what's this?

Ronda Rousey: Back In The Day
http://www.ebaumsworld.com/video/watch/84690374/

Pretty much how I see it.

I think Holm stands a decent chance of delaying the clinch, and she'd no doubt try to fight smart and maintain range, but at some point Rousey either finds an opening or just walks through a couple of shots, gets her down and game over. Maybe inside the first minute, maybe not, but I def see it happening inside the first round.

Nunes only lost to Zingano in September last year so ordinarily I'd think they wouldn't do a rematch that quickly, but this is WBW so anything goes I guess.

If the Correia match taught us anything though, it's that the casual fans who move the ratings and PPV needles don't care about "real options" or "contenders", they just want to see them some Ronda and they don't much care who she's fighting.

Johnson outstruck him in R1 by fightmetric and had CLEARLY the most significant blows with a straight knockdown and some follow-up bombs. Johnson outstruck him 35-22 in R2, it really wasn't close. The world would clearly be a better place if that self-important ****** Crosby ate a shotgun posthaste.

My 2 cents on Saturday night's fights:

I'm usually pretty in sync w/ scoring opinions of fans and posters here but I actually thought the MJ-Dariush decision wasn't that terrible. I'd have given it to MJ too, but it seemed entirely plausible to me that Dariush would win R2 & R3. If 10-10s were common I might have expected a 29-29 fight or 30-29 Johnson. Both rounds were fairly close in my eyes, yes Johnson got the better of it in R2 but he didn't really stand out via big shots or takedowns & ground control which judges typically love. If I were in his corner I'd tell him it could be 1-1. Unless rounds are super clear (and even sometimes when they are), you shouldn't count on it going your way. That's the unfortunate reality, but given some of the wtf rounds I've seen R2 in this fight was hardly exceptional.

I also wasn't too happy with the Alvey stoppage. Seemed like he didn't even get a chance to get back up after going down, and that he wasn't taking much damage when the fight was actually stopped. In fact if he'd stayed on his feet and continued eating big shots a stoppage may have been more warranted, but he may have actually been recovering on the ground. Who knows how much gas was left in Brunson's tank to go for a finish, and Alvey def has the KO power to get a win if he regains his senses, but we didn't get a chance to find out. It looked like Alvey was expecting to weather an early storm from Brunson (who looked very impressive) and just got more than he could handle.

There is a betting specific thread on Sherdog for each event which provides solid breakdowns and brings attention to good lines.

When I first watched this I was frustrated and thought it was an early stoppage. I saw a clip of the end of the fight last night and now I agree with the stoppage.

Alvey eats a few shots and goes down... once he hits the mat he doesn't cover up at all. He is face down on the mat with his hands resting on the mat as well. In other words he is not defending himself. Brunson would have landed 3 quick shots and the fight would have been over.

It was a good stoppage to avoid the formality of Brunson landing more shots.

Alvey stoppage was absolutely fine

..add.. Alvey was a stumbling drunk moments after the stoppage.

OSP may never be top 3, but he will always be entertaining (in a Yoel Romero kind of way).

He started off his career 0-2, then later pulls of a calf slicer submission:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KrK9W2nhgvs

He loses to people with no wikipedia page, but makes it to the UFC and puts that Al Capone Russian dude to sleep with a Von Flue choke, then KOs Shogun and Pat Cummins. He almost Von Flue's Glover and then elects to go unconscious instead of tapping at the end (I think).

Rick Story Injured; Neil Magny vs. Erick Silva will now fight at UFC Saskatoon

Don't want to beat a dead horse so this will be my last comment on this topic.
Alvey's hands were only on the mat for about a second and were covering his ear when he fight was stopped. Yes covering your ear isn't really defending yourself, and if a few more seconds had gone by where Alvey made no attempt to do anything but cover his head while eating punches then a stoppage would be perfectly fine. But he only had 3 seconds on the ground before the fight was stopped, it's simply not enough time to even have a chance to recover.

Although Alvey was rocked, the fact is that he wasn't out and he wasn't taking significant damage on the ground. Almost all the damage happened on their feet, and although Alvey was wobbly 3 seconds after the fight had stopped he was certainly even more wobbly 3 seconds before the fight had stopped which shows to me he was recovering. Brunson could very well have been gassed and his punches were only partially landing to the side of the head.

It just seems to me that by the standard Yamasaki used in this fight, dozens of fights that went on and were competitive could have been stopped and to me that would marginalize the sport somewhat. For a somewhat recent example I think there were a few times in Bisping v Leites that Bisping got rocked and spent a few seconds turtling and eating punches before recovering, and that was a competitive fight which Bisping wound up winning. Yeah I don't want people taking unnecessary damage, but these fighters understand what they're getting themselves into. Alvey was unhappy with the stoppage when it happened and was still unhappy with it later that night, and I think that means something. Aside from the most egregious cases, the damage caused by late stoppages seems to pale in comparison to the damage resulting from drawn out brawls like lawler/macdonald or jones/gustafsson. Sam Alvey was making youtube videos a few hours after getting TKOed and you'd never even tell that he'd been in a fight, Jon Jones goes to the hospital after a decision victory. Go figure.

