MMA Thread - Page 1070 - Sports Betting - SportsBetting Strategy and Forum

Happy to see late money coming in on Carla. Was probably betting against the steam either way assuming it was enough of a line movement.... Really wanted to be betting on rose instead though lol.

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12-12-2014 , 08:00 PM

#26727

LasFuentes

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Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 1,889

Kinda want to bet Noons, you guys seem to forget Cruickshank's Makdessi fight. Could easily see a Noons jabfest taking over after the 1st, I'll wait a bit closer to fight time I guess, bet if it gets a bit better.

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12-12-2014 , 08:05 PM

#26728

RB87

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Join Date: Nov 2013 Posts: 1,210

Hoping Magana gets beatdown

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12-12-2014 , 08:07 PM

#26729

yoyobo

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Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 4,140

Cruikshank has made pretty big strides since that fight. Also noons is a boxer past his prime that will get smashed at range. where makdessi is a very diverse striker who was very comfortable fighting at range.

Think the Cruikshank/Koch fight best shows the improvements since that fight anyways. Also he dropped Masvidal 2 fights ago, who is a very good striker himself.

Edit: also last time out he showed great fight IQ by dominating nijokuani with his wrestling. (A game plan Cerrone proved to be successful vs Noons(

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12-12-2014 , 08:12 PM

#26730

SwoopAE

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Was hoping Torres would grapple more for the finish, but she did get a knockdown. Hopefully she can get a bit more aggressive.

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12-12-2014 , 08:15 PM

#26731

LasFuentes

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I put a small play on Noons +190, not that confident just worth a look type bet since I see a clear path for Noons to win. Don't think any further fights show him making much progress towards sharpening his boxing, and this is coming from someone who is up like 3-1 or 4-1 betting Cruickshank (lost the Martins fight).

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12-12-2014 , 08:17 PM

#26732

SwoopAE

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+205 line looking about right for the u2.5. Couple close calls but nothing super super close yet

Hopefully we get there but not looking good

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12-12-2014 , 08:24 PM

#26733

SwoopAE

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Torres could have finished with GnP I think, just the women are too small to have much KO power at that size I guess standing.

Pretty bad card so far down about 3u. Major plays both still to come though. I'm tempted to fire even more on Randa after that fight, beating Tecia is just impressive

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12-12-2014 , 08:26 PM

#26734

LasFuentes

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Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 1,889

Quote:

Originally Posted by SwoopAE

I bet the over w 1 hit on TT by decision (line didn't reset before fight time :\ cause I would've bet a lot on this)

Don't like it much in hindsight, but I mean TT has not hurt anyone prior to this fight in forever. She's the definition of a (standing) point fighter and I've been following her since Invicta. Why did you think u2.5 was a good play w info available?

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12-12-2014 , 08:27 PM

#26735

SwoopAE

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Lots of 10-8s being scored tonight.

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12-12-2014 , 08:27 PM

#26736

RB87

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Join Date: Nov 2013 Posts: 1,210

Yeah you don't see my knockouts in the lighter weights with women.
Torres looked really sharp and has that explosive movement that is really rare in female fighters she looks like an Olympic sprinter. I reckon she'll be challenging for the title within the next year or two.

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12-12-2014 , 08:29 PM

#26737

SwoopAE

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Quote:

Originally Posted by LasFuentes

Why did you think u2.5 was a good play w info available?

Price mostly. +205 in a fight she's going to dominate is tempting. I did think she'd land more takedowns (like she did at the end) and get the stoppage via ground and pound or sub if she got it. I didn't expect a finish standing very often just thought she'd be in dominant top position or take the back a bit more

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12-12-2014 , 08:31 PM

#26738

yoyobo

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Don't think unders are very good bets on female fighters, unless there is a dominate grappler in the fight.

Sub/GnP is how the majority of the finishes happen.

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12-12-2014 , 08:31 PM

#26739

SwoopAE

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This one here is a case of her opponent being finishable (finished in 60% of losses) and much much smaller. I think this will look a lot like Michelle Waterson's last title defense against that really small older asian chick she beat where she just gets dominated by a larger fighter until she loses due to accumulation of damage.

Ended up adding another 0.2 for 0.7u total on under here, let's go Jojo!

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12-12-2014 , 08:33 PM

#26740

SwoopAE

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Quote:

Originally Posted by yoyobo

Don't think unders are very good bets on female fighters, unless there is a dominate grappler in the fight.

Sub/GnP is how the majority of the finishes happen.

I agree, and I thought Tecia would go for more takedowns when she was dominating, I didn't expect a finish standing. Didn't expect to win the bet over half the time, but only needed to hit 32% or so, thought Tecia finishes 30%ish probably against Magana but maybe not and then suckout equity if Magana wins, random injury, etc.

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12-12-2014 , 08:39 PM

#26741

yoyobo

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Hopefully jojo gets a finish here. Would like to see her get right back in the title picture. Think she needs to be dominate here to get that.

Last edited by yoyobo; 12-12-2014 at 08:46 PM.

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12-12-2014 , 08:45 PM

#26742

SwoopAE

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Ok this was a terrible bet even if it gets there. No more womens 115 unders for me.

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12-12-2014 , 08:49 PM

#26743

SwoopAE

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Jojo is never beating Tecia, Carla, Rose or Randa if she fights like this

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12-12-2014 , 08:51 PM

#26744

SwoopAE

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Calderwood can finish her if she just uses her strength to throw her around and win via gnp/sub

If she stands jabbing she just wins a boring 30-27

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12-12-2014 , 08:54 PM

#26745

LasFuentes

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Lol, grabbed JoJo live at -800 and -850 at the end of the 2nd.

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12-12-2014 , 08:56 PM

#26746

SwoopAE

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lol finally goes for a takedown 14 minutes into the fight. immediate threatening to finish. if she did this a minute into each round shes a huge fav to finish

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12-12-2014 , 08:57 PM

#26747

SwoopAE

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Quote:

Originally Posted by LasFuentes

Lol, grabbed JoJo live at -800 and -850 at the end of the 2nd.

lol nice catch enjoy your free money, prob more like -3000

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12-12-2014 , 09:00 PM

#26748

yoyobo

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Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 4,140

Just read Diaz missed weight by 4lbs!? Has he ever even missed weight before?

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12-12-2014 , 09:00 PM

#26749

SwoopAE

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10-8 rounds like crazy today.

Adding an extra unit on Markos because I want to be up for the card when she wins

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12-12-2014 , 09:03 PM

#26750

RB87

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Join Date: Nov 2013 Posts: 1,210

Quote:

Originally Posted by SwoopAE

10-8 rounds like crazy today.

Haha another one, 10-8 rounds are normally super rare. Is that 3 already tonight?

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