Wow thats a pretty strange open for the struve/miocic fight. Mo hit on the head, the guy is solid in abunch of areas but def no worldbeater/finisher. Def think the lines should be closer.

Few more opening lines

Mckenzie +350 vs Mendes -500

Menjivar -110 vs Easton -120

I like Menjivar here.

and a big wtf here

Le +200 vs Cote -260

Expected it to open around evens. I liked Cote initially but at this price I don't mind Le tbh. He did win the first round against Wandy before he got caught. In a striker vs striker battle, I think +200 is an okay price for Le (even though I was planning to get on Cote originally)

Also getting tempted to get on Marquardt at -111 vs Woodley who has never faced anyone well rounded and top 10 caliber. Feel like the late casual fan money will come in on 'the ufc guy they've heard of'. Is Marquardt's TDD good enough to keep it standing for 1.5 rounds or so? If so it feels like a good bet.

Also don't mind Rothwell 2.0 (if he's in the same shape he fought Schaub in) at +225 vs Travis Browne. The big boys hit hard, Browne lost to Kongo if it weren't for a point deduction and his biggest win is Struve (one punch ko etc). Both of them have power to end it in one punch and at HW, +225 seems like an okay price for two upper-mid level guys. Sure, Browne's striking is technically better, but Rothwell has a chin that let him beat Schaub whose striking is also technically better than his.

If fat rothwell shows up he's going to get clobbered, but if he's in shape I feel like he's 40% or so which is great at +225

I quite like Munoz at +123 too. He's looked great lately, Weidman hasn't impressed me that much compared to his hype train, and they looked to be of about similar quality overall against a common opponent in Maia, only Maia fought better against Munoz than he did against Weidman. Munoz really wants that title shot too, and he's more experienced than Weidman without being past his prime.

Munoz getting outstruck by Maia is a giant warning sign for me. Maia's improved and all, but does that give you confidence in Munoz, given that he won't have a big wrestling edge like he normally does?

Weidman's striking isn't super impressive either, and Munoz had a bad night vs Maia and still won - he outstruck Chris Leben since then as well although granted a lot of that was due to wrestling edge. I've actually bet against Munoz in his last two wins and he's proven me wrong twice and made me a believer.

He's far from a lock but I have him as a very small fav imo and he's +123, so that seems like decent value.

aren't Chael's comments like super xenophobic/homophobic? like.. i could imagine people being fired over them if they weren't big stars..

for example:

"Even if I thought I could get a submission I'm not laying underneath a grown man with my legs spread on worldwide T.V. I am a Republican and we don't do that"

"if you lay on your back with your legs wrapped around a man's head for eight seconds, that does not make you a winner. That makes... not a winner.""

Chael's a troll, his 'character' is 'the trash talker who doesnt give a ****' he's trying to mimic Stone Cold from the 'attitude era' and all that but it sells PPVs which makes him rich, so he does it.

Who cares really, he's going to get his teeth knocked out by Anderson in a few days anyway and if he doesn't then he gets to simultaneously be the biggest heel/antihero the UFC has ever had and his fans will buy the PPVs and people who hate him will buy his PPVs to cheer for the challenger

TLDR: Chael is a douchebag but he's also a smart businessman

Volkmann didn't get fired making threats against Obama and Velasquez has a Brown Pride tattoo, the UFC is more lenient than other sports on being politically correct I think. Sure they 'fired' Torres but they hired him back straight away and Evans and Griffin have got away with making questionable comments.

Basically, the sport is men beating the crap out of each other in a cage, its fanbase (even those who appreciate all aspects of the sport as opposed to the 'just bleed' fans) don't really care what the fighters say as long as they entertain us in the octagon.

I think Chael is good for MMA to be honest, even though he's a 'bad guy' and I want to see him lose. Same for Koscheck, Bisping etc.

If Chael had sponsorship deals with Gatorade and all that stuff GSP has as one of the 'faces' of the company it would be different, but he's supposed to be the bad guy/anti hero, it fits the demographic he's trying to appeal to so he has the right to say whatever he wants if he thinks it'll help him build his fanbase so long as it's not against the law.

Yea I think this is a good point. He's not as accountable to mainstream companies as a lot of other sponsored pro-athletes. Apparently rape "jokes" are the big taboo, although Torres did get re-hired after apologizing.

edit: also thanks for giving me a reasonable response, instead of saying i'm "too PC" or whatever

This is really all you needed to say.

Weidman > Munoz IMO. More disciplined on the feet, improving much more. Munoz was gettin his **** rocked by Maia in the standup. Think late money will be on Munoz so I will wait to bet this.

Marq should beat Woodley. I mean IDK how many of you watched Woodley's last fight and I'm sorry if you did...but I did. And he was DREADFUL. One of the judges literally scored for Jordan Mein doing little hammerfists and stuff off his back because Woodley provided basically no offense from top position. He just seems like one of those guys who despite all his athletic/wrestling gifts just doesn't "get" MMA the way someone like a Dan Cormier has done (seamlessly blending his wrestling with his newly learned abilities, etc).

The Cote line is disappointing but it's dropping so maybe we can hope for a big move here...

Disappointing that Mendes is -650 on 5d I was hoping for a line closer to -450. Probably will still throw him in some parlays and maybe look for some decision props as Mendes really seems to be unable to finish guys he is dominating. Should be absolutely no way he loses this, he is better everywhere by a lot.

Think I like Menjivar too but I haven't seen enough of Easton to know for sure.

Fukuda +155 on 5d, will be betting him at this price. Only question is whether to wait...

Somebody drop some knowledge on Khabib Nurmagomedov. All I know is wiki has him listed at 17-0. I feel like Tibau at -185 is a good bet against anybody I haven't heard of.

