Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Sports Betting Discussions related to wagering on sporting events.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 11-08-2014, 09:22 AM   #26226
SwoopAE
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
SwoopAE's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Australia
Posts: 20,948
Re: MMA Thread

Added another 2u on Shogun at -163. I liked -180, so I definitely like -163 and looking at Shogun's list of losses the only guy he's lost to who is comparable to OSP is Chael, and Chael's takedowns are far more explosive

OSP is immensely physically talented and Shogun's body is slowly going but Shogun isn't quite finished yet (he hasn't lost to anyone who isn't top 15 in the UFC, i'd argue he's 4-6 vs top 15 guys if we count both Machida fights as wins and we're not counting Vera or Te Huna as top 15) and he also ran a bit below EV vs Hendo, like if they fought a third time I still don't hate Shogun at evens despite being 0-2 - Liddell wasn't finished when Shogun beat him, then Forrest and Machida twice are good wins and Vera and Te Huna aren't world beaters but aren't cans either.

I think OSP can get Shogun down but can he keep him there for 5 rounds or finish him on the ground? He could choke him somehow but Shogun has good BJJ and on the feet he can and will tag OSP and i'm not sure his chin can take a beating from Shogun if he starts to land. Shogun is by far a better mixed martial artist and in his prime he'd have been -700 here. I think he's not quite washed up enough to lose to OSP, but he'd probably lose to Bader at this stage.

I liked the McCall bet more before the illness and I think I like Warlley more too but he's less of a proven commodity and is at a steeper price at -280ish now (-250ish when I fired from memory).

I don't have the best record betting on or against Shogun I think i'm 2-2, I had him in the Hendo rematch which he lost after winning r1 and had Forrest against him in the rematch, but I did have Chael over him as a dog and I believe I bet on Gus to beat him too. So today we'll move to either 2-3 or 3-2 betting on Shogun fights.

Assuming he's been current Shogun since he lost to Jones, he's 3-4 against Te Huna, Vera, Griffin, Hendox2, Chael and Gustafsson although it could easily be 3-3 with 1 draw. It's hard to see OSP going better than 3-4 against that crop of opponents though. I think he'd go 2-5 at most (I think OSP loses to Griffin, Hendo, Chael and Gus most of the time and is a small fav over Te Huna and Vera)

It's absolutely crazy to me that OSP is only 1 year younger than Shogun. Shogun def has an extra 5 years plus on his body but without looking it up i'd have expected Shogun to be 5 years older than him

Last edited by SwoopAE; 11-08-2014 at 09:29 AM.
SwoopAE is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-08-2014, 12:57 PM   #26227
SwoopAE
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
SwoopAE's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Australia
Posts: 20,948
Re: MMA Thread



After Lineker missed weight - they'd better remake this fight, looking forward to it
SwoopAE is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-08-2014, 01:10 PM   #26228
SwoopAE
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
SwoopAE's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Australia
Posts: 20,948
Re: MMA Thread

How is it the one all-finish card of the year is the one I get the starting time wrong on lol

/r/mma on reddit has the finish gifs if anyone just wants the finishes
SwoopAE is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-08-2014, 03:10 PM   #26229
SwoopAE
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
SwoopAE's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Australia
Posts: 20,948
Re: MMA Thread

Sect7g your bets are on and also proposed a prop for the remaining fights for a sweat that i'll assume is booked with the sides you picked unless I hear otherwise before the fights, gl
SwoopAE is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-08-2014, 03:43 PM   #26230
SwoopAE
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
SwoopAE's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Australia
Posts: 20,948
Re: MMA Thread

I've ended up with

4u Shogun
2u Alves
0.8u Covington/Almeida/Alves parlay at evens
0.1u 9 fight parlay w my picks
0.2u J.Lima
0.2u Rivas
0.5u Shogun fight u2.5
0.5u Alves fight u2.5
0.5u Covington fight u1.5u

Also had 2u McCall before fight got cancelled

and a 0.5u vigfree prop w Sect7G where whoever ends in the black wins and I have both Limas, Edwards, Rivas, Magalhaes and L.Silva
SwoopAE is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-08-2014, 03:44 PM   #26231
Sect7G
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: calling a spade a spade
Posts: 11,179
Re: MMA Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post
Sect7g your bets are on and also proposed a prop for the remaining fights for a sweat that i'll assume is booked with the sides you picked unless I hear otherwise before the fights, gl
Thanks a lot. Enjoy the fights. How about another xx to win $50 on Shogun? Want to tail you on this.

Does anyone have any idea how out of shape got after the Nelson fight... prior to that fight reports were that he ballooned up to 340lb. Is it possible for him to have gotten that big again since Nelson? Therefore it stands to reason he'd be going into this mini camp in better shape. Thoughts as I am def. betting on Hunt... but with some good news about his stamina might make a serious bet on it.
Sect7G is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-08-2014, 05:06 PM   #26232
SwoopAE
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
SwoopAE's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Australia
Posts: 20,948
Re: MMA Thread

So you want 100 total? Only got 50 on so far
SwoopAE is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-08-2014, 05:21 PM   #26233
Sect7G
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: calling a spade a spade
Posts: 11,179
Re: MMA Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post
So you want 100 total? Only got 50 on so far
Correct. $xxx to win $100.
Sect7G is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-08-2014, 05:36 PM   #26234
SwoopAE
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
SwoopAE's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Australia
Posts: 20,948
Re: MMA Thread

ok your other half of the 100 is on at -161 so risking 161.50 to win 100 total for shogun bet

dont think i can stay up long enough to watch the card live, will be back in the thread after it to avoid spoilers
SwoopAE is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-08-2014, 07:07 PM   #26235
mrabop
grinder
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Posts: 493
Re: MMA Thread

dunno what you guys see in shogun dude is washed up only way he beats osp is via brazil juicing laws if he takes it other than that osp free dollars
mrabop is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-08-2014, 07:11 PM   #26236
wpd5
centurion
 
