Won 2 and a bit units, shame i've been betting small on cards i'm crushing and medium to big on cards ive lost on lately

Going to watch some of the fights later on

Edgar/Mendes the 2 biggest threats to Aldo, Mendes having best punchers chance and Edgar being able to outscore Aldo if he puts on a fast pace from the start. Think Edgar could get the shot right now tbh, people have done less to get a rematch titleshot (think Sonnen only had 2 beat 2 guys). But I might give it to Conor just bc he hasn't fought Aldo yet.

Thanks for this post, woke me up to make the bet, honest insight posted and paid off, this is what this thread is about

thumbs up sir.

Happy to help

Good to see it helped make some money

Yeah, Barboza Green spot on there. It was a boxer chasing a powerful muay thai guy. Green didn't look like he had anything in store for Barboza.

Won my bet on Edgar and has a small arb on Benividez made 1.14 units for the unit. Edgar did look great but Connor's getting the next title shot no doubt if he beats Siver.
Took Travis Browne at -270 for 5 units think he'll close at like -350 to -400 so will be able to hedge some for a better line by fight time.

Nobody else took Barboza in play -240//-270 after the 2nd at 5dimes? I think it's gotta be the most off lines I've ever seen for these. I mean with how ******ed the judging was last night, it's conceivable some ****** might have given Green the second if he was looking away when he got rocked and dropped (since I assume some judges just zone out at times hence some scores).

But in all seriousness I feel that line should've been more like -3000 or worse.

Not saying it didn't look good, but Barboza looked to be fading plus dat chin

Seriously?

Landed virtually every significant strike of the fight and forced green to switch stances leading to him losing his offence.

Green doesn't ko anyone, chin never at risk

Don't think I said barboza didn't look amazing, he's a spectacular striker and kept the distance so well. But from what I recall watching the fight, he slowed down a bunch, decreased volume, looked to breathe a bit heavier. And I don't think you need ko power to ko barboza. -3000 would've been nuts imo, even though he ended up coming out in round 3 still throwing fire and doing everything right.

Oh didn't realize you were commenting on the -3000

Yes that makes no sense at all, by round 3 we were likely around -700/800 in terms of flow of the fight, damage done and historical chance of a finish.

Edit: Barboza's chin although not excellent isn't terrible one tko/ko loss in 17 fights isn't bad. He's been dropped a few times but only finished with strikes once. Cerrone and castillo dropped him but I think the weak chin narrative is overplayed especially as both of those guys have one shot KO's on their records.

-3000 might be pushing it, but I was factoring in juice too. So I was expecting Green to be like +1200 and Barboza -3000 which I think is on par w the in play juice.

Would any of you guys take Green at +1200 after the 2nd, or see it as a +ev wager at that point?

0.5u pettis -180 and 2.4u schaub browne u1.5 -113 think browne kos him in r1 and if schaub wins itll be a r1 ko or sub a bit too. Think the under closes at -145 or more since hw unders get steamed a lot esp w schaubs chin. Going small on lawler too but think i get +200 a lot so ill wait and if i dont ill just leave it. Will take ferguson over trujillo too probably, chin and better technique = the woman beaters in for a rough night

Also would love a decent price on ashlee evans smith

I've been following AE-S's career since she beat up Fallon Fox. Stoked to finally be able to wager on her next fight.

I would have hedged at +1200 to ensure profit and remove risk of fluke finish/crazy judges

4-1+9.69
pettis-195

Added 2.9u on Ferguson -224. I think i'll be able to hedge a bit of it off and end up with around 1.5u or so on him at a really good price which is about what I want. Best price on the market by far and I think the money comes on Ferguson since he's got a chin and better technical striking and wrestling than Trujillo

Pretty sure White, Sergio Pettis, both TUF winners, Duffee and Faber are all 'supposed' to win their fights too if opening prices on any of them are reasonable.

So far I have

2.9u Ferguson -224
2.3u Schaub/Browne u1.5 -113
0.5u Pettis -180
0.3u Pettis/Melendez u4.5 +145

I think i'll add AES and Lawler too but waiting for any decent price and better price respectively

Think ferguson is a really good bet. I have him closer to -350 on this one.

Yeah my gut says -300 but my brain says he's better everywhere and how does Trujillo win if he doesn't KO him?

I'd expect the line to close closer to -280 or -300 so I can arb some if I choose to probably or just let it ride if he looks good at weighin

Spread my bets around a few bookmakers but put down 10 units on Conor at -600. I know its a while away but it will close at minimum of -800 probably higher so should be able to leave a unit on and get like -150 or just freeroll it.

Anybody have any thoughts on fading Todd Duffee? He's been out a two years with illness and is still nearly a -300 fav will probably wait till weigh in but the more stringent drug testing might have any effect on him too.

At first glance it looks like all of the favorites should win, only two dogs I'm looking at are maybe Melendez and Lawler?

Same

Still questioning if Hendrix will be at 100% the week before fight was booked he said he couldn't be ready until Jan/feb due to bicep and then when Weidman pushed back they announced it. Lawler has been active and looking good so offers some value.

http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2014/9/17...til-march-2015

http://www.mmafighting.com/2014/9/22...w-ufc-181-main

Think this is a good call with his time out

Alex White maybe at -140? Seems to have a much better record than Collard and a couple okish wins

AES looks ok at -170ish hopefully Pennington gets some bets as the bigger name

Ferguson out to -243 so my bet looking ok there steam wise