Apparently a Russian Sambo dude.

Thinking I'm going to lay money on Marquadt against T-Wood.

Nate obviously has a big experience advantage, and I think he's much better on the feet. Sonnen was 6/6 on his takedowns against Nate. More recently though, okami was soething like 1/9 on his takedowns against nate. Being taken down by sonnen is pretty common, and okami is no slouch of a wrestler, so I'm pretty confident Nate can keep this standing, and as long as this fight is on the feet, -120 is great value on Nate. I'm surprised the line is this close, I'm jumping on Nate before the name recognition from being a contender in the UFC pushes the line.

Just put down 2.2u to win 2u on Marquardt for the same reason previous poster posted.

Layoff ring rust etc, but that's more of a worry against explosive strikers than grinding wrestlers.

I think Marquardt can keep it standing long enough to get the TKO or win two rounds.

Edit: my bet actually moved the pinnacle line by 2 cents and it was only a $222 bet so if you want to do it and you're on pinn, get on fast since if the line does move towards Marquardt as we all seem to think it's going to happen pretty fast

Just threw a unit on Ortiz and Maia and Le as well. Odds plays on all 3, I think Maia is ~50% to win and the other two are dogs, but if I go 1/3 I win if it's tito and only lose slightly on Le or Maia, and if 2/3 win (which I think happens more than 0/3) then i'll book a nice win.

Probably going to get on Silva too, but waiting to see where the odds settle as I think Sonnen hype on fight day may mean I get a better price on Silva later.

Going to get on Menjivar once pinn odds are out as well.

Cote -235 Le +185. I was hoping the odds on Cote would be better, and I had planned to put in a bet on him, but unless the line shifts significantly in either direction I think I'm staying away from this fight

i was seriously expecting cung le to be the favorite here. There are all kinds of questions about cote's viability in the current state of competition, and Le is probably fighting for his career and could basically be sent back to acting for a living if he gets owned on saturday.

Pretty sure i'm picking him against cote at +200, obviously cote is dangerous and either man could win, but i do think this line is a little ridiculous.

Have also booked more than i can afford to lose on silva at -260 and -275. I'm remembering the vitor title shot and i that the late money came in on the challenger, planning to book 50% more on the day of the fight, and making a gamble that the line moves in my favor by saturday night. I don't think i really need to explain why i think this is going to go down as one of the most brutal beatings in ufc history.

In addition, i'm thinking that the maia line is a bit off. I think maia has been steadily improving his boxing, tdd, and strength, and has several viable paths to victory here. ALso believe that that people are overvaluing kim because of his strong record againts mediocre comp, and that they equate him with being the WW version of yushin okami, who imo is a significantly better fighter, and has been far more vetted. I realize that kim's win over diaz looks good on paper, but in reality that was "the old" diaz, imo, and that the main reason kim was able to overpower him was that the smaller diaz brother really has no business in the ring with someone as big as stungun. I'm gonna wait for the maia line to hopefully hit +150 and then unload, which i think is a real possibility by fight night.

I certainly think silva will win but when you consider last fight and the fact that anderson isn't some spring chicken anymore, -260/270 is a little steep for me. Yes silva seems motivated but that can be overrated sometimes as it still comes down to physical ability. Imo silva is extremely talented but lacks killer instinct that some lesser talented fighters possess.



cool fight

The more tape I watch on Le and Cote, the more I like Le at +185. In my mind I had cote looking much better against silva than he did upon rewatching the fight. He also looked pretty mediocre against lawlor, and didn't look particularily good against Belcher.

Le isn't a fan of taking big punches, and cote can definitely throw those, but I think the right line is a lot closer to even than +185 for le, so theres some decent value there.

Silva sonnen fight seems like a flip to me almost.

5 rounds there are just SO many ways that Sonnen can get finished, and his main path to victory is takedownx5, don't get caught standing, and don't get triangled or swept.

We'll see soon I guess. I'm staying away from the fight at current prices, but if the money comes in on Sonnen, i'll get on Silva.

Anyone liking Sonnen +250?

You're backing him because you think he doesn't want to be sent back to a profession where he makes more money for far less risk?

Does not compute.

Surprised people are heavy on Silva. As Devils said, **** all that other ****, it comes down to how good you are in the cage not how "fired up" you are or whatever. Look how far that got Evans against Jones. Sonnen is pretty damn good at what he does, plus he has outrageous physical strength courtesy of roids. Not really sure how this fight is gonna go but not really willing to lay significant monies either way.

At the moment i'm liking my underdog plays on Ortiz, Le, Maia and Menjivar. Feels like i'm gonna go 2/4 most of the time, and two of them are pretty significant underdogs. Definitely like Marquardt over Woodley as well.

Will be interesting to see some of the prop lines, Guillard by TKO, Silva inside distance, kinda interested in Maia by sub too if the price is good given Maia hasn't finished a fight in a while, I think Kim will take him down and if Condit swept him there's a chance Maia can too. Marquardt by TKO as well, Machida by TKO against Bader and a few others.

I'm torn on Tito at +250. Forrest definitely can't take a shot like bader does, and forrest wont be able to use his size on tito like eh did with Rich, but he's just so inconsistent in his performances

Stay far away from that fight IMO. Couple dudes who just dont give a **** any more. Ortiz can't even take a few body strikes these days.

Fukuda seems to have settled at +155. Mendes line creeping a bit closer -500, will definitely be on that price.

How good is Philippou's takedown defense? I watched Fukuda's fight with Nick Ring and thought his only skill is a double leg takedown. He's got crap striking and a weak lay-n-pray top game.

There's some arbs available on the Cote/Le fight.