MMA Thread - Page 128 - Sports Betting - SportsBetting Strategy and Forum

Only fight I don't have a bet on coming up. Feels... weird?

Kinda want to cheer for Te Huna as he's from my general part of the world, and he should win, but betting him feels hugely -EV and the under seems -EV too but the over is bleh as well

Might just not bet, and hope Te Huna TKO's Beltran impressively

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07-11-2012 , 09:52 PM

#3177

just_mo

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Carmont should win sub of the night btw, that was a super sweet set up for his choke.

Think I might actually hedge on Beltran which seems crazy but I am terrified of anything going to decision at this point...

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07-11-2012 , 09:53 PM

#3178

SwoopAE

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Quote:

Originally Posted by just_mo

WHAT THE **** JUST HAPPENED?!

Those judges gave Robertson rounds?! Maybe I should just bet every underdog left since every decision is clearly just going to be a flip.

I thought that might have been a 30-26.

Dos Anjos 29-28 obv

It's lucky the 2 fights weren't close or we could have had 2 more judges robberies on our hands.

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07-11-2012 , 09:53 PM

#3179

DodgerIrish

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Under is hitting IMO

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07-11-2012 , 09:53 PM

#3180

Jaymun

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Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 230

I have a small play on te huna, but I don't think the odds warranted a play on him at all, in retrospect.

If munoz starts off by losing a round or two and the live values get good I'll probably hedge my weidman plays just because of that huge power

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07-11-2012 , 09:55 PM

#3181

DodgerIrish

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Te Huna looks like the love child of Domink Cruz and Big Foot Silva

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07-11-2012 , 09:59 PM

#3182

SwoopAE

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Te Huna is a bit of a dickhead after what he did to Perosh, but he's australian-ish, so I guess I have to cheer for him.

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07-11-2012 , 09:59 PM

#3183

GoDeViLs

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took under 2.5 @ -190 (bovada) -256 at pinny now

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07-11-2012 , 09:59 PM

#3184

just_mo

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Don't understand why people think Beltran is +EV. He's so awful...and so hittable. And not many hit harder than Te Huna.

Guess we'll see.

lol @ me doubting RDA's wrestling btw, horrible call there.

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07-11-2012 , 10:00 PM

#3185

Jaymun

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Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 230

Wow, te huna's hands are looking crazy fast

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07-11-2012 , 10:05 PM

#3186

SwoopAE

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Beltran is going to sleep before this is done. Glad I didnt odds play him.

10-8 Te Huna

or as tonight's judges see it, 10-9 Beltran ldo

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07-11-2012 , 10:05 PM

#3187

GoDeViLs

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sure wish it was right there, huna threw whole lotta punches

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07-11-2012 , 10:06 PM

#3188

just_mo

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Ez 10-8.

If my JTH inside distance doesnt cash because Beltran survived that I'll be pissed lol...

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07-11-2012 , 10:09 PM

#3189

SwoopAE

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lol wtf some bad referring today what a ridic standup in addition to all the 'STOP AT THE BUZZER' announcements 15 secs before the round ends etc

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07-11-2012 , 10:11 PM

#3190

just_mo

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sigh.

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07-11-2012 , 10:12 PM

#3191

SwoopAE

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wow, 20-17 Te Huna but he got rocked at the end. seems to be slowing. will be ridic if Beltran lands a haymaker, but Te Huna should win it pretty easily still

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07-11-2012 , 10:12 PM

#3192

just_mo

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Quote:

Originally Posted by SwoopAE

wow, 20-17 Te Huna but he got rocked at the end. seems to be slowing. will be ridic if Beltran lands a haymaker, but Te Huna should win it pretty easily still

Pretty much.

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07-11-2012 , 10:13 PM

#3193

GoDeViLs

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Quote:

took under 2.5

this one hurts a little more than the avg loss

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07-11-2012 , 10:16 PM

#3194

SwoopAE

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te huna's arms too tired to get the finish i think

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07-11-2012 , 10:18 PM

#3195

just_mo

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I hear ya Devils. Sick I lost that Te Huna inside distance prop. One of the most disappointing 30-26s there.

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07-11-2012 , 10:18 PM

#3196

SwoopAE

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Guessing that's FOTN despite being a sloppy brawl

I have it 30-26 Te Huna but it could be 29-27 as well theoretically. So basically the judges will score it as a majority draw obviously.

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07-11-2012 , 10:20 PM

#3197

just_mo

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JTH ain't sloppy. He's got nice boxing and a decent single leg.

Wow someone actually scored a 10-8. Count me impressed.

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07-11-2012 , 10:24 PM

#3198

SwoopAE

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Yeah that's a good point actually, I should have rephrased that as despite the guys getting tired/less active in R2/3. It was a good fight.

Still, the fact only 1/3 of the judges scored a 10-8 is slightly ridiculous given the volume of strikes Te Huna landed in R1 and the fact that he dropped him and rocked him a bunch and also got mount