I agree. This fight has nothing to do with motivation. Anderson is always motivated.

It's more about the rib injury imo than anything else. I've rewatched that fight 5-6 times and clearly something is wrong with Anderson. He had zero takedown defense and did not move well on his feet like he always does. A lot of people are disregarding the injury but the betting public unfortunately isn't.

What do you guys think of my bets for UFC 148?

2 Team Parlay- $20 to win $11.04
Forrest Griffin -300* vs Tito Ortiz
Chad Mendes -610* vs Cody McKenzie

4 Team Parlay- $10 to win $223
Chael Sonnen/Anderson Silva Over 2½ -160*
Cody McKenzie/Chad Mendes Over 2½ +170*
Fabrício Camões +245* vs Melvin Guillard
Constantinos Philippou -185* vs Riki Fukuda

4 Team Parlay- $10 to win $78
Chael Sonnen +245* vs Anderson Silva
Forrest Griffin -300* vs Tito Ortiz
Dong Hyun Kim -155* vs Demian Maia
Chad Mendes -610* vs Cody McKenzie

Single Bets- $10 each
-Khabib Nurmagomedov +160* vs Gleison Tibau
-Tito Ortiz/Forrest Griffin Over 2½ -215
-Cung Le wins KO of the Night +1000
-Sonnen/Silva Fight of the Night +175
-Griffin wins by 3 round decision +110
-Sonnen wins by 5 round decision +320

Parlays

pretty bad, pretty bad, pretty bad respectively. expect you'll go 0/3 a lot and get 2/4 max in the second one. if forrest wins you should get the first usually though

single bets

like it
dont like it
kinda like it
meh either way
better than griffin straight up probably
not a big fan as i think silvas going to win but its fine as if sonnen win its usually by dec if you're betting sonnen

Forrest looked to be in top shape and I think he's going to take this. Silva Sonnen, hard to say really how much the rib injury prevented silva from staying on his feet, I mean, Silva isn't that well known for having the best TDD. Okami and Sonnen are different kind of wrestlers and fighters so there's not much one can take from that fight.

mendes over McKenzie is a nearly 99% lock and I like Cote over Lee.

Bet Mendes, just don't see how he loses this but I guess you never know in MMA.

Like Forrest +110 by decision as well, Ortiz has won 1 fight in the last 6 years and Forrest hasn't finished anyone in a long time...

Ortiz has looked good in a lot of the fights though with the exceptions of the Hamill and Lilnog fights. Losing to rashad twice once in a close fight, no shame in that, he beat Bader, SD with forrest and a loss to Machida before that

Yeah just feel like the fight might not be much different than their last one. If Ortiz can't dominate with takedowns then Griffin is probably going to pick him apart on their feet but he won't take him out.

yeah the more i think about it the less i like my tito bet but its a smallish bet and hes a big dog so whatever its probably still marginally +EV

actually dont hate tito/forrest to not go the distance because its a decent dog and both of their chins (or in titos case his body) arent what they once were

i think you're a donk and you're going to go 0fer.

If i had access to props i'd probably prop forrest by dec at EV or better, i think he may have trouble putting away tito, but i can't see tito outstriking him for 15 minutes or winning by lnp. pretty much no shot.

Tito has two ways to win - get 2 takedowns and win 2 rounds, or catch forrest standing like he did with Bader, then pounce and finish as forrest turtles

Changed my mind a bet on the bet as Forrest seems more motivated than usual and i'm not sure Tito will show up in UFC 132 form, but I mean he's a big dog and it's only a unit, so whatever. I hope Tito can end his career on a win though.

Wish I would have bet Mendes at -575 when he was there. -700 now ugh. Just see no way he loses this though, he is literally better than McKenzie everywhere and at everything and he's a better athlete to boot.

Thinking about it, I am now pretty strongly leaning towards Mendes to get a finish here. I realize he has often not been able to finish when he dominates people, but McKenzie is just SO BAD and constantly gives up subs on the ground. So Mendes -155 is a play.

Also going Menjivar by decision +245.

Not seeing much other value on this card honestly. Really excited for the ME though. GL peeps, will be on here breaking down fight by fight most likely.

Threw half a unit on Roller at -150ish and a quarter on Costa/Fukuda to not go the distance at +177. Basically, betting on Costa to finish him standing, or Fukuda to not lay and pray

Oliveira's striking defense is just awful. Hope Izquierdo can finish him

Izquierdo did more damage from the bottom there pretty ridiculous. Oliveira is just awful

19-19 i guess.

judges have it 20-18 pretty sure

theres a great chance at least one judge has it 2-0 based on takedowns for oliveira, maybe more

xposted with kirby above, lol

and lol Izquierdo needs to learn some TDD. Guess we can zone out the next four minutes probably. Oliveira dec next

i took roller too -145 lets get this money swoopae

29-28 Oliveira but 30-27 wouldnt surprise me. What a terrible fight, neither of these guys will ever win another fight in the UFC.

im shocked all 3 judges gave him one round

jumping on roller u2.5 +190 too i mean scrub fights usually end quickly right

wow roller is TINY and alessio is HUGE. they look a full weight class apart. wouldnt have bet it if i saw the size difference. roller needs to get it to the ground asap

10-9 alessio

thats more like it 19-19

time for roller to spam takedowns, get one, and win using the bocek gameplan (or even get a finish maybe)