Yeah the obvious plays seem to be Glover ITD/Cummins DEC as they're the most likely and second most likely outcomes imo - that said Cummins straight up isn't at much worse of a price than Cummins DEC so i'll probably keep the 'it's MMA anything can happen' on my side unless the difference widens

Ok, let's try to keep disciplined and start a new record. This year I've done terrible in MMA (down like 7 units) lol.

Record: 0-0-0

Tibau (-121) 1.21u to win 1u

Abel lacks a bit of heart and although very explosive and athletic if he doesn't take you down he lacks fight IQ to come up w a plan B or C on the go.

Gleison will make him work for 3 rounds and might even KO him. 30-27 Tibau by decision imo.

I think I will be on the Tibau train this weekend and also like Birchak.
Almeida is pretty wild and I think a bit overrated Birchak looks good at +350.
Also got Vitor inside at -200 thinking about hedging it with Hendo straight up at +310 giving me not Vitor by decision at -1000 which is currently -1500 so should be value.

Yeah I can't imagine Belfort winning a decision very often, i'd imagine it only goes the distance if Belfort gasses in which case Hendo should win unless Vitor wins the first 3 rounds then gasses and doesn't get finished which seems unlikely

Adding Skelly (-155) 1.55u to win 1u

Souza has a wide stance and throws very unorthodox, sloppy body punches. Skelly (+350) by sub looks very attractive too (as I think he RNC the Brazilian late in the 2nd/ early 3rd) but too often Skelly will just pound from the guard for 3 rounds.

Some props I like for UFN 77: I already had Anthony Birchak ITD at +500 and I just hit the Birchak KO at +1040. I like the Piotr Hallman by submission line at +850 and also hit Hallman wins in round 3 at +2250. Glover Teixeira by submission at +360 is a great line imho. Also hit Dan Henderson KO at +450 and Hendo wins in round 1 & round 2 at +850 and +1250 respectively. Also hit Bruno Rodrigues wins in round 2 & 3 at +1225 & +2025 as well as ITD at +470. Plus Pedro Munhoz by submission at +440.

Also made a large straight bet on Clay Guida when it dropped to -155 and added to my ML action on Gleison Tibau at -135 and -115. Still on favorite Rashid Magomedov at -160. Also still have some 1u each underdog bets on Bruno Rodrigues at +145, Kevin Souza at +130 and Piotr Hallman at +180 as well as Anthony Birchak at +350.

Bellator tonight
Got Will Brooks -390 which is a good price
Lawrence -190 seems ok

Lashley lost to Thompson in their previous fight but dont know enough about what has happened since to make Lashley such a huge fav this time around.

Anyone have any insight to Freire vs Straus? Freire 2-0 vs Straus winning 3 rd decision 30-27 x2 29-28, and finishing in rd 4 after a back and forth first 3 rounds in their last meeting. Don't follow bellator but was a bit surprised to see Freire move to even/slight dog

Thompson at +400 looks good to me, Lashley has suspect cardio and Thompson is a pretty well rounded fighter now.

Also like Will Brooks currently at -350 but its a bit steep and I don't really like these odds unless I feel its a mismatch and Held is dangerous on the ground so think I'll pass.

Bellator 145 and RFA 32 action tonight. Surprised I have this much on a Bellator card. Hope it works out as expected. Fading Dakota Cochrane's short notice and step up in weight class for RFA 32.

Bellator 145 Risk $1193.00

Patricio Freire (+115) vs Daniel Straus $100.00 for $115.00
Patricio Freire wins by 5 round decision (+425) $50.00 for $212.50
Will Brooks (-385) vs Marcin Held $385.00 for $100.00
Will Brooks wins by 5 round decision (-120) $60.00 for $50.00
Marcin Held scorecards = no action( +116) vs Will Brooks $50.00 for $58.00
Michael Chandler/David Rickels Under 1½( -120) $120.00 for $100.00
James Thompson/Bobby Lashley Over 2½ (+174) $0.00 for $14.00
Bobby Lashley wins by 3 round decision (+240) $40.00 for $96.00
Emmanuel Sanchez (+160) vs Justin Lawrence $100.00 for $160.00
Emmanuel Sanchez +3½ points (-135) vs Justin Lawrence $135.00 for $100.00

