MMA Thread - Page 1085 - Sports Betting - SportsBetting Strategy and Forum

Yeah. Misses weight quite often :/

She is either attempting to much, or doing it poorly. It hasn't effected her in a single fight though (at least in a major way). Even in her previous fight she should've won the third round.

Probably should worry me more than it does. I expect this to be slow paced anyways, and I just think she is going to be to good for her opponent to be able to push the pace later in the fight.

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01-02-2015 , 12:35 PM

#27103

wpd5

centurion

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 150

Quote:

Originally Posted by SwoopAE

Sherdog and Wikipedia are both good yeah

Gonna do 0.5u Dufresne -172 on yoyobo's recommendation should be a fun sweat

Also 0.25 Akhmedov -161 for sweats and narrowly like that side I think

Really like both of these.

I have 2u on Akhmedov at the -135 open and 4u on him at -160
have 4 units on Dufresne -175

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01-02-2015 , 04:55 PM

#27104

JimGunn

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 1,898

Quote:

Originally Posted by wpd5

Really like both of these.

I have 2u on Akhmedov at the -135 open and 4u on him at -160
have 4 units on Dufresne -175

You added that much more on Akhmedov when the price got worse? He has power, but he also gets hit a lot too. Nilsson is a live dog here and I wouldn't put that much confidence in Akhmedov. I personally bet that the fight won't start round 3 to cover either guy finishing- the Dagestani by KO or the Swede by sub- and a small bet on Nilsson by sub at good odds.

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01-02-2015 , 05:28 PM

#27105

wpd5

centurion

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 150

Quote:

Originally Posted by JimGunn

I think Nillson is not a ufc caliber fighter and I thought I would take Akhmedov at -225 so I got the max I could down at the -135 open and then the rest down as soon as limits were increased. Maybe Nillson is better than what he has shown but I like this spot at the price

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01-02-2015 , 05:46 PM

#27106

TheGodson

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2013 Posts: 3,072

Thanks a ton for the lists!

Here are my picks what do you think?

-205 on Alexander Gustafsson
-105 on Norman Parke
+600 on Dennis Siver

I have a hunch I'm gonna make a lot oh money$$

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01-02-2015 , 06:06 PM

#27107

SwoopAE

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 22,249

W, lean Parke but could go either way, L imo

glgl

Also you can get way better than +600 on Siver if you havent bet already

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01-02-2015 , 06:18 PM

#27108

TheGodson

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2013 Posts: 3,072

Crap! Already bet. Hopefully he still wins though.

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01-02-2015 , 06:54 PM

#27109

SwoopAE

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Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 22,249

I'm a Siver fan, but he won't. I don't think he has the hand/leg speed necessary to outstrike Conor. I think it'll look a lot like Siver vs Cerrone only ending via TKO (punches) instead of a head kick. If I had to guess Siver wins maybe 1 in 8 times here?

The Poirier fight has made me a believer in McGregor, I don't think he's losing to anyone outside of the top 3 (Aldo, Mendes, Edgar) and even then he's live.

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01-02-2015 , 09:10 PM

#27110

SwoopAE

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Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 22,249

wow, huge and sudden steam on Jury... I wonder if they know something I don't...

about to watch live weigh in, maybe cerrone's had a bad cut?

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01-02-2015 , 09:21 PM

#27111

SwoopAE

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 22,249

Half unit on Jury +135 just in case the price keeps dropping, was only ever going small on him. I still think casual money will be on Cerrone but I can just increase it to a full unit and change if it goes back to +168 or w/e

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01-02-2015 , 09:29 PM

#27112

SwoopAE

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 22,249

Dufresne missed weight but apparently not that unexpected

Cormier seems like such a massive dick between this Jones feud and the Cummins one. Hope he can get it done tomorrow against Cormier. First time i've cheered for Jones since the Shogun fight

Last edited by SwoopAE; 01-02-2015 at 09:35 PM.

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01-02-2015 , 09:36 PM

#27113

just_mo

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 8,699

I might bet Cerrone now? Holy Jury money.

