Also originally thought Silva lock but the more I think about it the more of a chance I think Diaz has.

Concerned AS chin is shot as well, not from the first KO because of the angle he got hit, it was pretty much the worse way to stick out your chin while you're looking the other way and I don't see many ppl surviving from that one, even those w golden chins.

I'm more concerned with the 2nd knockdown weidman got on him in the 2nd fight. It didn't look like he generated that much force and still it happened. But Weidman power > Diaz power. Only pure ko I can remember from diaz is the lawler one. Also don't see how grappling is relevant as Diaz wrestling is non-existent and AS TDD isn't that bad that he allows Diaz to take him down.

But cardio is a concern and since Diaz finally doesn't have to worry that much about a takedown, he can let his hands go and just go strike for strike and hope his chin holds up, though AS is accurate as hell w his punches.

This is true; but I do think Aldo is on something, no proof obviously just a suspicion that he ran from the test. He fought dirty in the first Mendes fight with a blatant fence grab to prevent being taken down and the ref waved off multiple fake foul attempts late in the second fight even if you disregard the punches after the bell. I happen to be a fan of a bunch of his opponents he's beaten as well, and obviously want to see him lose. His attitude annoys me as well. He's obviously talented.

I just dislike him as a fighter

In theory Silva should destroy Diaz but I have no idea where his head is at since Weidman 1 and won't be able to confidently bet on him as a big fav until he destroys someone again. Stylistically, Diaz is smaller than him and a striker, therefore Anderson wins. Who knows if that'll actually happen though. I hope Anderson isn't done, I still want to see him fight Weidman a third time just due to the crazy ways the first 2 fights ended but I doubt we'll ever see it. I think Anderson should just do feature fight style fights at this stage unless he's serious about regaining the title, in which case he should get a #1 contender fight if he beats Diaz against someone top 5 while Weidman fights Belfort and Jacare

On another note I wonder how badly Dana wants Edgar to beat Swanson (who has been promised a title shot with a win in theory) so that he can make Aldo vs McGregor without people complaining it's undeserved

Finally just watched 179 last night. Was actually a really good card. Wasn't expecting much from it.

Made 12u on the card thanks to Dariush. No way he should have been a dog. I am a little upset my 3u Aldo/Mendes under bet missed.

I'm okay not taking a point there due to the late shot. The ref needs to be
between the two fighters, which he wasn't. Although I'm very much in favour if giving fighters benefit of the doubt in all situations like this.

Silva/Diaz in the distance is probably worth a bet up to -700. That will be the line I look for. So many unknown factors going into this fight, I don't think anyone is actually able to properly cap this fight.

Obviously this is a huge fight for the UFC and overtime it will get hyped and we will get a peak inside their gyms and find out through leaks how things are shaping up. I'm not going to bet it until December. It's a rare case where both fighters have been off for a long time and who knows what type of shape/mentally focused either will be.

lol, Seery/Vaculik odds released AFTER Seery replaced by Smolka on a few sites

I don't mind the look of Kelly as a +180ish dog, two iffy prospects and Kelly's at home although i've never seen him fight

Might bet Smolka if the odds are decent like -250ish even on short notice

Soa Palelei is tempting at -159 too and Whittaker at +125ish. Tempted to fire Iaquinta and Bisping too as dogs but will prob go small.

Don't really like any of the other prices other than Sterling as a parlay filler, he's not going to lose.

On other upcoming cards I like Shogun -110 and will look closely at openers for McCall, Warrley Alves, Dennis Bermudez if he's a decent dog, Edgar, Barboza, Pickett if he isn't a big fav, Pettis to beat Melendez, Lawler, like Travis Browne a lot vs Schaub even as a rare Schaub fan, love Tony Ferguson against Abel Trujillo would love to get him at -150 or whatever, Faber vs Rivera obv unless odds are unbettable

Probably Carla Esparza to win TUF 20 unless someone else really impresses before then, Varner to beat Dober, Struve as a dog to Overeem whose chin is so gone its crazy, Derek Brunson should beat Ed Herman easily, Nate Diaz is tempting as a dog to RDA since even though he's a less complete fighter I think RDA's falling in love with his hands and Diaz throws higher output, so will take Diaz at plus, Machida over Dolloway obviously, Cummins over Carlos Junior who hasn't faced a grinding american wrestler like him, Erick Silva to crush Mike Rhodes in r1 despite his awful cardio/gameplans, Dunham should outwork Damm, Lombard will beat Burkman with ease, Horiguchi should beat Gaudinot, Rousey ITD vs Zingano obviously.

