Only bet for today I have is Gonzaga at -170 to win 1 unit.
Did a write up for a mma betting site here it is if anyone is interested.
Gonzaga vs Cro Cop 2
In a rematch of one of the biggest shocks in UFC history Gabriel “NAPAU” Gonazaga (16-9) takes on the returning Mirko “CRO COP” Filipovic (30-11).
Gonzaga comes into the fight on the back of a two fight losing streak getting knocked out by Matt Mitrione in his last fight in December whilst CRO COP comes into the fight having beat Satoshi Ishii twice.
Although it would seem that Cro Cop is come back into the UFC with some momentum he is still a shell of his former self and his wins against lower calibre opposition outside the UFC haven’t raised his stock or shown that he has made any improvements since his last UFC run. Gonzaga’s UFC career has been filled with impressive wins followed by lackluster losses ever since that career defining victory over Cro Cop in 2007.
This is an interesting fight between two ageing veterans of the sport that are coming too the end of their careers but have enough name value and history to make this a main event worthy fight.
How do the two match up in the striking department?
Gonzaga although not the most technically proficient striker has bricks in his gloves and it only takes one clean shot to put his opponents in trouble. He knocked out Cro Cop in 2007 with a spectacular right high kick however in more recent fights Gonzaga’s standup is much more boxing centered.
He posses a strong right hook counter and has a nice straight right hand that he uses to put his opponents of balance and links it in with his takedown attempts to keep his opponents
guessing. Gonzaga lacks footwork and volume, at times in fights he becomes very predictable and stagnant if an opponent can move well and stick him on the end of a jab and counter his lumbering attacks.
One thing that is very noticeable in the decline of Cro Cop is his footwork and striking volume has dropped significantly. Cro Cop still has a really nice straight left and his body kicks are always dangerous however he is much more predictable and hittable now that he is at the end of his career and whilst technically better then Gonzaga on his feet he doesn’t have the athleticism anymore to use this advantage to its full extent.
On the ground and there is a clear advantage to Gonzaga with his vice like guillotines, world class jiu jitsu and brute strength he has a lot of ways to a finish a fight if he can get the fight there. Cro Cop has tried to avoid going to the ground in all his fights coming from a K-1 background his gameplan has always been to stand and strike although he is not exactly an amateur on the ground being in the sport of mma for more then a decade and can stifle an opponent enough to get a standup he will not threaten Gonzaga at all from off his back.
I can see the fight starting tentatively with Cro Cop circling and trying to find an opening but eventually I believe Gonzaga gets inside and gets a trip from the clinch or does some damage with his wild hooks. Gonzaga at this stage of there careers is just much more dangerous in all aspects of mma and as much as I like Cro Cop I don’t see him winning this fight.
I see the fight ending in the first or second round via ko or submission with Gonzaga getting his hand raised.
Dan Hardy really is a great commentator, I love his work and think he's much better than Florian and Anik
Back to about even for the card with Edwards and the polish guy winning, biggest bet from here is Westcott, then Manuwa (steam scares me here) then Gonzaga then Moroz
