I just feel like Shogun still has a better skillset than Manuwa, was unlucky to lose to Hendo 2nd time and crushed Te Huna in Australia. Could go either way, but I think I like Shogun at evens.

Added a few more bets for 179

1u Fili -110 (Holloway is very legit and possibly even top 10 now and Fili is TAM and TAM fighters are still rapidly improving, Arantes is the definition of 'mid level UFC guy' and I still think Fili is a prospect)
additional 0.5u Elkins -172 (I think he's going to take down Martins at will and grind him out)
0.5u Macario +205 (Magny's improving a lot but I think Macario's underrated and matches up reasonably well plus can't fade all the Brazilians in Brazil right - I think Macario's more like +150 here)
1.5u Reis -149 (I think Jorgensen's best days are behind him and Reis looked excellent in defeat to legit top 10 guy Yuri Alcantara and has a few decent wins other than that, I don't think Scott Jorgsensen can LnP him and Reis is more well rounded)

I got fourth :/

Hard not to feel crushed tbh...I played really well and was the best player at the FT by miles. Just couldn't win a preflop all in, literally 0/4. A9 < KK when I opened and the 10 bb stack picked up kings. AQdd < AThh even though JT2dd was the flop. AA < A3o, the same guy from the AT hand four-flushed me. And still I had a solid 30 bb stack four-handed when I busted, 88 < AQ, Q on the river for like 70% of the chips in play.

Got Mendes at +240 and Andre Fili at -120 that's me done for this weekends card.
Got 5 units on Rockhold at -300 but I'll arb out of that nearer the time of the fight.

I'm torn on the Shogun vs Manuwa fight. On the one hand Manuwa is more explosive, a better athlete at this point and has a lot less miles on the clock then Shogun but he lacks experience and is used to just blasting guys inside two rounds. When he faces someone that doesn't wilt he seems to slow down as shown in the Kingsbury fight.

Shogun is one of my favourite fighters of all time but its obvious he has slowed down a lot the last few years but he has a tonne of heart and if Manuwa doesn't put him away in the first two rounds I think Shogun is more well rounded and experienced enough to get throgh a few scares finish him later on. I'm slightly leaning towards Shogun but I'll probably just leave it and look to bet it live if its available.

Always hurts, hopefully you locked up a reasonable score but it always sucks not to win.

Bisping at +375 looking like a decent odds play, he could easily get above +400 at some stage, i'd say he's more like a +200 dog

I've ended up with quite a few plays on this next card all in the 0.5-1.5u range, we have roughly in order of bet size, Reis, Elkins, Stringer, Fili, Dariush, Mendes and Davis. I think i'll get 3 or 4 most of the time, but we have 4 dogs and 3 favs so that isnt too bad a ratio.

So, Cung lee not longer suspended as UFC dropped the ban they had on him (12months). Really unprofessional the way the testing was done, and the results are basically UFC has tainted Cung Lee's name now.

Likely he dodged a bullet on a technicality tbh unlikely the drs just made up the results but they didn't keep the sample which is ridiculous.

Rumors Cain is out and hunt might be in vs Werdum.... for interim championship

Doesn't really matter if the odds are 90% he cheated or it's 10% he cheated, fact is UFC tainted his name without proper testing done (which they knew beforehand). We will never know for sure what happened, but the damage is already done for Cung Lee. You're walking on a slippery slope if you do improper testing which has many true false results.

Pretty bad matchup for Hunt. If Cain only could stay healthy, he'd be getting so much more recognition world wide as he should demolish just about any HW. Also, news just broke. Meh.

Also, dream opportunity for JDS if Cain is out for a long time as he will be stripped of belt and JDS pretty much has a favorable matchup against all HW's (except for Cain and assuming he didn't take all of his soul in those 2 beatings).

Can Werdum even take Hunt down? This should be a pretty good matchup for him as long as his cardio holds up. Werdum's kickboxing has been looking very good lately though, if he can dial up the volume early and gas Hunt he should run away with it on points.

Hunt only has a 3/4 week camp and isn't known for staying in shape between fights. Werdum has been training to fight cardio monster cain. Really don't like hunts chances after the 2nd here.

Mark Hunt fighting for an interim title wonder what the odds on that would have been after his debut with a loss to Mccorkle. If I can get Hunt by KO at around +500 I'll probably bet it small as Hunt is the last of the Pride fighters that is still at the top of his game and out of all the big names that came over is the only one that made significant improvements.

As much as Hunt has improved I think Werdum is going to wreck him. Will be on Werdum to -200 he held his own in the standup with Browne and Overeem and if Bigfoot can fight Hunt to a draw (I was there live and if anything it was 48-47 Bigfoot) i'm pretty sure Werdum can beat him via being more well rounded and having better cardio. If Werdum could beat Hunt, then JDS, then Cain somehow he'd make a good case to be one of the greatest ever at HW.