One of my least favorite things is when fighters who stun their opponent just start wildly flailing with what seems like the direct intent of getting the ref to stop the fight, see Faber/Barao for an egregious example. It's like flopping in basketball. But I can't really blame them as long as refs stop fights in such situations even when little damage is being delivered and the stunned fighter has barely had a chance to recover. On the opposite end of this spectrum is like Lamas/Mendes, where Lamas had lots of time to recover on the ground and had taken multiple direct shots without showing any signs of getting to his feet or adequately protecting himself - that stoppage came a few seconds late if anything.

Not sure I understand the Romero comparison. Romero is top 3, is well rounded, and poses a serious threat to the title.

Going to smash Erick Silva wins in r1 line I think

Not sure about top 3 (Weidman, Rockhold, Jacare). He's top 5 though. Also depends whether we count Anderson as a MW still or not.

That depends how you define top 3. I was speaking specifically as a top 3 contender per the UFC's official ranking system. MMAJunkie has him in the same spot, and fightmatrix has him #3 overall (those are the only rankings I bothered to look at). Regardless, it's safe to say that he is a legitimate contender and at this point in time Anderson Silva is certainly not.

Shame Story is out thought he had all the tools to beat Silva and was decent odds.
Silva should beat Magny if he doesn't gas trying to finish in the first round and then let Magny pick him apart so yeah I think Silva inside the first is a good bet.

I agree, but i'd still take Anderson against Romero at even money, although he's suspended/may never fight again so who knows

Fired some bets in today, will look to add Moroz ITD and Erick Silva wins in r1 props on 5d when they're out

1u Erick Silva -177
0.66u John Burkman -125
0.5u Maryna Moroz -175

I really, really love all 3 bets and would probably be firing 5u on all three if I was in a more comfortable financial position (poker downswings etc, so not firing huge on sports atm)

Also plan to add at least half a unit on Moroz ITD and Silva wins in R1 (or Silva ITD if there isn't a huge difference in price)

Also added some parlays over the last couple days

0.4u Silva+Moroz+Burkman +330

0.02u Silva (vs Story; push), Burkman, Dodson, Arlovski, Johnson, Blachowicz, Rivera, Gustafsson, Hendricks +51025

0.02u Silva (vs Story; push), Burkman, Dodson, Arlovski, Johnson, Blachowicz, Rivera, Gustafsson, Hendricks, Chambers +558142

id say

Tates III

Holmes ( will have a super easy next fight to bring more hype as an ( other ) undefeated who challenge RR.

Zingano II

Cyborg at 140

( and maybe we can insert somewhere Amanda Nunes if she wins 5-6 fight in a row )

....and she's done with mma , undefeated.

-jpp

sangman,

You make good points.

I had money on Alvey by KO so believe me I did not want the fight to be over .

My guess is that the UFC is encouraging earlier stoppages to make the sport seem more credible/humane. The bigger the sport gets the higher the stakes so they need to keep their reputation clean (I am not saying I endorse this, just that this is likely what is happening).

PS. I like E Silva in r1 more than taking him SU. If Silva doesn't win in r1 then I actually favour Magny to win.

better yet: Magny/Silva under 1.5 is at +145

this is basically a bet on Silva but you also cover the possibility of Magny catching Silva early.

I was really excited about Silva-Story.

There's no UFC veteran who is ranked 15th or so (like Silva) that you could legitimately believe seeing beat the champion. This guy has all the tools... but for whatever reason can't seem to get it going every time in the ring.

I like Magny and he obviously wants to get back in there after his loss to Maia but Silva is equally slick on the ground. But Silva has stamina issues and if he can't get it done in r 1-2 I like Magny in round 3-4-5.

Pretty much this. Magny doesn't hit that hard and a lot of his wins are in later rounds when his opponent is broken.

McGregor opens at -160 to -190 vs Aldo, surprising when Mendes exposed some holes

at those odds, back the truck up on Aldo

agreed aldo is a technical striker and he will pick connor apart.

I don't know who to pick on this one. My gut says Connor but I don't know why, maybe I am subconsciously buying into the hype.

I think Connor has a lot of confidence OTOH Aldo is coming off an injury and may already have Connor in his head etc. I feel like psychologically Connor is in a better space than Aldo but I can't verify this.

It will be easier to pick after weigh ins when we have more information.