Had 48-47 Guida by usual UFC judging but felt Maynard deserved the win.

Looks like lessons were learned from the Condit Diaz fight. Will make fighters think twice about using the hit and run for the easy win

When the decision does not go your way it is not always bull****. You **** the bed on this card and the refs had nothing to do with it. Guida refused to engage at all for 25 minutes and he is your winner. Your bets cloud your judgement.

Cub comes through with his more diverse and athletic striking. Like I said earlier, I usually agree with you but this fight seemed perfect for Swanson IMO. Pearson spends too much time flat footed in the cage.

How did Guida do more damage to Maynard? It was pitter pat get on your bike. Maynard is the fighter who was digging his hips in and landing solid punishing punches. Very few of them, but at least he was throwing with bad intentions. Guida didn't get his face lumped up by security. It was Maynard hitting him as he ran away.

I defended Condit when he moved in and out versus Diaz but Guida just moved out and out whiling landing nothing of value.

This, saying this was akin to Condit is laughably shortsighted. Condit was actually, you know......LANDING STRIKES. Guida did NOTHING. That was a truly awful fight, I honestly feel really bad for those fans who shelled out hard earned dollars to watch that live. Watching something like that makes me feel incredibly fortunate for the fact that I got Sanchez vs Ellenberger while some unlucky fans got...that.

I felt the Pearson stoppage was premature as well, and he was definitely winning the 2nd round (after dropping the first) before he got clipped. I've seen way worse stoppages than that so I won't complain too much. Regardless, Swanson was clearly the right side of the bet so props to people to who had him. Excellent call by ashe and Jaymun. I just watched him lose so much in WEC that I didn't believe he was any good but he has proved me wrong. Extremely entertaining fight though.

I literally told my friend to fight me if I ever bet on Hatsu Hioki again. The guy just doesn't seem to care, I don't get it. He just...stopped fighting. Simply amazing. Probably the best guard in the sport though.

Stout winning with wrestling was kind of cool, I thought Fisher would have a slight edge in grappling but Stout showed he was willing to fight smart.

Maynard/Stout parlay was my biggest bet by far (I tilt doubled my wager after Hioki and Pearson lost lol -_-) so I ended up making a unit on the night, feel pretty fortunate.

Any late thoughts on tonight's card?

Heavy on Rich. That's about it for me.

I thought Franklin would be little closer to -200 by now, holding steady at -170. Possible that is the home court advantage taking effect?

I think Wandy is gonna have to get lucky tonight, Franklin gonna fight smart, technical and efficient. Imo Silva will gas before Franklin. I'm goin heavy on current line.


edit: -160 now.....shows my capping skills

I already have a unit on Rich, you guys are makin me consider going heavier....

Hoping Franklin can make one more run. TKO round 3.

I wouldn't bet on this angle at all but it does make me leery of betting Franklin...

This fight is of no consequence, is a very weak main event in a market UFC is trying to penetrate and involves a local legend. Not saying its rigged but if you were gonna rig a fight, it would be one like this.

At the very least, Franklin is going into a lions den.

This is my prediction as well.

Franklin down to -155 on 5d now, money steadily coming on Silva by the looks of it.

I don't really know how to cap this card because I didn't watch the season. Sounds like this Ferreira is a lock from what people are saying. I honestly think Werdum might be worth a bet even tho the line is so steep. I just don't see how he could lose this...I don't even see lay n pray being a route to victory here. I mean Big Country is a BJJ black belt and he wanted NOTHING to do with Werdum's guard. Maybe a prop on Werdum by decision? Russow's chin is obviously godly so if this stays on the feet it's unlikely Werdum will finish him.

WHY DO PEOPLE KEEP BRINGING UP CONDIT DIAZ AS A ROBBERY IT WAS ****ING 49-46 AND CONDIT DIDNT RUN ITS CALLED MOVEMENT SO YOU DONT GET PUNCHED IN THE FACE

stoppage was a lil premature on pearson, but lets all be honest, the ref did him a favor.

i had bet gray and TWAS on this card, and, while obviously i was satisfied with the outcome, i dont think they were the greatest bets ever.

going into it, i figured that gray would fight a lil smarter, and really, guida's plan was superior to his imo. Laying -275 on what ended up being a split decision is not a very good deal, even if it turned out okay this time. fwiw i think gray won the fight 49-46 but obv biased and i don't like bike riders.

-170 on twas was okay i guess, but i was definitely sweating it in the first, though my co-bettor said his eyes never got glassy, the sub attempt against him was never tight enough to finish, and he was never worried, idk, line seemed about right in retrospect.

elliot is one of thoe Diaz guys IIRC. Just gotta roll your eyes and move on.