Of course there's a risk Hunt puts him to sleep in r1, but I think Werdum wins this one especially with the short notice

Also if Cain is out for a while I guess it's time for an Interim belt

JDS vs Werdum 2 down the line for the belt starting to look possible

@yoyobo how does this affect our Cain vs Ronda last longer? I forgot what we settled on in the case of a champion being stripped of the belt for inactivity as opposed to retiring (if it happens) did we put it in the terms? I can search for the post I guess if we need to

I love the Hunt match up... only because I want to see as many Hunt fights as possible before he hangs it up. I'm gonna bet him at anything +200.

So 3 weeks, +30 pounds to shedd aka not in shape. He's going to gas even sooner.

I could see this opening anywhere from Werdum -110 to Werdum -350 and I wouldn't be surprised. I'd assume we get Werdum -200 Hunt +170 or something though

I wonder what the line will be on Werdum by Submission

Werdum sub was +431 vs Browne, would be very tempting at +300 or better vs Hunt imo, maybe even at +250. He could finish a gassed hunt by TKO, but outright KO seems fairly unlikely

I guess a lot depends on what price the fight actually opens at

Does anyone know the extent of cains injury?

just realised if anything happens to Aldo or Mendes before the Main Event, the UFC will have lost the original main event to UFC 176, 177, 178, 179, 180 and 181 back to back.

Stay healthy and on weight, guys...

I'm tempted to add a bit on Macario and Dariush and possibly more on Reis and Fili as well at the moment. Dariush and Macario prices seem to be getting better though so might do it last minute even liking current lines, Reis and Fili are probably going to get steamed though

If Cain gets stripped you're good. White Said he thinks a march return is possible, and Cain also fought at the end of 2013. I don't see it ending that way.

Also in theory Werdum should smash hunt. Not really sure how he is getting Hunt down though. Still probably take Werdum -180 due to the drastic skill difference on the mat, and short notice. Think Hunt is much more live than some think though.

Also there has been nothing Manuwa has done to show me he can even be competitive with Shogun on the feet. This fight reminds me of when we got +120 on Shogun vs Te-huna.

Shogun's striking is world class. People have this idea that Shogun has hit some massive downfall and I just don't see it. in the last 5-6 years he has KO wins over Liddell, Coleman, Machida, Vera, Forest and Te-huna. He should also have a dominant decision victory over Machida and a draw with Dan Henderson. outside of that he has a loss to Dan Henderson in a fight he was dominating, and losses to Chael Sonnen, Jon Jones and Gustafson, nothing to be embarrassed about. Not to mention he took Sonnen down and looked competitive against Gus.

Manuwa has wins over Kingsbury, Diabate and Jimmo. why is anyone impressed over this? Not to mention he looked awful vs Gus. A fighter which Shogun was quite competitive against.

I guess Shogun could have lost his chin to Dan. Outside of that I don't get how Manuwa stops Shogun from picking him apart and finishing him.... -120 is laughable, and I'm going to hit it pretty hard.

I tend to agree, I see Manuwa as more of a Te Huna level fighter who is in the 15-20 range and who will get badly exposed when he faces an even past his prime elite skillset against Shogun

If I had to take either side at a line I set, i'd set it at more like -170 for Shogun so i'd be very happy to get -110 or whatever the lines look like currently

Also @ yoyobo, just to clarify, fighter being stripped of the title is a loss, interim title is fine as long as fighter returns to unify titles before being stripped, either fighter retiring undefeated is a push and otherwise it's first to lose right?

I agree with your analysis. Only don't think Manuwa looked terrible vs Gustafsson (except for the finish), he actually landed some nice punches. Shogun is an awesome fighter, just lots of variance with that guy, is he injured, is he in shape etc. And also depends on the stylistic matchup, think Manuwa is his cup of tea, less if Manuwa was a cardio machine or had awesome wrestling. Shogun is definitely more proved than Manuwa, who we've only seen go against has beens and cans. We will definitely see what he's made of after this fight.

Check out this video on YouTube:
Connor McGregor shenanigans with Chad Mendes

http://youtu.be/c6HIZX3rfpI

Wait a cakewalk 30-27 is competitive now?

And in what world should Shogun have a dominant decision win over Machida?

This is like reading a political ad. If you have to try that hard, maybe it's not true?

Jimi Gus was likely the more competitive fight.

I think the odds are pretty much correct here and no real value on either. Still waiting on the ITD line as both have power and both will gas hard.

Werdum opened at -230 on Bovada expected him to be like -350 upwards. If you want to bet Werdum I don't think you'll get better then -260 that its at currently. Dariush line is getting very tempting definately think there is decent value at +180 might leave it a few days and see if it hits +200.