Oh nvm I screwed up american odds for decimal odds. It was pretty late over here when I wrote that, lol.

Anyone else think Edgar wins in r4 +2250 and Edgar wins in r5 +3050 might be decent against Mendes? Feels like if he gets a finish it'll be in the championship rounds when Mendes slows down/gasses potentially, and Mendes is coming off a KO loss, granted on short notice and he was gassed but Edgar comes on strong in the later rounds and after each KO (this is only Mendes second) there's a chance the chin gets weaker

I feel like there's a good chance Mendes wins the first round, then the second and maybe third are close then Edgar takes over in the championship rounds enroute to a late finish or 48-47 or 49-46 a lot of the time

Also, does anyone else find it amusing Sage Northcutt is -1750 now? I mean yeah, they're trying to feed him a win but he's very green and has yet to face anyone ranked in the top 100 (not sure if Trevino is top 100 or not, but definitely top 50 if not). I fully expect him to win via R1 KO again, but at that price you have to fade surely

Yeah the Northcutt line looks way off. Can't remeber what Pfister is like though but he beat Cedeno who isn't bad and Northcutt hasn't beat anyone decent enough to warrant those odds.

Struggling with this weekends card only really like Rousey by submission at -215 so far

I wanna bet Struve -114 but just cannot pull the trigger.

Too many ??? that even weight ins might not answer

I agree this coming card is very interesting betting wise. Bettin on Pfister might just be a no brainer odds wise.

The Hall v Whittaker match is also so hard to figure out.

I'm leaning Hall at these odds but again cannot pull the trigger yet.

I'm gonna keep watching tape, something I'm not seeing on these fights.

That Northcutt line does seem crazy, yes.

As for Edgar in r4/5... those are some sweet odds, but I feel like pretty much all the time it gets to the later rounds it's just going to be Edgar doing his usual thing, dancing around landing volume strikes and cruising to a decision? He did get that super-late submission on Swanson, but I don't feel like Mendes is as likely to get caught out like that?

He finished pre-shot-chin Maynard in r4, Swanson in r5 and Penn in late r3 in the last few years so I think it's bettable at those odds

Dodson has asked for Almeida to welcome him back to BW - would def take Dodson there at evens or better, I think Almeida has amazing KO power but he's so sloppy at times I can't see a fast, polished, well rounded fighter like Dodson losing to him even with the big size disadvantage Dodson will have

Edgar/Mendes seems so close to a coin-flip that betting the underdog has value. Thoughts?

I like the r4, r5 bets as well. Edgar has proven that he's not content to cruise to UD's and looks for the finish even if it means a little risk.

Edgar has better speed and volume and cardio, Mendes has more power. Edgar also probably has better recovery.

I think Frankie is the favourite for a reason, I feel like while it's a competitive fight, Edgar should have an edge. I probably wouldn't bet Mendes until +200 personally, and i'll be on Edgar at -150 or better for sure if price improves. As it stands I just have Edgar in one parlay at -155 I think

Though, Mendes is exactly the type of fighter Edgar has struggled against (See Maynard), power punchers with a good wrestling background or TDD, who are close to his speed, which Mendes and Aldo both are.

Given Edgar has evolved a lot, but so has Mendes, his standup vs Aldo looked very sharp and he cracked iron chin McGregor with some hard shots which wouldn't surprise me if they would have dropped Edgar and have dropped other featherweights, see Guida / Lamas for instance.

Point is, you got to have a sturdy chin as hell to take Mendes shots, and I'm not sure Edgar has it. Beside, Mendes has had a full training camp so I don't see conditioning being that big of a deal, especially if Mendes is able to land some heavy shots on Edgar. Mendes did stay alive for 5 good rounds vs Aldo.

I agree that the Mendes who showed up against Aldo is dangerous, but remember Edgar won more rounds against Aldo in one fight than Mendes has in two

Edgar is far from a lock but I just don't see Mendes outworking him to a decision and Edgar's recovery is excellent, he's never been finished despite being dropped multiple times - I think Mendes will need to finish him (likely in the first 2 rounds as Edgar always seems to improve the longer the fight goes) to win this one

I'm going to go with either Edgar 49-46 or Edgar via r4 TKO if Mendes cardio is what it was vs McGregor

Haven't actually fired the Edgar r4/5 props yet but I probably will before the fight

Speaking of Gray Maynard, dude only has 1 win in the last 5 years...Wowza! He beat Clay Guida in 2012. His previous win to that was vs Kenny Florian in 2010. At that time he was undefeated (not counting his exhibition loss to Nate Diaz on the Ultimate Fighter)

Maynard was legit at the time, he's completely shot and past his prime now because his chin is gone and his pace has slowed a bit, but when he fought Edgar he was a legit top 5 LW in the world, and the legit second best in the UFC (Bendo/Pettis were still in WEC from memory and Cerrone wasnt the fighter he is now and was also WEC)

Edgar and Grant combined took his chin away and by the time he rematched Diaz his chin was shot.

Maynard's wins leading up to the title shot were legit, he had wins vs Edgar, Diaz, Florian who was still a top 10 fighter, Jim Miller and Denis Siver among others, and his Guida win after the Edgar fights was over a much better Guida than the fighter we know today, Guida was still in his prime for that fight (arguably the last fight of either mans prime given their disappointing performances in that fight and since)

Yeah no doubt, the Maynard Edgar fought was in his prime.

anyone here living in finland?
i am going to be there during ufc 194 and was wondering how i can watch it

Excellent post. Maynard was a beast. I spoke with Frank Trigg back in the summer of 2009 and he said he'd bet his left nut that Maynard would be the champ within 2 years.

