Underdog betting strategy pays off, nearly 50% R.O.I. on relatively small action even with only three out of seven wins.

Invicta FC 13 Risk $200.00

Faith Van Duin (+1400) vs Cristiane Justino $25.00 for $350.00= -$25.00
Tonya Evinger (+155) vs Irene Aldana $50.00 for $77.50= $77.50
Ayaka Hamasaki (+180) vs Herica Tiburcio $25.00 for $45.00= $45.00
Jessica Rose-Clark (+400) vs Pannie Kianzad $25.00 for $100.00= -$25.00
Catherine Costigan (+100) vs Amber Brown $25.00 for $25.00= -$25.00
Amy Montenegro (+210) vs Jamie Moyle $25.00 for $52.50= -$25.00
Amber Leibrock (+300) vs Marina Shafir $25.00 for $75.00= $75.00
-----
Total Profit= $97.50

...as if McGregor has anything close to $3 million to bet.

Anyway, McGregor is a great fighter, but this line is WAY too high, almost entirely because of his mouth. I took some +160 on Mendes and will be happy to take more if it gets much higher. Always fade hype vs quality.

Dana White said Aldo stood to make $4m for this fight, McGregor i suspect is making more then that due to the hype mostly coming from him so having $3m to bet doesnt surprise me

On the site I use to bet, I've noticed that they have takedown odds. I want to bet on essentially 'Conor to not get the most takedowns' by betting on either a tie or Chad.

The odds of a tie are +300 and the odds of Chad getting the most takedowns are -200...this is probably a really simple questions, but how would I work out what the overall odds I would be getting are, and how to size my bets so that I would get the same return regardless of the outcome?

UFC 189: Official Weigh-In

Added

0.13u Brown wins in r2 +575
0.13u Brown wins in r3 +1000 (really like this one)
0.1u Pendred -105 (liked Howard +150 opener but leaning Pendred at evens)
0.1u Pickett +620 (too good a fighter to be +620 even past his prime at FLW)
0.6u Thatch -172 (may add some on the -3.5 spread but it isnt out)

and waiting for the Garbrandt spread to maybe hit it if its reasonable

Also have 0.5u on Not Bermudez ITD -384 and another unit on Conor at -158 booking a friends action, so we also have

2u Rory -165
2u Conor -146
1.5u Brown -150
0.5u Not Bermudez ITD -384

and two 0.1u 7+ fight parlays w combos of my picks

Nice return Jim. You called it on Aldana being under the weather and losing.

Little over an hour away for the weigh ins and face offs.

Think chad is going to come in super strong, guy is no question a powerhouse.


Wounder how conor does this big weight drop thing, fluids cut and sauna ? Must drop 3 to 5 pounds ?

Wow, I didn't realize he stood to make so much. That's crazy , but in a good way since the UFC posted salaries are so low .

95% of fighters a paid the low salaries you see

Yea but I didn't know how much potential there was for the % of the ppv buys I guess. Especially for the champions , I thought at most they made another 200-300k off sponsors /ppv

stream is starting...

Elliot,

obv ppl are different and different things work for them but in general do you think hating someone and fighter's coaches calling the opponent a mother****er etc like chad mendes' coach in the latest embedded is more likely to hurt them? (DC said it hurt him hating jones and dustin poirier said the same now about facing conor) Especially compared to the approach mcgregor seems to have behind the trash talk of going into a fight calm and vs a faceless opponent?

It seems to be the same like going into a poker session trying to **** on everyone vs trying to make the right decision at every opportunity?

Thanks for the podcast btw

Jesus this fight card is stacked with good fights, unreal like a wet dream its so good ffs.


this is a quite special UFC event imo

brown, thatch, Alex Garcia, Lawler, conor







lol @ conor vs chad face off, they wanted to kill each other.

Hey Finisher,

Glad you like the podcast!

Tbh I think most of the "hate" you see in MMA is fake UFC encourages it to sell the fight (Like Aldo pushing Chad last year). When we see a true grudge match they usually fall flat as both fighters have too much ego invested.

A clear and focused mind is optimal in almost any sport. In this situation I'm pretty sure Chad believes he's a huge huge favorite and he's playing along with the circus to help the UFC sell seats and cover their potential losses on aldo falling through. (I've never worked with Chad so don't take that as inside info to bet on).

Connor is following the Naz/Rousey/Silva invincible route. He's created a character that he plays in the cage/interviews to remove pressure from himself. It can be very effective and intimidates opponents but one loss in the streak can finish those fighters as we saw with Naz and also Silva turning to PEDs and putting on a terrible performance vs Nick. Will be very interesting to see the fall out when he and ronda eventually get beaten.

Should be a great night of fights

Mcgreggor trying to play with faber today and getting embarrassed

https://instagram.com/p/4-gDyds4vB/

Lol , he lost his cool.. Maybe bad weight cut

McGregor looks like death. Can't imagine what that level of dehydration feels like.

wonder what the re-dehydration eating schedule is like between post weigh in.

Conor wil most likely put back how much weight, 10, 15, 20 pounds?

Be interesting to know the science of the dehydration, re-dehydration process, im sure its done professional with science going on in the routine.


hope both fighters enter the cage in tip top perfect condition and the best man wins.

Will likely be 20+ lb with an IV

Will be surprised if him and aldo don't move up after rule change in october

I may as well double down

http://i.imgur.com/aMKEbtW.gifv

How are they ever going to enforce a ban on IV re-hydration?

The plastics show up in the blood work, it's actually to stop blood doping.

(but it's impact on weight cutting will help everyone but Dolce)

Looking to lay a few bets for the sweat on the undercard...

What are you guys picking?