Parlay:
Bobby Lashley (-390) + Michael Chandler (-1300) + Will Brooks (-450) $153.00 f0r $100.02


RFA 32 Risk $100.00
Ben Neumann (+100) vs Dakota Cochrane $100.00 for $100.00

good luck to you guys betting on bellator tonight

0.35u Brooks -5.5 points vs Held -130

Feels like this should either be a 50-45/finish for Brooks, or Held could win outright if he can get a sub or wind up on top on the ground a lot,

I'm struggling to see many ways this ends up as a 48-47 for Brooks unless either fighter gasses so taking the minus points for value, and from what i've seen/heard Brooks is really legit and his loss to Awad was a fluke and has been avenged, decent chance he's legit top 10

I really like Held too but not sure if a grappling specialist can get and hold Brooks down, I seem to remember Elliot saying that one of his fighters told him Brooks is the strongest lightweight he'd fought etc.

Added more on Brooks at this much improved line: Will Brooks (-255) vs Marcin Held $255.00 for $100.00

Adding a half unit on Brooks straight up at -253 as well

Well that was a pretty boring fight outside of r1, seems like a clear 49-46 Brooks so at least both bets should win barring judges being ******ed

lol wtf one judge scores it 50-45, utterly baffling how he has a job

Impressive by Brooks to win the last 4 rounds if he really blew his knee out in r1

If this major announcement they keep hyping is like the last one with the two women no one has ever heard of being added to a card then lol

I expect it's Fedor's opponent at NYE or another big signing though - most likely Fedor's opponent (i'm hoping it's someone at least semi legit like Shawn Jordan and not some 1-0 can)

LOL Royce Gracie vs Ken Shamrock main eventing... well done Bellator... and Kimbo Slice vs whoever the hell Dada 5000 is, I assume a can/streetfighter, ffs I want to see Slice get smashed, not fight cans and in fixed fights.

That card sounds like it will provide the lowest quality main and co-main of any MMA card in a long time

I wonder how much Shamrock is being paid to take another dive

Pitbull +140 now. On for small sweat.

Ya not exactly a card that will scare UFC execs. Is DADA 5000 the guy from the Netflix documentary "dawg fight" about street brawling in Miami? I guess it goes with the rest of the Bellator circus this week.

Also, lol at 50-45. Did he judge by different rules to give Brooks R1?

I'll admit, I just had to Google "Dada 5000" to find out who/what the hell he was...

How was that ME 48-47. I'd see 50-44 before that. Never leave it to the judges I guess

Great main event fight. I thought it was closer than the commentary made it seem.

I gave Pitbull 1,4 & 5. 1 was super close so could have gone either way. Interested to see where the two 48-47 Strauss judges scored rd by rd.

Great main event. I'll look forward to the quadrilogy in late 2016. Ended up with a decent profit despite picking the main event wrong.

Bellator 145 Results

Patricio Freire (+115) vs Daniel Straus $100.00 for $115.00= -$100.00
Patricio Freire wins by 5 round decision (+425) $50.00 for $212.50= -$50.00
Will Brooks (-385) vs Marcin Held $385.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Will Brooks (-255) vs Marcin Held $255.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Will Brooks wins by 5 round decision (-120) $60.00 for $50.00= $50.00
Marcin Held scorecards = no action( +116) vs Will Brooks $50.00 for $58.00= Canceled
Michael Chandler/David Rickels Under 1½ (-120) $120.00 for $100.00= -$120.00
James Thompson/Bobby Lashley Over 2½ (+174) $0.00 for $14.00= $0
Bobby Lashley wins by 3 round decision (+240) $40.00 for $96.00= -$40.00
Emmanuel Sanchez (+160) vs Justin Lawrence $100.00 for $160.00= $160.00
Emmanuel Sanchez +3½ points (-135) vs Justin Lawrence $135.00 for $100.00= $100.00

Parlay:
Bobby Lashley (-390) + Michael Chandler (-1300) + Will Brooks (-450) $153.00 for $100.02= $100.02
-----
Total Profit= $300.02

RFA 32 Results
Ben Neumann (+100) vs Dakota Cochrane $100.00 for $100.00= -$100.00