You know the don't bet against brazilians in brazil rule? This time, we're disregarding that.
Aldo vs Mendes
I've been on the record a few times as saying that Aldo loses in his next 3 defenses. If Mendes has made the improvements to his striking that I think he has and isn't sick this time, I think he beats Aldo close to half the time via mixing it up standing, likely better cardio and mixing in takedowns
Pick: Aldo +205 (0.5u)
Can Teixeira stuff all of Davis's takedowns? If so, he's going to win striking. If not, he could be in for a long night. I'm actually not sure he can do it. I like Glover at evens but not at the current line so i'm going with an odds play on a fighter I often pick against. Plus, how will the loss to Jones have affected Glover's mindset?
Pick: Davis +249 (0.5u)
I'm on the record as saying that Maldonado is vastly overrated, he hasn't beaten anybody good in a long time if ever and Stringer is not a can. Maldonado's chin will help but I think he'll eat a lot of shots and while his chin is usually great, Stipe cracked it pretty fast. I don't know much about Stringer but he seems to be a legit mid level guy from what I do know.
Pick: Stringer +134 (0.5u)
Elkins is a solid grinder with great heart and gameplanning but little explosive athleticism
Martins is an explosive if lazy kickboxer who was taken down repeatedly and dominated by Jeremy Larsen who sucks. If he doesn't finish Elkins quickly, he's going to get grinded out.
Pick: Elkins via extreme 30-27ing -171 (1u)
Dariush looked great bouncing back from his defeat to Ramsey, and while Ferreira won that fight and by MMAth 'should' be the favourite I tend to agree with the posters ITT who think Dariush has the higher ceiling. I think it's a flip and when in doubt take the dog. I just can't help but think that Dariush is going to submit him or something.
Pick: Dariush +144 (0.5u)
Nothing that stands out as amazing, but i'm going with Elkins and the four underdogs in the other fights for this one. I'm expecting at least one and quite possibly two or three of them to hit.
Parlay: all five of the above picks, 0.1u to win 9u and a sad night in Brazil
I agree with your 4 dogs. Think Stringer/Dariush get it done more than 50%. Mendes is good value. Davis seems likely to be the right side as well, but personally won't bet him.
I disagree with Elkins though. In his last 3 he was brutalized by Mendes, hurt badly by Hioki, and dominated by Stephens. All higher level than Martins, but Elkins just had no answer for Mendes/Stephens and only beat Hioki when he started to slow down.
I feel Elkins has stopped improving and the blue print to beat him is already made. He is tough and good at what he does but I'm not sure that is enough to beat martins right now.
Larsen fight is a tough one to forget because of how terrible he looked. however he has made huge improvements since then. He looked spectacular in his last 2 outings, especially against Alex White. He's moving his way towards the top 15 and I'm not Confident Elkins will be able to grind him out.
I guess at the end of the day, can he stop the takedowns of a smart and determined if physically not explosive fighter?
I'm banking on Elkins who I have faded in almost every UFC fight of his to get it done this time because Martins couldn't handle a bad TUF guy and won via random fluky KO in r3 and it's not like Alex White is a world beater.
I see wins over Hioki, Brandao, Siler, Carvalho, Omigawa, Ludwig and Pat Curran in Elkins corner. Those are some damn good wins. 3 of his 4 losses are to top 15 guys who would be -400 or more against Martins and the other was 5 years ago. Martins best wins are Alex White and Jeremy Larsen in a fight where he got his ass kicked for 2 rounds via being outwrestled. I feel like even though Elkins is only top 20ish, it's a BIG step up for Martins and i'm not sure he'll be up for the test, I think he'll get planted on his back repeatedly enroute to a 30-27 domination. His only chance is a puncher's chance and while that is legitimate, I think Elkins grinds him out around two thirds of the time. I don't think he's getting any better and I don't think he beats anyone in the top 15, but I think Martins sucks as a fighter and his lack of TDD will be badly exposed here.
Obviously my pick is Mendes +205 as well just saw I made a typo in previous post
I tend to agree I like Stringer and Dariush and think i'll get an average of 1/2 there which is always good for dogs and I like my side odds wise on the others
As strange as it is to say I kinda think Conor McGregor is going to dethrone Aldo more often than he dethrones Mendes if Mendes wins. I think Aldo matches up well-ish with Mendes, but he's peaked, and Mendes may still be improving. Edgar vs Mendes could go either way, same with an Edgar/Aldo rematch. Would be shocked if either guy dominated either fight.
I agree with Connor having a much better shot vs Aldo than Mendes. If Aldo beats Mendes I think Connor is the only threat for the belt. If Mendes beasts Aldo I feel his only real threat is Edgar.
Also you might have talked me out of a Martins bet. I feel he can implement a gameplan like Stephens did vs Elkins. Although I guess it is a big step up and not worth the risk at current odds. If he hits +200 I'll probably throw down a unit.
I agree with Connor having a much better shot vs Aldo than Mendes. If Aldo beats Mendes I think Connor is the only threat for the belt. If Mendes beasts Aldo I feel his only real threat is Edgar.
Connor does put that leg out though, Poirer kicked it a few times. Connors fluidity and apparent conditioning (he seems to be in very good shape and, according to him, he doesn't gas) might pose problems for Aldo, in the same way Pettis wrecked Cowboy by just being the more diverse and moving fighter.
Just watched Aldo vs Mendes again. Not nearly as close of a fight as I remember, nor was the fence grab as significant as I remembered. Aldo really out classed him in that fight.
Sure Mendes has made some drastic improvements since. However I was going under the assumption Aldo's fence grab was the only reason he was on his feet, and Mendes could take him down throughout the fight... Not sure I believe that anymore.
I feel bad for Rua, he was beating Henderson handily, and then that fluke KO happens. I thought he looked awesome in his 2 last fights, not top 5 material anymore though. I wonder about his chin these days as well, he didn't receive so many beatdowns in his early career from what I remembered, but the last ones have been pretty brutal, Jones demolished him, Gustafsson wore him out, Vera had a war with him and he took lots of punishment in that one.
for them.