Maynard def. deserves to be on the list of the WTF happened to your career list which will always be headlined by Brandon Vera.

Can anyone add a top 5 list of wtf happened to your career?

I love your avatar.

Got damn, Struve is a huge HW. Just imagine if he had Jon Jones talent, and could fight on the outside and had a good clinch. He'd wreck fighters. Perhaps the solution would be to take like 3-4 years break and let him grow a bit more, he's only 27 after all, and HW is a division where u usually do better once you're older. I'm afraid he'll accumulate too much damage on his way up.

Had to take the dogs on both of these Legacy lines on AXS TV tonight. Size advantage for both, Soriano moving up in weight plus Soriano gasses. Leite is very tough though- he's undefeated, a finisher and a two division champion in Legacy, so I think Quay in the co-main event has the better chance than Spann to upset, and this is reflected in the odds.

Legacy FC 48 Risk $80.00
Ryan Spann (+230) vs Leonardo Leite $40.00 for $92.00
Josh Quayhagen (+150) vs Sean Soriano $40.00 for $60.00


Dog chasing on boxing tonight too. Lotta upsets been happening lately with the abundance of cards on tv:

PBC Boxing on Spike Risk $50.00
Michael Seals (+900) vs Edwin Rodriguez $50.00 for $450.00

So close on the boxing play! Seals knocked down his opponent at the end of the second round and Rodriguez was saved by the bell before coming back to knock down and knock out Seals in the third. Would have been huge if that hit. Oh well, UFC 193 is tomorrow for the big plays.

Legacy FC 48 Risk $80.00
Ryan Spann (+230) vs Leonardo Leite $40.00 for $92.00= -$40.00
Josh Quayhagen (+150) vs Sean Soriano $40.00 for $60.00= -$40.00
-----
Total Loss= -$80.00


PBC Boxing on Spike Risk $50.00
Michael Seals (+900) vs Edwin Rodriguez $50.00 for $450.00= -$50.00

Leaving Tito and Chuck off the list as they both reached their potential then declined due to age/injuries/etc. Going to leave BJ Penn off the list for the same reason even though post-Edgar 1 he was never the same, he did get to be the champ so he has a real legacy etc.

Jens Pulver would make the list too but again he got to be the champ, so leaving anyone who held a major belt off the list.

Going with people who were active post UFC 100 only

Brandon Vera - was supposed to be the new guy to carry LHW/HW, didn't happen.

Gray Maynard - was the legit number two LW in the UFC, now getting KO'd by everyone and losing to guys like Alexander Yakovlev

Keith Jardine - was meant to be the next big thing after KOing Chuck, lost 6 of his next 7 fights

Erick Silva - I legitimately though he could be the UFC champion, even as late as when he got KO'd by DHK. Cardio issues, possible juicer given physique and awful performance with stricter drug tests. Never going to be anything other than a gatekeeper now despite all the potential in the world.

Adlan Amagov - looked great in his first few UFC fights, strong, powerful, lot of potential... and then he just retired and we never got to see whether he could climb the ladder.

Houstan Alexander would def. be in my top 3.

I wasn't referring to guys like Chuck who accomplished things. I meant it to be solely for people that were supposed to accomplish things but didn't.

Struve looks amazing at weigh in so i've changed my opinion there I was originally (as a huge Struve fan) leaning towards betting Rosholt and hedging with Struve by sub, but now i'm on Struve straight up and then smaller by sub

I also forgot Richie Vaculik was winning the Smolka fight til the finish so def going to fire him at evens vs a guy on a losing streak with no notable wins, this is do or die for Vaculik and the UFC clearly wants as many Aussies as possible to win with the matchmaking (only Noke got a bad MU out of all the aussies really and it's not that bad)

Also Rousey looked like she's pretty pissed at Holm now after weigh ins. Sub price got a little worse so I might wait as I don't want to lay more than -200 on Rousey SUB incase she goes all K1 and wins via GnP or whatever

Regarding Hunt bet, ITD is -220 and TKO is -210 so even though it'll be by TKO if he wins usually figured i'd keep the decision on my side for minimal extra juice although it'll almost always be by TKO given the state of Bigfoot's chin, I doubt Bigfoot can survive a war with Hunt like when he was on TRT, Bigfoot should only win if he can land a quick takedown in all 3 rounds because if Hunt connects on that chin it's over this time and Hunt's chin is still decent so he should survive at least a round on the ground if need be

I think Kelly may be value vs Montgomery too, neither of them are good and he's +230 and at home and Montgomery has been thoroughly unimpressive even though Kelly is sloppy and old he has power and he'll have a home crowd cheering him on

Here's what I have so far

1u Nguyen -130
1u Struve -129
1u Whittaker by DEC +260
0.7u Matthews wins ITD -124
0.56u o2.5 submissions on card +118
0.5u Hunt -235
0.5u Vaculik +101
0.5u Perosh/Villante u1.5 -146
0.35u Struve/Rosholt u1.5 +155
0.25u Struve by SUB +410
0.25u Kelly +230

The under usually steams on title fights so I may take the Letourneau/JJ over last minute depending what price it ends up at, i'd like to get some sort of Rousey crushes Holm bet too but need to decide which if any of them offer any value

Don't forget the mighty Sokjoudou burst onto the Pride scene with KOs over Little Nog and Arona who were both top ten fighters at the time. Was supposed to be mma's Mike Tyson and then got easily beaten by Machida and seemed like he wasn't mentally cut out for mma.