Added a few more bets

1u Sanchez -166 - read the recap of his fight w Reis and remember it being really close now, I was on Reis and remember being worried during the fight. His opponent is a japanese semi-can. Would snap take Reis -300 vs his opponent so seems like a good spot.

1u Soriano +120 - think this ones a flip but kinda lean Soriano, Skellys really good and he was doing well vs Kawajiri who is also pretty good before he got taken down. Didn't watch Rosa vs Siver but read the recap etc, think this ones a flip so happy w Soriano as a small dog.

0.5u Karakanyan +107 - based on a tip, and for sweats

0.2u parlay +1994 (my 2 UFC picks above plus Bendo/Larkin/o1.5 FLW fight and then Conor and Hall as well as neither are pretty much ever losing)

Its important to know if someone is chinny or has an absurdly thick skull but machida getting hit with that elbow and being affected means little to me. He's not remotely on the Roy Nelson or Reem scale. KOd in very reasonable spots.


Eh I like all your sides, would maybe consider a Hendricks type bet or general WW one.

This.

No, he uses a tactic. Brawling doesn't really suit his skillset but that doesn't mean he can't take a shot or is scared. He ****ed Rampage up and was smart enough to outpoint and avoid the H-bomb.


Really like Tibau as well

I like when you post betting options like this better hah

I'll take Lombard/Rory for end if year title vs Hendricks/Brown. Or some type of WW division bet.

Kimbo Slice signs with Bellator http://sbnation.com/e/7319996

I'll take this for my $50 to your $62.50.

No, running away as a tactic is when he dodges you and punches you in the face, like what he did to Bader. Running away because you really, really don't want to get hit, is what he did against Rampage and Henderson when he was landing like 1 strike every 2 minutes in some stretches. Watch the guy fight and know the difference, it's not hard to see.

I don't know if Rockhold is the type that will make him skittish, but he certainly has power and seeing Machida avoid him like the plague in there would be far from shocking.

Give me -150 that Lombard/Rory don't hold the belt by Dec 31st 2015?

Up to $100.

Booked.

Karakanyan wins; adding 0.2u Straus +190 for the sweat, fight should prob be competitive so taking the dog. Either win 0.9u or 0.3u for the card roughly depending on main outcome

I had Pitbull. Kicking myself for not betting my lean on Georgi tho

Bets for Boston

Siver 3u
Perez 3u
Soriano 3u
O'Connell 3u
Cerrone 2u

Have to watch the weigh ins first, before booking them.

0.5u Shields -411. He shouldn't be so far gone that Foster KOs him 1 in 5 times and I dont see many other ways for Foster to win

Siver now up to +900 on 5Ds opened at +400

There has to be some value at this price, he's still the best wrestler connor has faced even though he's been brought in to lose.

Yeah, Siver has turned to wrestling a couple of times to win fights, and he was winning the Cub Swanson fight with wrestling till Cub turned it on. It's bad for Siver the fight is 5 rounds, will he be able to takedown Conor for 5 rounds straight and hold him down, cardio wise?

Would have to rewatch, but I think Cub slipped. That's how Sover got on top, then from there he controlled position to win the first.. Then it was over.

I'm really doubting Siver can take down Conor. His footwork may be to good for Siver's wrestling game. Then even if he can, no way does he have the cardio to do it for 5 rounds.

Really don't think this is a fight with any value at all. Just hoping Conor looks amazing so I can get a good line on Aldo.

this is darn impressive, its not the power speed aspect which is in self really bad arse, its the balance aspect, from that balance coupled with every thing else, he is able to deliver truly lethal blows.

he is impressive physically like bruce lee to some extent, I don't say or see that about many top ufc fighters. He has timing distance balance chin power speed.

I think he does all the way to the tittle fight and takes it.
No one of today is stopping him, he is a one in a couple of generations guy.
plus he has the mentality of a rage filled warrior.

I wouldn't be saving up my money to lump it on Aldo.

Does any one here really know their mix marital arts well and can rate conor McGregor, what does he do badly, the sun does not shine out of his rear but he is impressive right.

