Condit won 49-46, anyone who says 'Diaz won 1/2/5' is biased, and wrong. It wasn't close. Guida/Maynard at least was close. It's a sport, if you don't like point-fighters then don't watch the cards they're on. Personally I love watching Cruz/Edgar/Guida/Condit's stick and move style.

put down my first bet on andy today. considering -260 to be a solid deal

I like Silva to win but i'm probably not going to bet it unless he gets in towards -200ish

A more-focused/violent Silva is a scary thought, but I want someone to tell me how he's defending Chael's TDs before I go -260 on him.

Sigh @ "just bleed" fans.

Why didn't I take my own advice and roll my eyes and move along..

@Gary Idk...Sonnen's roids are scaring me, trust. Dude is getting real big. And we all saw how that worked out the first time...

Because you wanted to troll someone for their preferences....

I like to watch exciting 50/50 fights, if you want to watch hit and run style thats fine but my preference is just as valid.

Is he really that much bigger? Would love to see someone put together some before/after shots...paranoid Gary could see Chael making enough off this fight alone to retire upon, so screw the NGC, just win baby.

He's not, but he has 5 rounds that start standing to hurt him standing before he gets the TD, and a BJJ black belt if it goes to the ground. ~50% to hurt him standard and get a finish, ~50% of the time it goes to the ground he finds a way to sub Sonnen = 75% for Silva to win, making him a -300 favourite (assuming estimates are close to accurate, i'd probably have silva slightly higher to hurt him standard and maybe slightly lower to get the sub but thats roughly how i've handicapped it so far to Silva being -300ish)

Ya idk I think I might just steer clear. Soooo many variables...

Fighters whose lines I am eager to see...

Fabricio Camoes - Guillard has a very well documented history of getting subbed. Camoes as a good sized dog here could be a steal. Yes, Guillard is the stronger man/better wrestler but that doesn't always stop him from diving headfirst into guillotines for example...

Chad Mendes - Should be an absolute lock though of course I'm expecting the line to reflect this. May still be value here though as he should be like -1000 here.

Patrick Cote - Cung Le is not very good but people seem to think he is for some reason.

Anyone else have thoughts on non-lined fights on this card?

Lines i'd like to see

Guillard/Camoes - but for the other reason, I think Guillard is going to demolish him standing like he did to Roller a year ago. If Guillard's better than -200 i'm def taking him.

Mendes - he should win, but if McKenzie is +800 i'll get on him to land the guillotine. If it's Mendes -300 though that's a good bet.

Cote - if he's a dog I like him. I agree with Mo, Le's chin isn't that good, and while he has flashy offense, his fundamentals arent that good as a mixed martial artist.

I like Menjivar if he's close to evens with Easton. They're similarly ranked but Menjivar's beaten better guys and Easton went to a majority decision with Papazian who lost to a new guy or TUFer recently if I recall.

Maia/Kim depends on how motivated Maia is at WW and how he handles the cut. I don't like either side at current line.

Tibau is quite underrated imo, would need to see more of Khabibs fights though.

Costa Fukuda depends on odds, same with Alessio/Roller.

I also feel like the late 'just bleed' money is going on Sonnen but idk, if Silva gets to -200 i'll get on him

Fukuda has impressed me so far while Costa has looked good his last two fights after struggling with Jorge Rivera and Nick Catone. I think this line will be close, if anyone's better than +140 or so here there should be value.

Kim/Maia is one of the more intriguing fights on the card. Kim's striking looked WAY improved in his last outing but Maia's boxing is quite decent these days and I expect this fight to mostly be on the feet. If Maia can get takedowns though he should be able to positionally outgrapple Kim.

I honestly wouldnt be surprised to see either fighter win it standing, or to see Maia get the sub, or Kim to lnp a 30-27. I nearly bet Maia a while back but then decided not to.

Costa made a believer out of me in his last 2 fights after looking horrible against Rivera (which led to me betting against him against Hamman I think it was). After taking down McGee, I think he can beat Fukuda probably, but I need to watch more of Fukuda's fights. I agree there's probably value if either is a decent dog.

Out of curiosity how do you handicap Guillard/Camoes? I think Guillard -250 is the actual line value wise, but I expect Guillard to open at -180 to -220 if I had to guess. I kinda expect Guillard to be working on better gameplanning and be training to fix his leaks this time, and I think he'll have a good showing.

