a champ, has to be the top 3 trickiest fighter out there today, at least in his division.

Logic on betting Maia? I feel like Nelson has a significant advantage on the feet and the ground games w cancel ea other out? Plus Maia is 38 and gotta be close to his way out by now

TEAMSJOSE ALDO SPREAD TOTAL
2.5 -130
ODDS
-115
CORRELATED 5K-2K-2K USD
+5 Props
CONOR MCGREGOR
2.5 +110
-105

maia's last 2 wins are vs laflare and magny so he can clearly still outperform young guys and the magny win looks so much better with magny's recent win


i actually think nelson's ground game is overrated and that maia will sub him