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01-02-2015 , 09:38 PM

#27114

TomCowley

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 5,649

Quote:

Originally Posted by SwoopAE

138 and fairly quickly declined to try to make 136.

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01-02-2015 , 09:58 PM

#27115

Sect7G

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 11,234

Quote:

Originally Posted by SwoopAE

I find him to be quite a likeable guy who is married with kids and was content to just go about his business until the head lean by Jones.

Jones as a person I have very little respect for. His interviews are just bad acting as the wholesome intelligent portrayal he puts on is just a ruse that have made many of his peers dislike him.

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01-02-2015 , 10:02 PM

#27116

Daliman

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Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 14,911

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sect7G

This appears to be the case in my experience as well. I work out at an MMA gym and most of the guys respect the hell out of Jon Jones but hate him.

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01-02-2015 , 10:35 PM

#27117

Swiiftx

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 7,991

Jones strikes me as a manchild, pretending to be a man, cormier as a senior who is a tad too serious at times.

Quote

01-02-2015 , 10:58 PM

#27118

elliot10181

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 2,720

Quote:

Originally Posted by SwoopAE

wow, huge and sudden steam on Jury... I wonder if they know something I don't...

about to watch live weigh in, maybe cerrone's had a bad cut?

Cerrone mentioned an injury in one of the interviews so it's likely that. Not sure too much should be read into it though.

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01-02-2015 , 11:26 PM

#27119

TomCowley

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 5,649

As a person, Jones seems like Floyd Mayweather Jr. lite to me.

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01-03-2015 , 12:52 AM

#27120

yoyobo

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 4,140

Dufresne -175 (3u)
Nilsson +145 (1u)
Castilio -230 (2u)
Burkmam +550 (0.5u)
Gaudinot +550 (1u)
Tavares +115 (4u)
Cerrone -190 (1u)
Jones -165 (3u)

Damn via dec +850 (1u)
Tavares via KO +430 (1u)
Cerrone via KO +375 (1u)
Jones via sub +600 (0.5u)
Dufresne/Reneau u1.5 +300 (0.5u)

o1.5 subs on main card +375 (0.5u)
Tavares POTN +1200 (0.5u)
Jones/Cormier FOTN +200 (0.5u)

Feel really good about this one.

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01-03-2015 , 01:31 AM

#27121

SwoopAE

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 22,249

4u Jones -159
3u Castillo -215
1u Marquardt -129
1u Gaudinot +566
1u Garbrandt +170
0.8u Lombard ITD -130
0.5u Castillo ITD +236
0.5u Dufresne -172
0.5u Jury +135
0.25u Akhmedov -161
0.25u Cannonier/Jordan u1.5 -146
0.25u Lombard -512

Also feel pretty good about this one.

Quote

01-03-2015 , 01:42 AM

#27122

JimGunn

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 1,898

Quote:

Originally Posted by yoyobo

What sportsbook has POTN props available? I always bet a FOTN and Fastest KO & Fastest Sub props at 5Dimes.

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01-03-2015 , 02:00 AM

#27123

mixt

enthusiast

Join Date: Nov 2013 Posts: 53

Already have money on Jury, Cormier and Tavares (luckily got on Jury before the steam).

Do you guys think value is in Jury by Sub +1200?

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01-03-2015 , 02:27 AM

#27124

SwoopAE

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 22,249

I'm curious too for POTN. What price is Lombard for that prop?

Quote

01-03-2015 , 02:52 AM

#27125

JimGunn

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 1,898

Quote:

Originally Posted by SwoopAE

I'm curious too for POTN. What price is Lombard for that prop?

Imagine on the events when they do away with FOTN awards as they have done semi-frequently lately and award four POTN bonuses instead. I wonder if they honor all those bets?

On a tangentially related note, I wish I could take advantage of some of the special or exotic props that Unibet and some other Euro books have like Fighter X gets a takedown or who gets more takedowns etc but alas, as a U.S. bettor I am mostly limited to 5Dimes & Bookmaker's options.

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