Who does Conor fight after he wipes the floor with siver inside of 150 seconds.

I hope Siver gets him down once just so we can see what he does off his back against a decent humper or that the fight goes long enough to be sure that Siver's basically never getting him down. We don't learn much of anything if McGregor just KTFOs him right off the bat.

He threw a spinning kick and Siver caught it, and that's how he's been getting takedowns, normally, when his opponents over commit and forget about the takedowns.

Booked

Siver 3u @ +900
Perez 3u @ +150
Soriano 3u @ +120
O'Connell 3u @ -188
Cerrone 2u @ +120

Love my Larkin bet size diff is bigger than expected.

I'm one of the few not on Siver +900, I just dont think he wins more than 10%ish of the time

Like my Joby Sanchez and Lorenz Larkin bets more and Bendo and Soriano slightly less over the past 24h but pretty happy with all four of them. The FLW over I think is fine even with the Holohan hype. It's FLW it goes 7:30 over half the time.

Got the 2500 8game at AM tomorrow but will try and watch what I can on the monitors in the sports bar on other side of the room

I'm one of the few not on Siver +900, I just dont think he wins more than 10%ish of the time

I was thinking about this yesterday in the shower, if conor and Siver fought ten thousand times, each time totally a fresh, new fight.


just how many times out of a hundred on average would he win?


Obviously one would hope Siver would win some but I really think it would be rare.

What is going to back up this hypothesis is when Conor demostates a vastly huge difference in speed which is very important.

Maybe once in 35 or 65 fights Siver wins one by taking him down.


Conor might even be better on the ground than his stand up game... cowboy has done that as well at some point in his past, he has a really good stand up game but then get him down and he knows what he doing down there.


No way Conor has left this out of his game, he is a total spectrum dominance fighter,


If Conor does walk through siver, really hope ideally we get to see LOTS of conor and he be given plenty of opportunity.

There are guys like this that come in and raise the bar.

He is not a stupid fighter, he knows all the ins and outs, I liked it when he said I am a master on human movement and anatomy, Tyson said that once, that he knew about the human body.


he might clip siver with that nasty forward hook kick in the first 10 seconds, if I was in siver camp I would tell him to look out for that hook kick, there is enough power in that to easily knock you the f out.


Weigh in
UFC Fight Night 59 Weigh-Ins: Conor McGregor vs. Dennis Siver
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=645UKRJFCpA

Jobby -165 (3u)
Soriano +115 (1u)
Perez +155 (1u)
Larkin -150 (5u)
Spencer -160 (3u)
Tibau -140 (2u)
Cerrone +115 (1u)

Tibau/Parke o2.5 -278 (1u)
Siver/McGreggor o1.5 +160 (1u)

So my cousin and I got really lucky w some real estate stuff, he bets heavily on soccer (like 2-4K a game) and I bet not so heavily on MMA (like $100-$400 a game).

We are starting an MMA bankroll for 2015 and I will be posting picks and results. each unit will represent 1K USD and we will try to stay away from heavy favorites (anything past -450) as much as possible and catch early lines (this event not being the best example lol). Will try to post our reasoning as much as possible.

Hope everyone makes $ this year.

Record: 0-0-0

*Larkin (-145) v Howard: 1.45u to win 1u

I want to start w a big bet as my biggest fear here is not a Howard KO but a hugfest against the cage. I believe at WW Larkin will not get wrestledfacked as much as at 185 , he should dominate in the stand up (more variety and imagination) and just needs to stay away from the clinch & cage.

*Bendo (-130) v Cowboy: 0.65u to win 0.5u

Bendo needs to make a statement or he becomes irrelevant and moves up to his natural weight class. He has the tools to beat Cerrone, has solved the puzzle 2x already and the size/strength to stay away from his submissions. Also he would rather do back-to-back camps than face Khabib.

@NickDiaz

Good luck that should be a lot of fun!

Thanx Elliot !!!! Good luck to you and the boys at TAM in 2015!!!!

Can someone reassure me about my Bendo bet?