Brown should just be too big and strong for Diaz but he is at a technical disadvantage, I wouldn't count Diaz out.

big bet of the weekend i dropped a significant chunk of my next vegas trips sports betting roll on jan blachowicz and also a few smaller bets on rocky lee as well as a small bet on anthony hamilton

gl, a really sharp guy I know likes Omelieczuk and Manuwa so i'm on the opposite side there - wonder if the home crowd factor will help the Polish guys or not - both fights shouldn't go the distance much anyway though

UFC 189 is quite good so far but I hope we get at least one more main card caliber fight and a HW fight since ill prob be going live, the WW division isnt exactly my fav division, at least give us some Erick Silva if we're gonna stack the card with WWs

I heard rumours Woodley vs Hendricks is in the works for 189 but again neither are really favourites of mine even though the fight is objectively good

If thats true we'd be 8 fights deep into what I assume is planned to be an 11-13 fight card, and all 8 are either WW or FW. Hopefully we can get a HW fight for a highlight finish (Gonzaga/Cropcop winner if they don't take much damage vs Tim Johnson or Oleksiy Olynyk maybe?) and then I assume they'll want a womens fight on their fight week card, some combination of McMann/Zingano/Pena maybe, or maybe something like Esparza vs Calderwood assuming she wins this weekend. A BW fight like Lineker/Caraway or something would make sense too. Then throw in 1-2 fight pass fights with no name prospects that might be something and the card is pretty much set.

if i thought gonzaga could ever perform at top potential again id love to see the olynyk matchup

but yea with manuwa he just doesnt impress me i mean his wins are kingsbury diabate and vs the king of freak finishes jimmo blachowicz has wins over sokoudjou and houston alexander both who i feel bring more to the table at the time than kingsbury and diabate and he had a super impressive win over latifi who had looked like a steamroller heading into that fight

This. Diaz is technically better everywhere. Will take him as a decent sized dog here.

They'd have to be steep as Connor-Aldo only need to go 3 rounds before they give it to them. It really depends if Diaz shows up to fight or just stand there and whine that he's getting his ass kicked as him and his brother do far too often. If he's game this could be a great fight. Nate doesn't work the body as good as Nick and with Brown having no fear of being taken down he should be able to blast at will.

Put out an offer but I think 10-1+ range for the double bonus win seems reasonable.

I should be down until July 6th but I might extend the stay for another week for the UFC as this is going to be a great card (in b4 injuries). Have u got tickets or are u planning on just watching it at a bar?

I dont have tickets yet but I will buy them on cl or w/e on the day you can usually get them at face value or better even for sold out events since people are desperate to offload, just gotta make sure its a physical ticket not an eticket as elliot and i managed to get ourselves scammed a few years ago buying tickets (the tickets were ridiculously underpriced, we should have known it was a scam, not gonna make that mistake again, ended up buying tickets and having the people walk us to the gate to verify the second time) - also means I don't have to deal w reselling them if i'm still in day 4 of the main event

Also on the off chance I earn comps this summer somehow (unlikely as I don't really pit gamble) could end up with comped tickets in theory I guess

Steam coming on Gonzaga against Crocop, kinda thought it might be the other way with the 'pride never die' fans betting on Crocop

I think Gonzaga's really underrated IF he's fighting smart, but he often tools out and abandons the gameplan, he's the kind of guy who would stand and bang with Lavar Johnson then pull guard against Fabricio Werdum

In theory though he should easily beat further past his prime crocop

Gonzaga is the prime example of bad mma iq ruining championship potential

Didn't Gonzaga win r1 vs Miocic before he broke his hand and gassed in r2/r3? Cro Cop, while he's got a winning record in his last 4-5 fights, has fought suspect opponents (at this moment in their careers) and his cardio has looked awful => ton of clinching. Expect Gonzaga to run through Cro Cop.

Expect Brown to be too big for Diaz and run him over for a tko. Remember, Brown has been fighting top 5 guys and looking alright in there. Just a bad matchup for Nate, I mean he usually has boxing advantage against most fighters and the cardio, but Brown has pretty good cardio himself and he will clinch a lot with Nate which will remove the advantage Nate has at distance boxing.

Aldo/Conor, interesting matchup, think Conor has a real chance here, say what you will about him, but he's passed every single test. The likes of Siver/Poirer are solid fighters who you don't simply outclass like he did. Still Aldo is Aldo, feel like every fighter that has tested his stand and trade has went out of it losing cause his chin is there and he hits harder than them. One thing Conor has going for him is that he moves forward, and most of the UFC champions are pressure fighters (Cain, Weidman, Bones, Rousey, RDA), and Aldo isn't the same kind of pressure fighter like the above. Once you figure out their tendencies (like RDA did to Pettis, Weidman to Machida/AS) and you are skillful enough to take advantage of it, you win. Now Aldo isn't only a defensive fighter, I see him take both positions, though he has that base muay thai style and his footwork is very plant-based in that he doesn't move a lot, but he has great pivots.

got Omelieczuk. think hamilton was just lucky to draw ruan potts before his inevitable cut from the ufc

the more i think about it the more im gonna go huge on aldo and laugh as its a boring fight as he just continuously shoots power doubles on conor.

So 10-1 brown has to win both FOTN and POTN? How much?