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 150
Re: MMA Thread

5Shogun by KO/TKO +190 3u
shogun ITD +130 2u
2u shogun -160
2u alves -250

Think I like the +190 KO/TKO line the best
wpd5 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-08-2014, 07:55 PM   #26237
just_mo
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Scrounging for EV
Posts: 8,688
Re: MMA Thread

Pulled the SHogun trigger, -155
just_mo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-08-2014, 10:36 PM   #26238
Sect7G
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: calling a spade a spade
Posts: 11,179
Re: MMA Thread

Borderline DQ call if the ref had some balls in the Malgaheos-Smith fight.
Lots of 1st rd finishes so far.
Sect7G is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-09-2014, 01:33 AM   #26239
Sect7G
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: calling a spade a spade
Posts: 11,179
Re: MMA Thread

Any of u guys watching this? Jouban looking really good imo.

Alves milking injuries... real or not.

Last edited by Sect7G; 11-09-2014 at 01:39 AM.
Sect7G is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-09-2014, 01:44 AM   #26240
shane88888
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
shane88888's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Jersey Shore
Posts: 8,984
Re: MMA Thread

Gross.

Florian is spot on that it's idiotic for any American to fight in Brazil.

And, yes, he flopped those injuries. Pathetic culture.
shane88888 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-09-2014, 01:58 AM   #26241
Sect7G
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: calling a spade a spade
Posts: 11,179
Re: MMA Thread

I hear crickets...
Sect7G is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-09-2014, 02:04 AM   #26242
mrabop
grinder
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Posts: 493
Re: MMA Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by mrabop View Post
dunno what you guys see in shogun dude is washed up only way he beats osp is via brazil juicing laws if he takes it other than that osp free dollars
so easy how do you guys bet on shogun WOOOO SO EASY MONEY THIS IS TO EASY BABY anyone who didnt make money on this card shouldnt bet mma
mrabop is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-09-2014, 02:07 AM   #26243
just_mo
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Scrounging for EV
Posts: 8,688
Re: MMA Thread

Haha Shogun got starched? Jesus what a day.
just_mo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-09-2014, 03:35 AM   #26244
SwoopAE
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
SwoopAE's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Australia
Posts: 20,948
Re: MMA Thread

Well that sucks, picked most of the fights correctly, lost 3ish units anyway due to Shogun being more washed up than I thought. Really thought if he could beat Te Huna he could beat OSP. Looks like I may have got lucky on the Alves decision too.
SwoopAE is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-09-2014, 03:46 AM   #26245
Sect7G
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: calling a spade a spade
Posts: 11,179
Re: MMA Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by mrabop View Post
so easy how do you guys bet on shogun WOOOO SO EASY MONEY THIS IS TO EASY BABY anyone who didnt make money on this card shouldnt bet mma
Tell me is it going to rain in Mongolia tomorrow?

Last edited by Sect7G; 11-09-2014 at 03:47 AM. Reason: then I'd be impressed.
Sect7G is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-09-2014, 04:27 AM   #26246
just_mo
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Scrounging for EV
Posts: 8,688
Re: MMA Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by mrabop View Post
so easy how do you guys bet on shogun WOOOO SO EASY MONEY THIS IS TO EASY BABY anyone who didnt make money on this card shouldnt bet mma
Kindly vacate this thread
just_mo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-09-2014, 06:36 AM   #26247
RB87
adept
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 1,169
Re: MMA Thread

Lost 0.8 units this weekend Kovalev beat the hell out of Hopkins for 12 rounds but didn't see Shogun getting taken out in the first round like that. Threw that sloppy overhand right and doesn't have a solid chin anymore. I would say he is pretty much done now maybe a rematch vs Lil Nog in Brazil and then both dudes should call it a day.
RB87 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 11-09-2014, 06:57 AM   #26248
Swiiftx
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Swiiftx's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Mark it zero.
Posts: 7,991
Re: MMA Thread

Shogun should be done now, the way he went in there recklessly and gets caught by OSP's looping right hand is emberassing imo.
Swiiftx is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-09-2014, 07:49 AM   #26249
RB87
adept
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 1,169
Re: MMA Thread

Just seen that OSP called out Anthony Perosh or Fabio Maldonado after his win haha!
Still prefer that to the "anybody the UFC wants" line
RB87 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 11-09-2014, 08:01 AM   #26250
Swiiftx
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Swiiftx's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Mark it zero.
Posts: 7,991
Re: MMA Thread

Anybody the ufc wants is the worst answer, unless you're perhaps the champion and they keep lining up to challenge you, but even then you have a pretty nice opportunity to affect UFC who gets the next belt and I don't see a reason why you shouldn't try.

OSP callout of Perosh is just silly. The dude is not even top 20 ranked, Maldonado is a little better since he's at least top 15 (how, I don't know) but still he's behind the ranking of OSP so it doesn't make since because he just got of a victory vs a top 10 fighter (Shogun). But I guess he wants easy money fights, and can't really blame anyone for doing easy money fights but he'll have to know the win won't get him anywhere ranking wise.
Swiiftx is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 05:08 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online