A lot of the prices on those fights could be awesome or they could suck, but going to keep an eye on them.

Machida getting ridic good matchup vs Dolloway, still hoping he can somehow get the belt as he's my top 3 favorite fighters.

Hope Browne beats Schaub, which I think he will. Though, possibility exists Schaub somehow grinds out a decision over 3 rounds, but Brownes TDD is pretty sharp and his chin >>>> Schaub's chin. I'd give the technical advantage to Schaub when it comes to striking, but Browne is not far behind and chin is much more important then if you marginally have better technique (Reem vs HW's etc).

Curious about Barboza vs Green, Green has pretty good boxing and Barboza's weakness has been he gets caught vs decent boxers (Varner, Castillo, Cerrone etc). Will keep an eye on that price.

Yeah Green is less explosive than Barboza but has a better chin. I don't think Green ever wins by decision though and thats what sways me towards Barboza because both guys can finish but if it goes the distance I like Barboza

Sterling's fight is cancelled, Swoop. I was getting ready to bet Richie Vaciluk as a dog against Neil Seery until Seery was replaced by Smolka. I like Hester, Palelei and Brimage as favorites on the Aussie card and Iaquinta, Perosh and possibly Alvey as live dogs. Waiting to see if those lines get better.

Green hasn't finished anyone in years. Last tko was a miss reffed Nut shot.

Like barboza against anyone without a kill shot

Jimmi out now Rua vs OSP

wtf, Shogun rua vs anderson coaches for next TUF?!?! I suppose I actually like it, if they ever fight, both standup fighters, and we don't see nobodies making names of off these legends.

Ovince St. Preux any good?

for ref
was looking to bet Rua at +100 vs Manuwa,
you beat Rua you have earned my money down the toilet.

Appreciate Rua as a fighter, love to watch him fight, such skill, real authentic fighter right to the core,

OSP has athleticism and thats it as a fighter. Shogun crushes him everywhere unless OSP can take him down at will. I expect odds to still be around -110 each side but who knows

A Shogun in good shape should be -200-250 imo. How's OSP's takedowns?

I think Shogun will be like -200 or more and should outclass OSP on the feet and finish him. I'd imagine OSP will be able to land a few takedowns but Shogun should be able to threaten him on the ground and get back to his feet probably will be a similar fight to when OSP fought Mousasi back in Strikeforce. Only danger is Shogun gets exhausted in the third round and OSP lays and prays to decision.
I do like Shogun a lot though OSP's striking defence is lazy when he is tired and even a gassed out Shogun should be able to land bombs and smash him in the clinch. Should be a interesting fight even though the Manuwa fight was a more exciting match up.

I'm pissed. Rua was amazing value. Also OSP itd probably would have been a great bet too.

Idk what to think of this fight.

OSP is awful. If Shogun can't win this he definitely needs to hang it up.

This.

OSP is an incredible athlete and that's what's gotten him to where he is but his fight vs. Bader shows he has some of the worst fundamentals in all of MMA in nearly all areas.

shogun so overated as you can see will be all over osp

I agree Shogun isn't top 5 anymore or close to it, but I think OSP will really struggle with him - does anyone think OSP would last the distance with Gustafsson like Shogun did in a semi competitive fight? He's much more athletic than Shogun at this stage of their careers but Lucas Martins is much more athletic than Darren Elkins, being a smarter more technical fighter matters.

OSP was booked for a 3 rounder and now has 5 rounds on 10 days notice, could def be a factor.

I don't think he lasts 3 rounds with Shogun, although yeah it could make a difference as if he wins the first two rounds via lnp or something and fades it could help Shogun

Werdum line is getting absurd vs Hunt, I wanted Werdum +200 but Hunt is pushing towards +400 and I may have to make an odds play if it keeps rising even though I think Werdum wins

Also wtf is with all the Nov 8 Sydney card odds being out down to the prelims yet not even a main event price for the Nov 8 Brazil card yet? I hope I get some combo of Shogun, McCall and Warrley at decent openers.

Strongly considering firing Soa Palelei too, home crowd and Walt Harris lost to Nikita Krylov and Jared Rosholt who is Palelei's only recent loss, I think Palelei should be able to KO him here a lot or win the first two rounds

Whittaker price getting tempting too in a fight likely to be competitive with homecrowd judging etc.

Bisping +325 is tempting too, I see this as a pick'em fight if Bisping makes it out of the first round which he should most of the time. Rockhold finishes more often, but if it goes the distance Bisping could easily win the later rounds

Why is Whittaker a dog? What am I missing there?