I think Guillard is the superior fighter by quite a bit, but his susceptibility to chokes worries me too much to take him if he's as big a favorite as -250. His last 7 losses have come by different chokes, with 3 of his last 4 by rear naked, while 5 of Camoes wins are by some form of choke.
That being said, Guillard has the edge just about everywhere else. He's probably not a bad bet around -250, but I think I'm going stay away form that fight.

I'm hoping Cote is a dog against Le, if so I think I'll be putting a decent sized bet on him. Cote's got the power and striking to hang with Le, and has never lost from strikes (1 tko loss was his knee injury vs Silva). Even as far as -200 I think the smart money is on Cote.

I'd say Guillard -200 and expect him to be like -270 at least.

You can't ever ever ever say you expect Guillard to fight smart/fix his leaks. If it hasn't happened 40 fights or whatever in, it will never happen. ESPECIALLY now that he left Jackson's.

What's Kim's path to victory? Maia's striking is nothing special but it's probably better than Kim's. Can Kim push Maia against the cage for 15min? Can he get takedowns and not get schooled by Maia's BJJ?

This is a dream matchup for Maia. Line is way off.
Give me Chael here. Anderson has 11 months off, coming off major surgery, no thanks. Guys get whooped by Silva on the feet because they engage in fighting at a distance and he makes them look stupid. Chael likely gets owned that way, but that will not be how he fights Anderson, and Anderson can't stop it.

Kim has a VERY good top game, and if he goes for takedowns I'm fully confident he will secure them. Other than being swept once by Condit, I haven't seen anything to indicate that he has trouble with BJJ fighters. Of course Maia is an entirely other class of BJJ, giving him a chance for a sub at any time (only reason I wouldn't like Kim if he were beyond -200).

I like Kim's ability to grapple for control, grinding out points there, and I also like him in the stand-up partially because it's Maia's first fight at WW, and we don't know how his (already lackluster) speed will hold up with the lighter guys.

The cut also brings in questions of cardio if kim can grind out the first 1.5-2 rounds.

I don't think Kim can hold Maia down and grind him out. Weidman has a great top game and Maia just popped up after his takedowns. I'm more worried about Kim just pushing him up against the cage and holding him there.

It's weird because Maia's losses against Munoz and Weidman were competitive fights against top 10 MWs. I even thought he beat Weidman. Now he's dog against a guy who isn't even a top 20 WW.

^ This is true. Maia's overall grappling game is excellent. If anything, were I Kim backer, I would be more worried about Maia finding a takedown on Kim. He has shown sterling top control and the fight IQ to grind his way to safe W's in the past. However, as Jaymun said, there are legitimate questions about Maia's cardio and speed. We have seen other fighters who drop weight (Ross Pearson is a recent example) have great difficulty with smaller, faster fighters. It's the same problem with all the people who think Nelson should be at 205, he would be FAR too slow.

Shogun only -290 against Vera

I'm not too worried about speed against Kim. Kim is a very big WW and is slow and plodding himself.

I know Maia gassed in the Weidman fight where he said he had the flu or w/e. Has he gassed in any other fights? The weight cut is a factor but I'm not overly worried about it.

Yes Maia has shown solid cardio in the past, many fights that went the distance...

Griffin Ortiz is only -155 to go the distance...any thoughts on this line? First instinct was to jump all over it.

Ortiz has shown he's weak to body shots and he did put Bader out whose chin is probably as good as Forrest's at this stage of their careers.

If I had to pick it'll go to decision, but i'm not super excited about that line.

Also... here I was worried about not being able to bet Struve in his next fight as I expected him to open at around evens.

Miocic is a boss but...

Struve is +205.

Time to bet Struve. Again. I think Miocic is maybe 50-55% to win this one, but YET AGAIN the value is on Struve. 3-0 +15u or so betting on Struve so far in thread. Keep it coming! For some reason even though it feels like Miocic should be maybe -120, I feel like Struve is going to win. Just a gut feeling that he's getting better, and is going to make a run towards the top ten over the next few years. In fact, if he beats Miocic, i'd say it's fair to call him a top 15 HW, maybe 12th-13th even.

I expect Struve will pull guard, honestly. Miocic hasn't been tested on the ground yet. It's yet another +EV Struve bet. Not to mention he's working on his striking inbetween fights, and filling out his frame towards a full 265

Miocic is the more skillful all around fighter but I don't think he deserves to be -260 here, that seems a bit absurd. He has similar defensive issues to Struve on the feet.