@Dj I feel Ebersole was a good bet in retrospect. I mean I had considered betting him but ended up passing. He was pretty damn dominant in those last two rounds, he just got caught in the first by a fluke strike. I gotta say Ebersole made a fan of me last night, he goes for your life when ground and pounding...fun to watch. (Not trying to pull a Swoop WRT to calling a key strike a fluke But that was like the single most solid strike I've ever seen Waldburger land and he never really threatened Ebersole on the feet after that)

as for tonight, i can't quite bring myself to lay -500 on the buttscooting werdum...i mean, obv he has a +4 reach adv and is the more experienced and high level fighter...but man that is some serious chalk against a legit up and comer. I think i might just try to get +450 on russow for a small bet against a friend and then feel stupid when he gets subbed in the first.

wandy vs ace is obviously a pretty interesting matchup. At first i was all over silva here, but the more i consider that:

A) ace has +2inch reach

B) wandy's chin has been gone for some time, but he never seemed to realize that and fight more defensively

C) ace should have a slight size advantage in the cage

D) ace has higher fight IQ and gameplanning (and overall smarts)

E) the only real advantages i can see for wanderlei here are the dubious ones of home field adv and the adv of being more of a sociopath, and i think ace's determination and fight iq will largely negate both.

at first i had seen this matchup as one that was probably going to go to a decision, but the more i think about it, the more i think franklin by tko is going to be as much as a 1/3 chance outcome, and he will also win the majority of decisions, so overall it oughta be more like -240 ace, and so -170 on franklin is probably the bet. the late line movement on wandy isnt surprising tho, as he is one of the most beloved and iconic fighters in the sport, and this very well may be his retirement fight. for the informed mma bettor tho, makes me think u might wanna double down on ace if u can get that juicy -155ish lines some books are now offering.

i pretty much agree with all of this, and i'd bet on ebersole again at similar odds against either middle tier guys or unproven up and comers. hopefully he learned his lesson last night about avoiding random counters against guys with power.

I'd be worried about home field decisions but i'm leaning towards betting Rich at the last second as all the late money is coming in on Wandy. Rich is -140 now, I think I can get him at -120 maybe. I see it going like the Liddell fight a bit, Wandy has his moments in r1 then gets caught late in R1 or sometime in R2 and his chin fails him.

If Rich is serious about making a run at MW he'll win this. If he's only showing for the paycheck he'll lose basically.

May get on Bodao or Wolverine as well if the odds get better. Kinda tempted to take Pepey as well as such a big dog. Jason's good but getting overrated imo and is a huge fav.

Edit: added a unit on Bodao and half a unit on Pepey

Edit2: actually decided I like Bodao more, made it 4.5u on him total. He impressed me on the show and Macarro didn't and i think he wants it more. Price is decent too he's only a small fav.

-125 seems like a good price. Anyone else who watched TUF Brazil like or dislike it?

B is the main thing for me. Rich has never had the greatest chin out there but Silva's chin has eroded to a worrying point. Plus, Franklin has pretty decent power.

I'm going with a half unit bet on Werdum by decision actually. I could obv see a sub happening but as I said before Russow's chin is godly and I don't see him staying in Werdum's guard. Since he has the wrestling advantage, I think theres a good chance this will be mainly contested on the feet.

@Swoop Franklin always shows up in shape, no real worries there.

I'm gonna follow you guys on Franklin. More of a bet against Wandy as it should be his last fight. I don't see what chance he has other than landing a haymaker (a legit chance at that)

Wandy's best chance is to go nuts and try for a finish in the first.

Sick use of a 10-10 round there to make the first fight a draw, I thought Arantes had it too but Viera did land the biggest strike of the second round so fair enough.

I'm pretty heavy on Bodao and will be on Franklin, considering a play on Pe De Chumbo, but not sure. Everyone says Massa is good but I don't see it and he's undersized, and PDC takes his training very seriously.

added a couple units on Pe De Chumbo now that he's into -110. I'll add more if Bodao wins probably. Size + experience counts for a lot against Massaranduba here imo. He should take it by decision if I had to guess.

Love these TUF Brazil guys. He was down 2 rounds, came out like he wanted it and got the TKO. Galeto looked pretty good too, for the first 2 rounds anyway. They should both get contracts, they'll tear through lower level UFC guys.

franklin into -135 on pinn. i'm going to wait though think i can get him at -120ish later, hopefully anyway

Close round, I think Bodao got it in the last 30 secs but Macarro was ahead until then. Could go either way.