MMA Thread - Page 103 - Sports Betting - SportsBetting Strategy and Forum

Seems like word on the street is Keith is a talented fighter who could def beat Nijem. He clearly didn't have a great weight cut though and seems to be mainly a striker so Nijem should have a good shot here.

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06-22-2012 , 01:49 PM

#2552

SwoopAE

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Added small plays on Siler, Stone and Brown for the sweat (0.2 0.2 0.5u) and will probably parlay Ebersole+Nijem as well going to give it a few hours and see where the lines settle for the rest of the fights before making any other plays. The two major ones are 7u Hioki (I checked and I have 7 on him not 6) and 3.5 on Pearson (thought it was 4 but its 3.5), all of my other bets are under 1u.

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06-22-2012 , 02:57 PM

#2553

Jaymun

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Making my first foray into the sports betting world today (picking MMA because its one of the 2 sports I follow most).

I've got:
2u on Swanson
2u on Stout (I think he's an absolute lock)
1.5u parlay Nijem and Stout
2u on Hioki
2u each on Werdum and Franklin on Saturday

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06-22-2012 , 02:59 PM

#2554

SwoopAE

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I'm a huge Stout fan, just how badly has Fisher declined exactly? I've missed a few of his recent fights.

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06-22-2012 , 03:10 PM

#2555

Jaymun

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Quote:

Originally Posted by SwoopAE

I'm a huge Stout fan, just how badly has Fisher declined exactly? I've missed a few of his recent fights.

lost pretty decisively to Pearson, and got dominated by tavares in his last 2. His takedown defense has been looking pretty bad, and his striking has slowed considerably. He also wasn't exactly impressive in his win over the now-cut-and-fighting-nobodies Curt Warburton

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06-22-2012 , 03:21 PM

#2556

SwoopAE

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Pearson's actually good though. I agree (and hope) Stout wins most of the time but I just can't see value at the current line sadly

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06-22-2012 , 04:49 PM

#2557

just_mo

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Holy **** Maynard is down to -260. I'm gonna fire. Also Stone up to +135 goin for a small bet there.

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06-22-2012 , 04:58 PM

#2558

SwoopAE

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yeah i could hedge off for profit on Guida if I wanted to right now and Maynards -250 on 5Dimes - I got on Guida at +290

Could also hedge for profit on Pearson if I wanted

Hioki's into -160 on 5D too, waiting for Pinnacle to catch up...

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06-22-2012 , 06:13 PM

#2559

SwoopAE

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Added 3u or so on Nijem at -155 and 1u on Ebersole + 0.7u on Ebersole fight not to go the distance

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06-22-2012 , 06:19 PM

#2560

SwoopAE

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As of right now I officially hate Luis Ramos, that round was almost as bad as Mir-Crocop

10-9 Ramos

Matt Brown's not being aggressive enough

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06-22-2012 , 06:25 PM

#2561

DodgerIrish

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Woot My Man!

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06-22-2012 , 06:25 PM

#2562

SwoopAE

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Lit him up, boooooooooooom, amazing round by Brown there. Not sure about the stoppage as early as it was but Brown was about to drop him and finish him anyway so meh. Ramos has a chin, but not much else going for him. Don't think he's ever going to get a UFC win.

Would have been close on whether to score that round 10-9 or 10-8 Brown if the ref didnt stop it, depends how many more shots Brown landed in the last 30 secs I guess.

Matt Brown may never be more than a mid level guy but he sure knows how to turn a sloppy fight into an entertaining fight.

+0.5u for the card now

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06-22-2012 , 06:28 PM

#2563

just_mo

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Just watched Stone fight, felt he deserved decision 30-28. Happy with that bet.

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06-22-2012 , 06:32 PM

#2564

SwoopAE

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Added 0.2u on Catone for a sweat, because Camozzi sucks, no real value but whatever why not.

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06-22-2012 , 06:37 PM

#2565

DodgerIrish

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Catone gonna grapplefk CC

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06-22-2012 , 06:43 PM

#2566

SwoopAE

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The commentators are acting like Camozzi is a striker

Pretty sure that makes him a zero-trick pony. He's bigger and stronger than Catone but worse at everything.

10-9 Catone

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06-22-2012 , 06:51 PM

#2567

SwoopAE

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Missed portions of that round, seemed close, Camozzi got slightly better in the standup but spent the last round on his back, Catone for the TD but didn't do anything with it

Neither of these guys are impressing me really.

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06-22-2012 , 06:54 PM

#2568

SwoopAE

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lol sucks to be Catone there given Camozzi wasn't going to finish him and he was going to win the decision

whatever, next fight!

something tempting is EVERY fight is a fav to go to decision, I feel like betting for a finish in all of them might be +EV as it should be about half finishes from here i'd say

pretty sure i'm betting on Camozzi's next opponent, especially if casual bettors just see 'Camozzi by TKO' on his record.

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06-22-2012 , 06:54 PM

#2569

DodgerIrish

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Hedged on the under so I only lost 1 unit instead of 2

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06-22-2012 , 07:04 PM

#2570

SwoopAE

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I actually did as well for a few bucks when it was +212 or w/e but the bet was too small for it to matter. In hindsight prob bad as neither of those guys get a finish often. Got the under on Ebersole fight already and may take it on a couple others.

Got 0.4u or so on Siler here as a slight dog.

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06-22-2012 , 07:10 PM

#2571

SwoopAE

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Siler just became one of my favourite FWs that was awesome.

Wouldn't it be shocking if he went on to have the best career of his season of TUF with Brandao and Caraway in his weight class. Looking possible if he keeps it up.

Gambino is game to fight too, should get another chance.

Nasty cut too might have stopped the fight if Siler hadn't finished him anyway.

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06-22-2012 , 07:14 PM

#2572

just_mo

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Had Siler in a big parlay for fun lol impressive performance, would be cool if that cashes.

Can't believe Siler is like...a good fighter.

Camozzi was +2000 apparently going into the third...

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06-22-2012 , 07:16 PM

#2573

ebergman

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Quote:

Originally Posted by just_mo

Camozzi was +2000 apparently going into the third...

5dimes? Where do you get live lines like that?

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06-22-2012 , 07:18 PM

#2574

SwoopAE

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Quote:

Originally Posted by just_mo

Had Siler in a big parlay for fun lol impressive performance, would be cool if that cashes.

Can't believe Siler is like...a good fighter.

Camozzi was +2000 apparently going into the third...

Yeah i agree he looks like a scrawny kid but he's turning out to be an excellent fighter.

Camozzi lost the first 2 rounds and looked like garbage, that's why imo.

Least impressive TKO win i've ever seen for any fighter pretty much.