Only if you're betting on sportsbook...their rep isn't the best.

Sonnen is a maniac...such an awkward interview. He does sell a fight pretty damn well though.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PXzbAyc0KMA

lol? He outboxed Ring as well.

The Cote line is almost like....they know something we don't. That line is just so far off what most ppl were expecting that it makes me NOT want to bet it.

Threw down some money on Guillard, Tibau, and Sonnen. I think you guys are looking for value in some odd places.

its exactly what I was expecting

cung le is old and doesnt have much cardio

its called trolling the world and you fell for it

In a 1 round fight, Le is probably around -300 vs cote. However, this is a 3 round fight. Le is a 40 year old with pretty clear conditioning problems (he has to pace himself very deliberately to fight 3 rounds). Cote has had 24 mma fights (12 UFC fights vs a lot of tough guys) and has never been knocked out. Including vs Anderson Silva as mentioned. If Le can't knock him out (which a decent # of good strikers have been unable to do), he has to win the first 2 rounds, and survive the 3rd round vs a VERY game fighter in Cote. I'll pass either way, but that's probably why Cote is 2-1 favorite.

Guillard seems like a good bet coming off 2 losses, but it might not be profitable betting on dumb fighters long term (no offense...huge respect for all these guys. guillard is super talented, but he donates fights)

Is there a Mendes by finish line anywhere? Mckenzie is going to go at mendes right away (what he does every fight, trains w diaz bros, has a dont give a **** attitude). and this will probably open him up to a finish. And there might be good value since Mendes last 4 wins and 6/7 have all been via decision.

Surprised Menjivar is the underdog against Easton. I've been underwhelmed by Easton's performances despite his hype. But maybe he's just been running bad?

Griffin to beat Ortiz seems like a good bet. I'll have to do more research.

Chael vs Anderson....CAN'T WAIT for this fight. Rooting for Chael. Think line is spot on. Wouldn't be surprised if Anderson tools sonnen like he did vs Okami and Griffin except Sonnen probably won't quit due to embarassment like those guys and thus will be a live dog (he's willing to die in the ring to win?)

I think Habib is a sleeper pick. I started doing some research on him after watching the Shalarous fight. He's 23 years old, 17-0, Sambo champion and Judo Black belt. He's a really good grappler. I youtubed a few of his M-1 fights, I haven't seen anyone put him in a bad position yet.

I think highly of Tibau but I struggle to see him wrestle**** Habib to a decision.

sigh...yeah man, i think he'd rather fight than make movies, the man is a warrior.

wtf do u think he's doing here?

Getting tempted to play Khabib and Fukuda even though I originally liked the other side at evens of both. Costa hits hard, depends how his TDD is. We know Tibau is a 15-20 LW, so it all depends on how good Khabib is in the other one, but at +175 (and +157 for Fukuda) I feel like play both and generally go 1-1 on the dogs in pickem fights might be the way to do it

I could end up just playing 6 underdogs this card at this rate (currently on 4 underdogs)

I like Guillard and Silva too, but both are borderline unbackable favs with a distinct weakness against their opponent. Maybe parlay the two of them to get close to evens on a small sweat.

Barring anyone looking vastly out of shape at the weigh-ins tomorrow, any drastic line changes, and perhaps some between-round action, my plays for 148.

DHK -145 over Maia *
Cung Le +185 over Cote *
Tito +250 over Forrest
Alessio + 160 over Roller
Fukuda + 160 over Phillippou
Nurmagomadov +170 over Tibau
Camoes + Mendes parlay +279

* - these are the plays I've done the most research on. Not necessarily my most confident picks, but the ones I've watched the most film etc. on

Picks overall are pretty good, DHK/Maia is close to a flip imo but the more I think about it the more I might have been wrong to bet Maia after his performance against Weidman, he has the skill to win it but does he have the drive I wonder?

Tito and Cung are probably winning under half the time but enough to be +EV odds plays imo

Wish I was Capable of watching footage but I'm living like a true degen in Vegas currently. I'll be throwing down my bets tommorow definitely picking Kim not sure about the rest. Gl all

Made a half unit odds play on Khabib today, still waiting to decide on Silva, Guillard and the Costa/Fukuda fight. Added another unit on Menjivar too

That's alot of underdog faith you guys have going on

Sometimes I bet favourites sometimes I bet underdogs. I think this card a lot of the live dogs are going to win. Remember, you don't even have to win half the time to show a profit when you bet underdogs.

I feel like on this card a lot of the underdogs are closer to a coin flip than the odds are reflecting. Also a lot of the favorites I would like (guillard, silva, forrest) just aren't getting the right odds to make a play IMO.

I have big plays on Maia and Habib, small plays on Guillard and Philippou. Not too confident in the Philippou play. I'm probably gonna make a big play on Silva but I'm waiting for the line to hopefully get better.

he sure tapped last time before he could die.

"Shale no hespect me, I no hespect shale."

I'm so pumped for this fight

Ya Cung Le is a true warrior...he sure does love to fight, finding time for a whole 1 fight per year for the last 4 years -_-

I'm usually not a big underdog guy but I'm feelin some dogs on this card too. Only bet so far is Fukuda but I think Sonnen, Camoes, Maia all have decent chances to win.

Just made some small bets on forrest at -285 and costa philly at -165. also a slightly larger bet on maia at +140.

mostly because i'm a degenerate gambler.

still by far biggest bet of the night is on the spider. definitely think (and hope) it's not going to look much like the first fight, more like his most recent fight vs okami.

Like, i guess this (betting silva) is slightly reminiscent of the time i bet on BJ -300 vs edgar in the rematch...i guess there are several similarities...but, well, hopefully that's just nerves.

The whole "Silva is motivated this time" analysis in regards to why he's a good bet is very reminiscent of what penn supporters said of penn-edgar rematch.
That variable is borderline irrelevant.

Silva's possible rib injury last fight, and Chael's possible increased testosterone use last fight, are the major variables imo and makes this a tough fight to call.


Anyone know any vegas sportsbooks that take bets on round over/unders?

Not sure who will win the fight but i think betting silva at -300 is a terrible bet. Did people not see the first fight or something? Sonnen dominated silva for 4 and a half rounds. I know silva cried rib injury after the fight but frankly i think he was full of ****. Of course sonnen has bad sub defense so he could get caught again. Personally i think this fight goes about he same as the first one the only question being whether or not silva will pull another sub out of his ass Sonnen knows how to nullify silvas long range strikes and silva's thai clinch which is very strong is pretty useless in this match up. Cause anytime they clinch silva will be taken down. Then again maybe that isn't such a bad thing for him cause his best chance to win is on the ground. Anyway i like all 3 big dogs tonight as far as value goes.

Said thats what the actual line is imo in that Silva is 75% to win. Not gonna bet him unless he gets in to -200 or so though.