I'd definitely have picked Conor to beat Aldo pre-Mendes 2 fight but that was Aldo's best performance in a long time. That said it was in Brazil and there's always been a bit of a question on whether Aldo is juicing in Brazil, stricter testing in Nevada so that might be a consideration too that Aldo may not perform as well, also no home crowd for Aldo and the fans will be behind Conor most likely

I'll have to see the final card/interview with Diaz to show he wants it before I make that bet. Not sure about odds as I just threw a number out there at the bottom part of the betting line.

I always thought of Aldo as big for 145 but he looks shorter and smaller then Connor at the press conferences.

Aldo is more compact and muscular. Aldo is big for 145, but Conor is even bigger frame wise. Both of them could fight at 155.

I'm torn on that fight, prior to the Mendes fight Aldo hadn't impressed me in the UFC and I thought his days were numbered.

I scored the Edgar fight 48-47 for Edgar, although 48-47 Aldo was a fine score as well as it came down to r3 and r5 was competitive too from memory. Aldo grabbed the cage in the first Mendes fight to prevent the takedown and landed damaging punches after the bell in their second fight. He lost a round to Florian, faded badly vs Hominick and Lamas. I've picked against Aldo a couple of times and his opponents have come up short. I still think Mendes is a bet against Aldo at +300 in a third fight. I still think Edgar is a bet at +200 against him in a rematch. Conor... is either going to crush Aldo on the feet and make it look easy or he's going to get taken down at will, embarrassed and submitted. The third possibility is a close standup war.

If Aldo beats Conor and Edgar in a rematch convincingly he'll hold the title until he gets old. He has a murderers row of challengers though even if Mendes and Edgar are rematches

With the reduced PPV schedule this year we're getting some awesome cards and should continue to if champs stay healthy

Alright. Well if you want the bet let me know the odds/price you want.

I'm sort of torn about Aldo as well. I mean in the UFC he really hasn't looked awesome for most fights but he's fought a murderers row and beat the best twice over. He somehow always gets the job done. For that alone I think I will be him at -150 or better.

Connor is the perfect matchup for him as Aldo's td defense is so good that he's forced Edgar/Mendes to fight him on the feet which isn't their strongest facets of their game. This is Connor's strongest aspect undoubtedly so if Aldo keeps it on the feet or can't takedown Connor then Connor has a good chance of winning.

But if he wins I can't see him having the TD defense to stop Edgar or Mendes from taking him down and should be a dog vs. both of them. Styles make fights as they say.

straight up want to say the following.

I have been a boxing fan longer than I have been a MMA fan.


I promised to this good earth that I will never in my life time participate or be involved in regards to betting or watching the following "new sport".

BKB boxing.

Absolutely disgusting..... who ever is involved in bringing this about needs to be removed from this earth.

one step down from dog fighting.

What do you find objectionable about it? I haven't seen an event, but I read a detailed article about it as DirecTV is putting a big push behind it. It mostly just seems like regular boxing rules and gloves with some modifications like two minute rounds instead of three and they fight in a smallish circular area without ropes.

For Bellator I have

1.5u Held -144 average (booking a friends action for sweats)
0.5u Brooks ITD +153 (I think he'll outclass and finish Jansen)
0.5u Awad/Beltran/Brooks parlay +206 (Beltran being the big sweat, but I only had 0.5u on 5d so w/e just parlayed the fights I wanted sweats in other than Held who I have already straight up)

I'm still considering my UFN 64 Krakow action, but here are my plays for tonight's MMA action.


This is a very good card for Bellator. Hope that Carvalho keeps his word and stands with Schilling. Decent value imho on those decision props too.

Bellator 136 Risk $763.60

Joe Schilling (-125) vs Rafael Carvalho $125.00 for $100.00
Joe Schilling wins by 3 round decision (+644) $25.00 for $161.00
Alexander Sarnavskiy (-140) vs Marcin Held $140.00 for $100.00
Alexander Sarnavskiy wins by 3 round decision (+313) $40.00 for $125.20
Alexander Volkov wins inside distance (-144) $57.60 for $40.00

Joey Beltran (-121) vs Brian Rogers $121.00 for $100.00
Saad Awad (-155) vs Rob Sinclair $155.00 for $100.00

Parlays:
Fabricio Guerreiro (-215) + Brooks/Jansen Over 4½ (-170) $50.00 for $66.35
Fabricio Guerreiro (-215) + Alexander Volkov (-315) + Will Brooks (-600) $50.00 for $62.60

--

Don't think I need to force more bets here in WSOF20. Branch, Mocco and Dugulubgov are too expensive to bet straight.

WSOF 20 Risk $131.00

Dave Branch/Jesse McElligott Under 2½ (-135) $67.50 for $50.00
Nick Newell/Joe Condon Over 1½ (-127) $63.50 for $50.00

--

I took a gamble on the striker as an underdog. Checco hits hard and was very aggressive in his last RFA fight. I think Checco getting subbed two fights ago by Collier who got called up to the UFC is more forgivable than France getting knocked out a couple of times by two regional level fighters.

RFA 25 Risk $40.00

Gabriel Checco (+130) vs Francisco France $40.00 for $52.00

Big line movement. Jansen's up to +765 on 5Dimes now! I had to put a .25u on it at least even though I have Brooks in a .5u parlay:

Dave Jansen (+765) vs Will Brooks $25.00 for $191.25

Adding 0.3u on the HW Maincard u1.5 at evens for the sweat

Yoel Romero just pulled out of the Jacare fight.